3:35pm
Part of me wants to load up on SSO (L) at the close but I’m not going to. Here’s why. I think all the bad news is factored in the market in regards to financials, but oil is the wild card. Oil made a new intraday record high today and is threatening to break out of its range tomorrow. Higher oil is not priced in. I think the markets expected oil to correct by now. With the threat of higher oil prices, I can’t be long this market at this point. I am encouraged by how well financials held up today. But I don’t want to be the first buyer. Wait for confirmation of a bottom before taking a shot on the long side. WV pattern not broken yet on SPX weekly.
2:59pm
Here’s what we know. Everyone is short. The bad news is overwhelming. The market cannot catch a bid. Can’t be long because its suicide and can’t be short because the selloff is so extended. Got to stay on the sidelines and wait for a sign of capitulation and short-covering. Until then, we are sitting on our hands. VIX still under 24!
2:18pm
Well, we were about to break out and then oil spiked to a new record high. There are just so many ways to keep this market down. It’s like an attack from all directions. It’s almost choreographed.
1:59pm
Watching XLF and GS for 2pm reversal signal. Need to break above downtrend lines (see chart below).
1:00pm
The only thing that makes me think we could bounce here is that the XLF is holding 21.14. Here’s the intraday chart. A break of the inverse H&S pattern’s neckline would spark a rally. Likewise, a break below 21.14 level would likely lead to further declines for the market.
12:38pm
XLF inverse H&S no longer valid because right side lower than the head now, but still holding 21.14 for now.
12:23pm
Watching possible inverse head and shoulders pattern on XLF intraday chart (great call out Clarke).
12:14pm
ES just made a new low but the XLF is holding up. Still has not broken Wednesday’s 21.14 low. We are beginning to favor a bounce here.
11:53am
Watching the volume on this bounce. So far its light.
11:49am
XLF held 21.14 support level (Wednesday’s low).
11:40am
Support levels on SPX: 1295 / 1273 / 1257 (see chart below)
11:37am
Does not look like a bottom is in yet. No volume buying.
11:10am
No bullish engulfing candle. No buy signal yet. Lennar CEO on conference call says housing market has not reached a bottom yet.
11:05am
A bullish engulfing candle on ES-10 minute would be a strong reversal signal.
11:03am
Markets not seeing any panic here. VIX up 10% to 23, but still relatively low. Just an absence of buyers. Stocks drifting lower. Don’t try to be the first buyer in. Wait for signs buyers are stepping in. Has not happened yet.
10:58am
XLF at new lows. ES selling picking up steam. C down 6%. GM down 11.5%. Oil near highs of the day.
10:51am
XLF not making new lows. Encouraging that financials not leading us lower.
10:48am
Buyers seems to be supporting us here. Won’t let the market fall apart. Let’s see if it turns into a rally.
10:42am
Covered SSO (L) - mental stop loss hit. May re-enter if buyers start bouncing this market on decent volume.
10:34am
Oil off its highs, now up $3. Nat Gas inventories came in as expected.
10:25am
GM is trading at $11.54 - wow!
10:18am
Market hanging in there. Oil up more than $4.
9:34am
Rick Santelli just summed it up. Goldman’s downgrade of stocks at multi-decade lows is not really new bad news, its just like getting hit over the head with a hammer of what you already knew. Market starting its rally attempt.
9:15am
1305 is previous low on ES. Possible double bottom pattern a possibility. Might see the ES pierce and move somewhat below 1305 before bouncing.
9:10am
The best time to buy is when its the hardest to buy. Use stops and discipline and you can make any trade in any market. We have a 40% SSO (L) with a stop at 1304 on the ES.
9:03am
Crude spiking at the open in floor trader. Up more than $3 over $138. This feels like the kitchen sink.
8:59am
If buyers don’t step up in the early morning, traders need to be careful. This market is on the verge of breaking down. There are various support levels on the way down, but the next major support level is around 1275. I still favor a rally today but need to be aware that a breakdown is possible. RIMM’s earnings miss have cast a shadow over technology leadership. I’m beginning to wonder if Goldman is long oil and short everything else and they are talking their book. Goldman downgraded GM to a sell this morning.
8:53am
Overnight, Goldman Sachs cut its view on the US brokerage sector to neutral from attractive, adding Citigroup (C) to its conviction sell list. The bad news just keeps pounding this market. Rumors flying that an auto company is going under.
8:40am
Light volume move lower in pre-market. We are buying SSO (L) down here.
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June 26th, 2008 at 8:52 am
I added a 6th position SSO this morning pre-market as well (~1307). Looking to improve my basis.
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June 26th, 2008 at 9:02 am
C looks like a double bottom. Time to buy under 18?
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June 26th, 2008 at 9:10 am
It sounds like GS can manipulate the market wherever they want to go. With all the bad news, it needs to be cautious to long here. S&P and Nasdaq are still far away from March low. Dow already hit March low and is gonna hit it again today. If it penetrates the low, we are able to come back in the near future.
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June 26th, 2008 at 9:11 am
It sounds like GS can manipulate the market wherever they want to go. With all the bad news, it needs to be cautious to long here. S&P and Nasdaq are still far away from March low. Dow already hit March low and is gonna hit it again today. If it penetrates the low, we are not able to come back in the near future.
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June 26th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Goldman Sachs’ intention and use of its ‘conviction sell’ list, is to freeze potential buyers into indecision at times when decision making is most needed, as they accumulate shares for themselves and their clientelle. This is a zero sum game…
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June 26th, 2008 at 10:55 am
quick and dirty - 10% correction from the S&P high of 1440 is 1296.
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June 26th, 2008 at 11:01 am
When to go long? Do we wait until 1275 ish?
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June 26th, 2008 at 11:32 am
a close under 1300 is bearish.
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June 26th, 2008 at 11:36 am
topping candle on oil… but the fact that there is no more news today is going to give the bears more power, and a close under 1300 is really bad news.
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June 26th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Head and shoulders on the USO (5 minute chart) 1 day.
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June 26th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Is it only me, or is there an intra day HnS forming on the UYG or the fan reversal pattern etc. whatever they call it.
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June 26th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
I meant inverse (bullish) HnS
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June 26th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Where is the DEFINATE BOUNCE that was predicted for yesterday or today?
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June 26th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
GM. Possible bullish divergence on 24years chart is forming.
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June 26th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
“I meant inverse (bullish) HnS” — Poof! went out the wiindow. So much for that.
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June 26th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Poof! went out went inv HnS the wiindow. So much for that.
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June 26th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
DEAD-CAT bounce.
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June 26th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
GM bullish diverg. on a 24 YEAR CHART…a 24 YEAR CHART lol
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June 26th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
24 year charts mean nothing, cuz the spacing is too far away
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June 26th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
USO has been consolidating all day horizontally, it’s intresting to see what it’ll do, if it falls at the end of the day and breaks the level we might be able to apply the same philosophy for the bigger 1 month picture of horizontal consolidation.
But if we don’t get that fall, and the XLF doesn’t break on high volume the 21.30 ish then we’re in for a really bad ending of the day and finally a bearish sentiment to lead us to new lows.
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June 26th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
XLF maybe breaking out here, we got alot of tech stocks on an inverse shoulders pattern, take a look at GOOG and AAPL with intense support right below them, we just need oil to break down, and we can see a nice 1% rally, and that might end the day with a bottoming candle.
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June 26th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
craig what are you thinking about your bullish outlook for the month of july?
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June 26th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Let’s see where we close and then re-evaluate.
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June 26th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Craig, it’s all about the creation of the North American Union and the loss of American sovereignity. Soon the Dollar will be replaced by the Amero and we will all be micro-chipped like dogs. L.O.L.
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June 26th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
what are your positions currently craig?
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June 26th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
GS BS with market today.
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June 26th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Idan, I have a 10% position in GOOG that I am down on. The rest cash.
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June 26th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
If we are able to rally towards the end of the session, we might see a bounce tomorrow. Dow is so oversold and needs correction.
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June 26th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
I’d rather end on the lows then get a bounce now, that way we get a bounce tomorrow.
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June 26th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
The WV pattern on SPX weekly, has lots of play on the fringe below the 200 weekly average. Its unfortunately one of these cases, where you may not know if it brokedown until after the fact. See the March lows, as an example. Once we broke under tuesdays intraday low, there was virtually no support on the way down. I added no new positions. They need to deflate this oil bubble, now. Even 10% would do it. Sentiment will change once that occurs, until then, a blow off top could still occur. Goldman Sachs is no one’s friend in this zero sum game. This should be clear.
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June 26th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Is my volume thing really bad or is the weakly down trend on the Dow this week on EXTREMELY LOW volume? and maybe only a fake out below the 200?
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June 26th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
nvm… i had a problem
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June 26th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Idan, Speaking of volume, I was noticing that XLF volume didn’t even break 150000 today. If this is a significant bottom, I would have liked to see more volume today in general. I can see this market getting down to 1275 easily before I am gonna start about thinking of going long. I’m 100% cash right now.
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