4:04pm
What a nice rally. Stay tuned for today’s video

3:37pm
Financials leading the market. XLF up nearly 5% in today’s session.

3:12pm
Coming into some resistance at 1273 on the ES. We have no plans of covering anything today. This is day 1 of a rally that should last at least a couple weeks.

2:54pm
We hit resistance yesterday at 1265 on the ES. There might be some resistance at that level and also 1273, but I think this rally has legs. After that, the declining trendline comes into play around 1285, but that will be lower tomorrow.

2:47pm
Rally coming to fruition. We could push much higher

2:35pm
Financials and the ES near session highs.

2:16pm
I like the way the market is setting up here. The table is set for a strong rally. Need to see volume buying come in here. 10 minutes left in oil trading with crude currently lower by more than $5.

1:47pm
The ES is holding the 50 moving average. This looks like an attractive entry point for an end of day rally. If the ES confirms a break below the 50 on strong volume, we will exit our positions.

1:07pm
Market acting well here. XLF and ES near session highs. Oil still weak. Market is taking its time on the way up, which is more sustainable. It will be important to see how the market closes. It’s critical that the market holds onto its gains today.

12:40pm
Jamie Dimon speaking in 5 minutes. This speech will probably be anticlimactic. But if the market wants to go higher, they will use Jamie’s comments as a catalyst, whether its warranted or not.

12:35pm
ES catching a bid. Financials actually leading the market higher. Strong volume on XLF push up. We added a 10% position in UYG (L) and another 5% in SSO (L). In total, we have 15% SSO (L), 10% (QLD), and 10% UYG (L).

12:20pm
GS looks like its setting up for a move higher. The XLF just printed above 19.57. The ES is holding above its 200 moving average. Oil is weak. The table is certainly set for an afternoon rally. We dipped our toe in a 10% SSO (L) and 10% QLD (L).

12:07pm
Recall that the XLF sold off yesterday after taking out its 52-wk low at 19.57. It is yet to trade above that level today, but is very close right now.

12:02pm
JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon will make a live speech at 12:45pm. The market looks poised to rally, but the volume is light and a catalyst is lacking. Oil is off its lows, but still down $5.

11:35am
We are prepared to put on a 30% SSO (L) if the market rally looks to have legs. QLD is another good play, which gets you 2X long the QQQQs. Oil is moving off its lows by about 75 cents.

11:30am
ES confirmed a 2nd close above the 200 moving average. But we are seeing some mixed signals from volume and the stochastic. We are still on the sidelines.

11:20am
ES candle closed above 200 moving average and needs a confirmation candle. XLF at session highs but testing 19.57 resistance.

11:13am
XLF testing session highs near 19.50. We are looking to put our SSO (L) back on if the market breaks out here.

11:08am
Oil is really falling apart here, now down under 135.50, but the market’s reaction remains muted. The XLF still under 19.50 and the ES under its 200 moving average.

11:03am
Oil now at session lows below 136.

10:52am
Bottoming candle on the ES but the volume is light. XLF near the bottom of today’s range.

10:24am
Oil approaching session lows near 136.

10:21am
The ES continues to find support at its 20 moving average and resistance at its 200.

10:17am
ES cannot break the 200 moving average and the XLF cannot break 19.50. Higher interest rates help lower commodity prices but do not help the fragile credit markets. I am not sure whether oil can sell off and the financials can rally at the same time.

10:09am
Market trying to rally above 200-moving average with financials showing some signs of life. Oil showing little buying interest trading under 137. If the ES can confirm a close above the 200 moving average, we will re-enter SSO (L).

10:01am
Pending home sales down 4.7% from April - worse than expected.

9:59am
Home sale data due out momentarily.

9:55am
The ES just doesn’t want to rally above its 200 moving average, despite the selloff in oil. Financials cannot catch a bid. We covered our SSO (L) position and may re-enter lower. This action is not encouraging for those trying to play a bounce.

9:50am
ES candle closed below the 200 moving average, but oil just made another leg down. Let’s see if this can propel the market/financials higher. Oil now trading at 136.

9:47am
Financials not participating. That is not a good sign. If the ES cannot hold the 200 moving average, we are going to cover our SSO (L) position and look to re-enter lower.

9:41am
Oil remains weak trading under 138. The ES is breaking out above its 200 moving average. Need confirmation. We are holding a 30% SSO (L) position.

9:30am
Oil still under 138. The ES is hovering just below its 200 moving average, which sits at 1254.

9:07am
Oil making new lows below 138. Oil is now trading below the 140 support level so there is potential to see a serious selloff in crude today.

9:00am
The ES is showing a bearish divergence on the stochastic, indicating a selloff is possible this morning. However, this is pre-market action and buyers could show up at the open. The ES got as low as 1236.50 earlier this morning. StockTock is calling for a market bounce beginning today. Oil is cooperating so far but financials also need to participate.

8:57am
The dollar strengthened on Bernanke’s comments, and oil is now trading under 139, though rebounding off its lows. The ES found resistance at its 200 moving average on a 10-minute chart.

8:55am
Bernanke said that he is considering extending its new credit facilities beyond 2008, and plans to issue mortgage lending regulations next week. Meanwhile, OFHEO Director Lockhart said FRE and FNM are adequately capitalized, and that a worst-case scenario is nowhere near happening.

8:45am
Good morning. Dollar up, oil down, futures trading higher after Bernanke’s speech.