4:00pm
To recap the important technical events today, the S&P hit and pulled back from resistance at 1291/92, which represents a 38.2% retracement. The XLF closed below its 22.50 resistance level. Oil finished lower by about $4 and has now retraced 38.2% from its initial move higher in February. Stay tuned for today’s video.
3:43pm
Market is running out of time to make a major move before the close.
3:39pm
ES threatening to break below the triangle.
3:17pm
Still stuck in the triangle. Volume light. Keep in mind that after the close, we hear earnings results from AMZN, MCK, MOH, NE, QCOM, RYL, SLM and TEX.
2:55pm
The ES is trading in a tight triangle pattern.
2:46pm
Fed’s Plosser continues to hammer the point that the Fed must raise rates to combat inflation.
2:38pm
22.50 appears to be holding resistance on the XLF. The ES has not decided which way to break yet.
2;30pm
Markets being supported by falling crude oil, which is now trading near 124.50, down almost $4 today.
2:28pm
The XLF is trading above 22.50 and is showing impressive resiliency, helped by BAC’s dividend declaration. However, the volume is on the lighter side . Nonetheless, the price action must be respected. If the ES breaks above its intraday sideways channel, its doesn’t make sense to be short. Don’t fight the trend if the trend is still higher. I’d rather be late than early.
2:25pm
I will add to my UNG position under 46.24.
2:10pm
Crude oil trading at session lows to 125.16. The ES is consolidating sideways on its 20 and 50 moving averages.
1:55pm
Fed’s Beige Book out early: “US economy has slowed somewhat, price pressures elevated or rising”. Market falling on the release.
1:44pm
Financials spiking on news out of Bank of America (BAC) that they have approved a 75M share buyback and declared a $0.64 dividend.
12:33pm
The ES has fallen from the 1291 resistance level, and is now below the 20 and 50 moving averages. There is some support at 1277, which is the session low. After that, look for support at the ascending 200 moving average at 1269. Also, make note that the 1291 resistance level was a 38.2% retracement and coincided with the SPY 60-minute 200 moving average.
11:00am
The XLF did not break 22.50 on an hourly chart. SKF could work here. Use 22.55 as a stop.
10:45am
ES hit resistance at 1291. Watch for a reversal. I really like UNG here.
10:20am
XLF pushing higher above resistance. ES approaching 1291/92 resistance level. Do not try to call a top here. Wait for sellers to take control. Oil inventories in 15 minutes.
9:43am
XLF rising towards 22.50 level, which is strong resistance.
9:36am
Natural Gas (UNG) looks like a buy right here. We bought some at 47.16. Has support beneath it at its 200 moving average on daily chart. The commodity is very oversold.
9:21am
We expect to see sideways to down consolidation today. A close above the 20-moving average would confirm a break of that level. The rally needs to pause and gather some energy or it is likely to fail.
9:16am
Good morning. The futures are trading higher by 5 points to 1279. Oil is trading lower by more than $1 to 127.15.
SKF moving up premarket…would you chase it here?
I like to wait until 9:45 or 10:00 because that tends to give the best entry point. The XLF might retest 22.50 in the volatile opening minutes. Sometimes, I miss the move by waiting, but usually its works out better. You can always put some on now and wait to put the rest on.
Will we see USO up near 106-108 today? we are decending ever so slightly on low volume
are you a buyer of SKF right now craig, or wiating for the crude inventory first?
I think SKF is a good play here. The buyers are still in control though, so wait for sellers to take over. See if they can push the XLF down to 22.35. Volume buying seems to be drying up.
Oil Inventories - I keep banging the drum for the 5th week in a row, inventories of finished goods gasoline/distilates rise again. The market is still saying the price of crude is too high.
1291. we just reached the 38.2 Fib. retracement. in 7 days…
XLF continues to power ahead. Look at the 1 year of XLF. You will see many hits in early 2008 of support and then resistance later of the ~24 level.
are you still looking at holding the UNG despite some bearish energy inventories?
Craig, do you think the indexes are going much lower than this today and tomorrow?
The xlf keeps bouncing close to it’s 10 minute 20 SMA and seems to use it as support, is this a good time to cover the short?
I’m in SKF …when would be a time to sell…any ideas?
I’m guessing the 20 SMA 60 minute of the XLF which is right now at 21.23$ if you want to be safe.
Thank you Idan. Are you in SKF?
I’m not in a rush to cover SKF. Might have downside to the 20 moving average on the daily chart. Keep your stops and lets the trade work.
I own SKF, and SDS, also own UNG, and I balanced it with a QLD position which i bought 3 days ago.
That way my risk is somewhat limited, but I do expect more downside, I own options on all these.
Craig, I’m having a hard time finding the 20 moving average…can you give me a ball park figure…Idan wrote
$21.23 above, but I believe that was the hourly.
the daily one is at 20.07 right now and is ascending.
Yea, 20.07. This is a swing trade, assuming 22.50 was a short-term top and will now fall to the next major support level. As the trade works, you can move your stops down to protect your gains.
We might even see the XLF try to touch the 20.50 level yet again as it consolidates from the huge move lower. That will set up really nicely for a short at 2 pm…
Are you going to cover uNG if it falls under the 200 SMA daily?
No, but I will add to it if the volume remains light., which it has been on this recent push lower.
BAC- looks like Ken Lewis was telling the truth! How about that! (joking…) . Those who bought at 18.85 have a 13.58% yield…
All the stocks on that SEC 30 day non -naked short list should help put a floor under the SP500’s overlying trend for the next few weeks.
Craig.. what do you say.. double top formation here?
Gold continuing to fall.
Could this be a bear flag forming on the XLF today?
It certainly could be. I want to see more sell volume. The sell candles have light volume and the trend remains up, so let’s be careful.
Here we go, double top formation.. some volume coming in to the financials
Tomorrow will be an Oil rally and a down day for stocks. The SKF will hold a floor right here at 115.04(Crossing my fingers).