3:50pm
ES held its 50MA. 10 minutes left in trading. We are holding our SSO (L) position and will look to cover on strength tomorrow. The S&P has a shot at the 1320 level before technical selling shows up. This is the week of options expiration so cautious is advised. Stay tuned for today’s video.
3:25pm
ES fighting to hold its 50MA.
2:59pm
ES touched its 50MA and is now bouncing off that level.
2:55pm
Crude oil has rallied back and is now near the flat line in electronic trade.
2:35pm
The KRE (Regional Bank ETF) is up 5.5% today and has pierced its 200MA on its daily chart. The XLF is pulling back and cannot seem to hold the 22.50 level.
2:37pm
Selling in ES picking up. 50 MA sits at 1300.
2:29pm
Crude oil rallying off its low on increased volume. ES threatening to break below its 20MA. Needs a confirmation candle.
2:13pm
ES pulling back. 20MA sits at 1307 and may serve as support.
1:38pm
I’m eying the 1320 level as a profit taking point for the S&P. That’s a 50% retracement. (click image to enlarge)
1:29pm
The S&P is at fresh session highs. Commodities continue to get hammered lower. The XLF is trading above 22.50
12:20pm
The equity markets continue make their way higher, at session highs. XLF approaching potential resistance at 22.50.
12:01pm
As I type, UNG has fallen sharply, effectively voiding out a WV pattern. However, it remains above its recent lows. Too difficult to call a bottom in this one. Oil at session lows near 113. ES at session highs.
11:53am
Possible WV pattern on UNG 10-minute, but other commodities struggling (oil, gold, coal, steel).
11:29am
Crude oil falling under Friday’s low, heading towards 114.
11:08am
ES has broken above 1300. Have to be long until the market gives us a reason not to be.
10:43am
To this point, the S&P is trading in a narrow range on light volume, shaping up what could be a consolidation day. But in this market, tight range days are a rare occurrence.
10:25am
The ES just touched 1298, but has not broken above it.
10:03am
The ES is trading just under Friday’s high of 1298.
9:54am
Good morning. Indexes flat so far this morning. The dollar is off its highs, but oil is up only 13 cents despite geopolitical risk in Russia/Georgia.
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August 11th, 2008 at 10:49 am
EMC:
EMC chart looks interesting. Downtrend line and 50SMA are aligned. Stock is right on the line.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=emc
Interestingly, EMC seems to trade in lock-step with the price of VMW (VM Ware - owned 85% by EMC). That chart is in no man’s land. Gaps on July 8th (53 to 40) and Jul 9 (40 to 37.75) could be filled.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=vmw
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August 11th, 2008 at 10:52 am
As of right now the sideways action in the financials is mostly due to the uncertainty with the war. What concerns me most is that Russia has every incentive for prolonging this conflict:
-They benefit with the price of oil
-They’re obviously giving the West a bad PR job.
-Judging from the way this conflict is going, after the Georgian pre-emptive strike, Russia may realize they might not have another chance to take out the Georgian military infrastructure with public opinion on their side. They’ll try to take take full-advantage of it.
Thoughts?
[Reply]
August 11th, 2008 at 11:08 am
Well, I suppose it all depends on what type of supply disruptions are possible here. To this point, Georgia has not bombed any oil pipelines that flow through Russia… so we’ll have to see if this conflict will affect the energy markets. So far, no sign of that.
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August 11th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Guys, I’m starting to accumulate FDX puts. MA - exit at 248. Seems like today.
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August 11th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
TSO rallying
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August 11th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
What caused huge spike in TSO?
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August 11th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
head and shoulders xlf?
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August 11th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
TSO has huge short interest. As oil moves lower, more shorts will cover as the crack spreads improve.
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August 11th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
bull flag in MA
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August 11th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
wow. Mos is a falling knife.
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August 11th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Craig,
1318 to 1321 seems to be a key level. Is there a gap in the s/p500 chart at this level. Gaps seem to usually get filled on upside and downside. On the way down in june/july, there was a gap at 1327. We filled it and then went down another 120 points. Also watching the vix, it is around 19.75. Complacency is usually around 17.
Thanks
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August 11th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Celtics, I don’t see any gaps on the S&P. Do you?
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August 11th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Craig,
I am not sure but on june25 and june 26 there seems to be a gap around 138-1321 level. Let me know what you think.
Celtics
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August 11th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
You’re right, 1316.29 to 1321.97. Definitely want to watch those levels for potential resistance.
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August 11th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
volume increased for xlf.
Craig, what signs to you look to for confirmation of reversal?
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August 11th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
XLF “MA” pattern?
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August 11th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
A reversal to the downside? You would want to see a double top, or head and shoulders formation, with a breakdown on increased volume. Also watch for topping candles on strong volume. And for confirmation, you need follow through selling on strong volume. It will be interesting to see if XLF closes above 22.50
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August 11th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Mot sits past resistance of 10.06. Any thoughts on MOT?
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August 11th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
The today’s one-minute XLF chart looks like a 4 month daily of the SPY…It is interesting to see patterns repeating themselves…
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August 11th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Gold is collapsing… towards 810.
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August 11th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Craig. Does USO candle look like a hammer on daily and weekly chart to you?
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August 11th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
It’s a hammer candle, but the volume was not overly impressive. Calling a short-term bottom here is still very risky.
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August 11th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
That’s what I also feel. Thank you.
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August 11th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
LDK baby!
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August 11th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Does this mean we can buy JASO, and csiq with confidence.
Also im seeing alot of topping candle patterns in alot of the stocks I follow cake, ndn, etc.
Does this mean we are going to get a reversal over the next few days possible, or test 1320 then fall.
Any one looking to get short?
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