4:12pm
The bears did not sell with any conviction today, and that may be a bullish sign for the remainder of the week. Stay tuned for today’s video.
3:47pm
The S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow are all heading for negative closes, but the IWM is positive. Small Caps continue to outperform. Commodity related stocks performed very well today.
3:23pm
ES pulling back from its 200MA.
2:48pm
ES rallying into the 200MA. First hit should serve as resistance.
2:10pm
ES has rallied above its 50MA. The next upside target is the 200MA (1292). Oil and nat gas have pulled back off their highs.
1:50pm
Breakout above 50MA questionable. Candle closed at the low.
1:40pm
ES attempting to break above 50MA. Needs a confirmation candle.
1:29pm
ES breaking above 20MA. Next resistance level at 50MA (1283.75). Commodity names working well today.
1:07pm
UNG: next resistance: 41.45 - 41.57
12:55pm
ES struggling to move above it 20MA (1279). If it can, the 50MA (~1284.25) is above and will likely serve as resistance. Oil and nat gas are at new session highs.
12:36pm
Nat Gas, new highs. Volume to this buying.
12:09pm
Oil at session highs near 116. Nat Gas also rallying to session highs.
11:54am
Oil approaching session highs near 115.50. The ES is trading nears its lows of the session. Volume is light, and a pullback to the ascending trendline (~1273) looks like a good buying opportunity. But keep in mind, this is options ex. A test of the 1262 level is also possible. If we hold 1262, the pattern of higher lows will remain intact.
11:41am
Seeing some strength in energy names today, with KOL (coal group) +4.1%. OIH +2.8%, XLF +1.9%.
11:00am
President Bush to speak on the Russia/Georgia conflict at 11:15am.
10:57am
Just wanted to note that the ES bounced perfectly off its 200MA on the 60-minute chart at 1278. The market still looks weak and may test the ascending trendline under 1275.
10:35am
Inventory Results: Draw down in supplies greater than expected.
Crude -400K
Gasoline -6.4M
Distillates -1.7M
Utilization 85.9%
10:30am
ES moving put to new lows under 1280. Oil higher by about $1 ahead of the inventory report.
10:40am
Oil higher by $2.50 to 115.50
10:08am
Inventory expectations:
Crude: +250K
Gasoline: -2M
Distillate: +1.8M
Utilization: 86.7%
9:53am
Natural gas at a fresh 6-month low.
9:46am
Financials leading the market lower again, XLF -2.5%. Oil is higher by more than $1.
9:27am
Market looks very weak heading into the open.
9:23am
President Bush to make a statement on the Russia/Georgia conflict, timing uncertain.
9:05am
Remember, we will hear oil and gas inventories at 10:35am.
8:51am
The Wednesday of option expiration week tends to be volatile with large moves in both directions in order to shake out the weaker players. Be cautious and patient today. The ascending trendline on the ES is between 1272 and 1274. The 200MA on the 60-minute chart is around 1278.
8:43am
Good morning. The S&P E-Mini Futures Contract (ES) is trading lower by 7.50 during the pre-market. Oil is higher by 60 cents.
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August 13th, 2008 at 9:17 am
do you think we’re going to have more supply this time around?
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August 13th, 2008 at 9:26 am
I wouldn’t want to speculate or trade this data. But it sure will be interesting!
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August 13th, 2008 at 10:06 am
Anybody know if the naked short selling ban has been lifted?
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August 13th, 2008 at 11:09 am
xlf target to 20?
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August 13th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Looks like the XLF has downside to 20.
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August 13th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Hi guys,
just took a trading position in HK (Petrohawk Energy). Just yesterday it retested its Aug 4 low on high volume. Today it has a nice bounce off. Two gaps to fill between 29 and 32. I think this will be a good long-oil trade.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=hk
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August 13th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Nice action in TSO.
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August 13th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Craig isnt that odd action that must signal oil is going to go down further. As shouldnt TSO be down since oil is up. Maybe some people know something we dont
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August 13th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Well, TSO does not move perfectly inverse to oil. TSO should rise as the crack spread improves. If traders feel that oil has topped and will head lower over the next 6 months, oil may bounce while refiners rally on the adjusted outlook. There is heavy short interest in TSO, and the shorts may use a rise in oil to cover into. The refiners tend to move at odd times, and can be difficult trading vehicles for short-term traders. I am long TSO and holding, without paying too much attention to the day to day swings.
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August 13th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
WTF UNG?
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August 13th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
criag, inverse head n shoulders on the spy?
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August 13th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Oil and multiple oil companies are approaching it’s upper trendline.
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August 13th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
TSO/Refiners - Anyone interested in these, read Craig’s assessment above. It is also my view, and I am also long TSO in my core holdings. If a trader believes oil is in a short/intermediate term downtrend, then refiners are in the early innings of their recovery.
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