4:00pm
Some heavy volume buying came in at the close, perhaps short covering. SPX finishes with a doji candle.
3:56pm
Still have not confirmed a break below support. Today is nothing more than a light volume day of consolidation. But the choppiness was maddening.
CNBC’s Gasparino recently reported a number of measures that may be included in the final bill. He said the plan may be approved on Saturday.
~ some sort of restriction on executive compensation will be included in the final bill
~ may include a 2-yr ban on gold parachutes
~ may include a provision under which certain participating companies must provide warrants as collateral
~ speculates the final bill may be split into two $350B allotments
3:41pm
Market testing support once again. At some point, the floor is going to cave in.
3:34pm
PIMCO’s El Erian: Urges the pass of rescue package as markets are “deteriorating rapidly”.
3:30pm
Market remains very indecisive. ES moving back into resistance at 20/50 moving averages at 1191.50
3:28pm
PPC halted, news pending
3:23pm
ES testing support once again. Holding so far.
3:00pm
Seeing significant buying in treasuries at the short end of the curve. Shows continued stress in credit markets. TED spreads back above 300 basis points.
2:52pm
Very choppy trading.
2:43pm
SPX 10-minute: Breakout Needs Follow Through
2:19pm
Bill Gross: Bailout plan could return 10-15% to the gov’t. Willing to help administer the bailout process “at no fee” if other participants agreed to work on the same basis.
2:14pm
Financials leading the selling over the past twenty minutes, turning consolidation into a selloff. XLF at session lows.
2:06pm
SPX 10-minute:
2:00pm
WSJ: Congress considering approval of rescue package either in partial or conditional form.
1:41pm
ES consolidating above its 50MA. Continued consolidation into the 2:00 timeframe would be healthy.
1:24pm
VIX and treasuries falling. Rally gaining strength. 200MA should serve as resistance at about 1202.
1:17pm
CNBC: GOP officials say White House accepts executive pay curbs as part of the bailout package.
*** 1:30pm: CNBC: Treasury sources say this report is not true ***
1:12pm
ES rallying above the 20MA (1188.75) and into its 50MA (1194.00).
1:08pm
Market trying to break out on announcement that President Bush will address the nation on the bailout plan at 9pm ET.
1:05pm
ES 5-minute: Coiled Spring
12:58pm
As the market churns, anybody want to explain why IBM is on the ‘Cannot Short List’? Last time I checked, IBM was not a financial company.
12:44pm
Don’t worry! More testimony from Bernanke and Paulson at 2:30pm!
12:32pm
Let me clear up confusion over the Fib retracement levels and my outlook. I am considering the massive short squeeze beginning last Thursday as the start of a new trend higher. I am considering the 61.8% pullback a corrective move. Could I be wrong? Obviously. But until support breaks, this is my stance.
12:19pm
Capital One Financial (COF): Underperform rating maintained at Merill. Price target: %36. Estimates lowered.
12:16pm
ES attempting to rally above its 20MA (1190), which it has not been able to break above (with confirmation) since the pre-market. Volume has been diminishing throughout the day.
12:13pm
The market ‘feels’ very bearish today, but we continue to hold the 61.8% retracement. A break of that level may be shorted with a stop loss just above support. Of course, a fakeout move lower before a rally is always possible. Until the 61.8% retracement break, I maintain a bullish bias.
11:58am
SPY 10-minute:
11:27am
S&P lowers ratings on Washington Mutual (WM) to CCC from BB-, outlook negative.
11:24am
Crude falling to session lows at $107.34
11:20am
According to sources, merger talks between MS and WB have ended for now. MS reportedly to turn its attention to Mitsubishi.
11:18am
ES giving back recent gains. Holding above session lows. This is not bullish action.
11:15am
SPY 10-minute:
11:11am
GM reportedly notes “significant progress” on a plan for boosting liquidity by up to $15B.
11:10am
Bernanke: Bailout plan is not a stimulus plan, but if it helps the economy recover, the Fed may have to raise rates sooner than expected.
10:58am
I am not impressed with the decreasing volume on this bounce. ES above the 20MA. Next target is the 50MA (1197.75). Would like to see some consolidation followed by some volume buying.
10:50am
Crude hit a wall at $109.50 and has moved lower, under $108. Gold is under $900. The dollar has rallied back toward session highs.
10:49am
Bernanke: Markets require confidence that the bailout plan will provide sufficient power. Should not be done in dribs and drabs.
10:41am
ES rallying into its 20MA (1193.50).
10:40am
Senator Reid: Bailout plan must be done right, notes that it can take until the election.
10:35am
Oil Inventory Data: Crude: -1.5 v -2.5Me | Gasoline -5.9M v -3.8Me | Distillate -4.2M v -1.5Me | Utilization 66.7% v 78.7%e
Crude initial reaction: slightly higher (refiners rallying)
10:31am
Oil Inventory Expectations: Crude: -2.5Me | Gasoline -3.8Me | Distillate -1.5Me | Utilization 78.7%e
10:30am
No confirmed break below 61.8% retracement level. Buying volume picking up, but still on the light side. Treasuries giving back some gains.
10:20am
ES 10-minute candle closed under the 61.8% retracement level (1186.50). It’s important for the market to save this level and not confirm a breakdown. Not seeing any volume buying. Sellers definitely in control.
10:10am
Solar names near session highs.
10:07am
Treasury markets continue to push higher (usually a bearish indicator for equities). VIX at 36.30, above yesterday’s high, but still within the important 35-37.50 level.
10:00am
Bernanke: Reiterates that if Congress does not act, markets could face “very serious consequences”. Downside risks to the US economy remain. Inflation should moderate but significant risks remain. Commercial real estate financing is much tighter.
10:00am
Aug. Existing Home Sales: 4.91M v 4.94Me, -2% m/m (prior revised from 5.00M to 5.02M)
Months of Supply: 10.4 v 11.2 m/m
July Median Existing Home Price: -9.5% y/y to $203K and down 4% from $212K in July
9:56am
Aug. Existing Home Sales due out at 10am. Keep in mind, this is a key reversal time.
9:55am
ES fighting to hold its 61.8% retracement.
9:48am
The XLF is trading lower by 0.6%. Tech is performing well this morning, in positive territory. Oil service names are strong. Retailers are weak.
9:45am
Oh well for the bottoming candle. ES making fresh session lows. Treasuries rallying toward yesterday’s highs.
9:40am
Beautiful bottoming candle to start the session on the ES 10-minute.
9:35am
Credit market conditions continue to show stress. The 3-month treasury yield is down to 0.47%. While the spread between LIBOR and treasury rates have risen.
9:26am
The light volume selling into the open may be a bullish setup.
9:20am
Gold has rallied back above $900 and the dollar index slumps down from yesterday’s high. A retest of the 76 support level may be in order. Crude is trading near $109. The S&P E-Mini Futures (ES) are off their highs, trading near 1195 after the news that Berkshire Hathaway is investing in Goldman Sachs (GS). GS is trading just a few dollars above where it closed yesterday, after being up more than $10 after hours yesterday.
Good morning.
As if there wasn’t enough testimony yesterday, we will get another dose of theater today when Bernanke and Paulson testify before the Joint Economic Committee. Traders will also be reacting to Berkshire’s investment in Goldman Sachs. We will hear Existing Home Sales data at 10am, and the weekly oil inventory data at 10:35am.
Check out these interesting charts from Econompic Data:
This chart shows the cost of all the government’s bailouts and rescue packages to far. It includes the potential auto bailout but excludes potential lending facilities and costs associated with the conversion of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanly into bank holding companies. To give this some perspective, the $1.2T is about twice the cost of the War on Terror.
This chart paints a picture of how quickly and drastically things have changed in Investment Banking:
September 24th, 2008 at 6:41 am
Welcome aboard Stock Jock,
It’s great that you have chosen to share your talents here at my #1 site for up to date market information. We welcome you and appreciate the opportunity to benefit from your years of knowledge.
Thank You
Kind Regards,
E-mini
[Reply]
September 24th, 2008 at 9:06 am
Good chart above about the more accurate account of the running tab of bailouts. I saw a similar one earlier.
SOLAR INVESTORS- Big news last night. The Senate finaly passed the federal tax credit extension after months of failures. It is lumped in with a 100 Billion tax package. The President has indicated he will not veto the bill and this should easily have House majority approval. Let’s see if the media’s general ‘tone’ towards foreign solar polysilicon, wafer, and panel manufacturers changes to a more positive bias now. Of course this news was buried, but it was fairly easy for me to find out that Lindsey Lohan has been dating a woman…
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE48MBMX20080923
http://www.cnn.com/2008/SHOWBIZ/Movies/09/24/lohan.relationship.ap/index.html?iref=24hours
[Reply]
September 24th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Can’t you see why the Lohan news is more significant? Excuse me while I wander off to TMZ to look for some photos….
It is my understanding that depending on which pres is elaected there will be a big divergence in which way to bet energy going into the future. Nobama will be big alt energy guy. Mcmorepain will be a big oil man. Dems already like it and control. At some of these prices for solar, I don’t see how you can’t take a long play in several of them. If the correlation between rising oil prices and alt energy stocks stays true, then when and if oil breaks resistance as craig shows in the vid, it may be a time to start DCAing into some of the leaders. I believe when global recession/slowdown is over we’ll have a huge push into oil again. I also believe the green movement is firmly entrenched. I also thnk the entry cost point into some of the alt energy technologies is coming down to a point where it is becoming more affordable.
PBW is a good powershare etf that you can buy and hold to get a broad play on the index. PBD is an international clean energy etf. I like to look at the holdings (usually 35 - 50) to get a good idea on who the pros think will be the industry leaders by sector.
Good luck.
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September 24th, 2008 at 9:18 am
Michael, where did you find that news about Lindsay Lohan? JK.
I’m assuming you are still long LDK as one of your core positions?
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September 24th, 2008 at 9:34 am
LOL - it’s was on CNN’s homepage. I provided the link for thiose interested.
I am still very long LDK. 2008 for me, has been an exercise in lowering cost basis at every opportunity, and taking short term profits from/exiting old positions. The U.S. is behind the rest of the world in implementation of alternative energy. The real benefit of these techologies, is that there are parts of the world that have no/little energy infrastructure. These are prime candidates for expansion, regardless of what happens to the price of natural gas, coal, and petroleum. In Germany, who leads the world in installed solar systems, I beileve that a full 1% of their electricity generation is from solar energy, and this was done in only 10 years. The pending growth rate is exponential. Germany also extended and defined its solar tax credits earlier this summer for three years.The Senate bill for extension of tax credits in the U.S. for both business and residential is until 2016.
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September 24th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Was just coming here to mention solars rallying today. I’m looking at LDK and of course YGE.
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September 24th, 2008 at 10:03 am
I try to buy companies that are as far upstream in the supply chain as possible. When given the ‘equal’ choice, I will take the upstream company. I bought my first position in LDK in early Sept 2007 when they annonced they are building a polysilicon plant. As average selling prices of panels come down in the market as more comeptition comes into the area, it’s the panel makers, and there are a lot of them, who will see their net margins squeezed. Solar will eventually go through a consolidation period as all industries do. Smaller good companies will be bought at a premium (a high one). Those who fail to execute, and I say this because customers in this sector are very precious, will go away. Supply for the raw good (polysilicon) is going to continue to remain tight, and ther price high, because capacities are struggling to keep up with demand. Once LDK produces the majority of their poly, their margins will expand. LDK is already sold out through the end of 2009. That’s how I’m reading the play. Having said all of this, LDK is the most manipulated stock I have ever seen, and anyone who purchases it, should expect this to continue. The big risk to the solar sector is potential cancellation of orders. People seem to think that an order gauarantees revenue. I hope no one learns this the hard way. This is my biggest fear. Orders can be cancelled, even ‘pay or take’ ones, and if a customer backs out of their order, and then fails, you can’t get blood from a stone. There is little recourse. This is a real risk, and it isn’t really talked about, either in forums or in the mainstream alternative energy press. These federal tax credit extensions are huge because they allow the time to plan the necessary infrastructure which takes place at local levels whenther the enduser is private or public, and this reduces risks to the manufacturer’s order book. (Sorry so long winded.)
(I own some shares of STP as a long term core hold as well.)
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September 24th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Appreciate it.
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September 24th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Anybody knows what happened to SDS ?
It is much lower than it should be (in comparison with SPY or SSO)…
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September 24th, 2008 at 9:42 am
It was mentioned yesterday aswell..
Yesterday the SSO was relatively lower then it should have been.. and Today I guess it’s the SDS.
Watch out for those ETF’s when taking a long position..
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September 24th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Frustrating… its clearly not working. I’d stay away.
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September 24th, 2008 at 9:39 am
BTW- GS increasing their additional share offering is a good thing for them. They need a higher reserve ratio as they transition to retail bank status, and with the Buffett vote of confidence at or around the current price, (I believe his warrants were for ~115) , this was as good a time as any to announce it.
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September 24th, 2008 at 9:50 am
I heard the Fed had to provide $2 billion to the mutual fund industry to accomodate liquidations.
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September 24th, 2008 at 9:56 am
We could form a doji on the SPY 15 min.
The volume is good.. I think it would be the best scenario right now..
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September 24th, 2008 at 9:56 am
Craig,
The technical action today has to be considered bullish. With the positive breadth and oversold market conditions, we could be in for a major short squeeze.
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September 24th, 2008 at 9:56 am
Possible Bull Flag in APA?
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September 24th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Is that a bullish pennant in GG?
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September 24th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Craig,
If COF implodes soon (which I expect to) this will offer SEC hacks a lesson on short-selling. In fact, this stock may be the first one to face that proverbial test, “sell to whom?”
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September 24th, 2008 at 10:05 am
1,192(ish) continuing to hold, but I’m losing confidence in my call. I hope we consolidate here and steep bull flag formation comes to fruition. Too bad the etf’s are not functioning properly. Not giving me much confidence.
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September 24th, 2008 at 10:11 am
im going to be watching for a reverse head and shoulders if we can form a neck line at ~1200 on the es
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September 24th, 2008 at 10:12 am
I heard SDS and several other ETFs were/are getting some kind of distribution/capital gains.
It was $4 per share for SDS overnight.
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September 24th, 2008 at 10:13 am
But of course this $4 is not confirmed - I read it on Yahoo SDS discussion group.
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September 24th, 2008 at 10:12 am
SSO usually goes ex-dividend today +/- 1-2 days. See ex-div history, that may be why some of these ETFs are off by .50 or so.
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September 24th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Et al,
Please don’t take this as picky, but the 61.8% retracement is a few points lower, around 1,183.5. I only mention it as it appears to be a vital support point at this juncture and could effect a trade at it.
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September 24th, 2008 at 10:44 am
I’m referring to the ES contract. Not the SPX.
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September 24th, 2008 at 10:53 am
My apologies, I should have noticed the futures symbol.
The 15 minute channel is still in effect on the SPX/SPY. It broke above it briefly yesterddayayy afternoon, and is now back in it.
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September 24th, 2008 at 10:44 am
regardless of the specific conditions congress comes up with, do you think the market has already priced-in, and is expecting some sort of gov. “bailout”?
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September 24th, 2008 at 10:45 am
regardless if it happens this week or a month from now
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September 24th, 2008 at 10:57 am
That is a good question and a tough call. I’m leaning towards a little/maybe but not sure. The rallys last week on the news is definately some pricing in, but I’m not positive the full effects are in. I think the bull flag is setting up for the announcement which will slingshot the markets upward. That’s just my glass half full optimism.
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September 24th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Agreed. I think people want an all clear signal. After that, the resumption of mutual fund net inflows is not far away. The SP500 chart is pretty in line, we have declining relative volume in a narrowing channel. Pending any sudden news, it should narrow to an inflection point and then have a large move. Assuming this 1 trillion dollar stopgap appears that it will be passed by Congress, then that move should be up.
As relatively calm as the last few days have felt ,The VIX is still over 36… I’d be more concerned if it was in the low 20s and we are still sitting where we are.
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
i do agree with these comments. after further thought, i dont think the important question is if the “bailout” happens, but more if it actually/precievably works. in bernakes testimony this morning, he made it very clear to ensure adaquite capital is available and make sure not to underpay for these securities causing the prices of these to be set too low potentially compounding the problem. i think the one of the big questions is, what sectors will be included i have heard everything from financials, to tech, automotive, airlines etc…
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September 24th, 2008 at 11:01 am
VMW wants to run, possible break out
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September 24th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Some resistance at 30.40?
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September 24th, 2008 at 11:50 am
yes resistance at 30.40 and 30.50.
Inverse head and shoulders GOOGLe minut chart?
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Nice call on VMW!
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Speaking of VMW, see excessive call volume in CTXS today. Buyout rumors (I posted a news link in comments below)
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September 24th, 2008 at 11:33 am
“MS reportedly to turn its attention to Mitsubishi.”
I think MS needs to worry about their own finances before they go and try to save to automobile industry. Realistically though, I think this is better than merging with Wachovia, however it still isn’t very appealing that they keep giving stakes of the company to Asian markets.
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September 24th, 2008 at 11:33 am
I just bought some of those SPY 119 October calls for 4$, on a day trade. S&P at 1285. Head and shoulders pattern looks promissing, especially with a 61.8% fibonaci retracement as support. Looking to sell at 50 SMA.
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September 24th, 2008 at 11:36 am
something is screwed with my quotes. How can SDS be 4.4 dollars down when S@P is only couple points up?
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September 24th, 2008 at 11:36 am
SPY is consolidating quietly out of its flag channel
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September 24th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Craig are you still long UNG? If so what is your exit strategy? We are testing the trend of this move higher.
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September 24th, 2008 at 11:41 am
My position in UNG is an investment. Therefore, I don’t have a short-term exit strategy. However, I’m encouraged by the action over the last couple weeks. Looks to be building a base to rally from.
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Craig
If you are looking at Nat Gas investments, I have owned some Canadian Oil Trusts (PWE and AAV) for awhile. They are also showing signs of strength lately as well. In addition, they pay dividens of over 13% each, and although they may have to curtail or cu back on them in later years, many feel US concerns will buy them before that date.
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
if you followed that ung trade, you would know it wasnt a planned investment. more of trying to call a bottom that never put itself in. the downward correction was way over exaggerated and i agree ung is EVENTUALLY due to bounce. when? that is anyones guess…
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September 24th, 2008 at 11:39 am
I seriously don’t get it.
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/sds
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=sds
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September 24th, 2008 at 11:53 am
The closing of the gap on xlf yesterday to 20.0 didn’t seem convincinging to me…Since friday am the xlf has been dripping lower…I believe we go under 20.0 at some point today.
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Craig, your SPY chart above looks like support at 118.2ish…what if this breaks?..do you see a lot more downside? Would initiating a short position if it breaks an idea?
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Sure, why not? Place a stop just above support.
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
The market looks very bearish. I think we’re going to have much problems to get back above if we brake the support at 1182. Watch for a fake move below. If we close a 10-min candle under 1179 I think we’re going to 1167.
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Craig - this SPY chart you just posted is almost identical to yesterday’s, but this horizontal support was about 120.50… But please continue, at some point you will be right…
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
This market indecision is killing me
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September 24th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Agreed
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
SPY
The 20MA has held back the SPY 5 times already today. Am looking for a long at $118.10 if it retraces on low vol for a day trade up to the 20MA.
[Reply]
September 24th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Craig,
Where did you get that 61.8% retracement from? What high and what low? Thanks.
[Reply]
September 24th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Oh Thursday’s low to Friday’s high?
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
Posted chart showing Fib retracements.
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Craig - I do not understand your trading strategy. Are you trying to trade bottom-picking? Against all longer-term (50, 100, 200 on 10 min) averages, resistance levels, decreasing price channel, etc… Are you using technicals, or some other method (gut filling?) ?
[Reply]
September 24th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Always technicals. Explanation posted above.
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Can someone please tell me why Fannie And Freddie have had 40% + gains every darn day since monday. I am feeling like I am missing the gravy train. Someone talk some sense into me quick.
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
If you have the money, have some fun day trading FNM, FRE, AIG, and WM.
Do it in 1,000 share blocks. Each penny increase will be $10. You can easily make $400 a trade if you time it right technically. Put a tight stop, maybe giving yourself a .20 cushion or so.
Small values, but hey, lunch money.
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Thinking more like full boating it talking 300k bet. Sounds crazy but the markets have been like gambling anyway.
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
You’d be more then insane to do that if you really had that money..
Ever heard of Capital risk management?
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
lol, send some of that equity this way… i will put it to better use than FNM/FRE
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
Yesterday the market started rallying after the hearing ended. Today’s hearing just ended so let’s see if plays out the same way today
Either way we brake, it’ll propably be a big move.
[Reply]
September 24th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Sorry, some typos
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September 24th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
I noticed huge call option volume in CTXS. I dug further and found this article in Computer World:
With VMworld, the world’s largest virtualization gathering, about to start next week, it was probably only natural that rumors of a major M&A in this hot space would bubble up to the surface.
Former Citrix engineer Douglas Brown blogged Friday his opinion that Microsoft Corp. might announce a purchase of Citrix Systems Inc. today or Monday to take the wind out of rival VMware Inc.’s sails.
Besides citing veteran tech pundit John Dvorak, who talked about it on his podcast, Brown sets out his logic, which goes something like this:
- Citrix dumped all of its distributors but one
- It’s stopped spending on advertising and marketing
- It’s stopped hiring and laid some people off
- Microsoft has lots of cash and will use it to win against VMware - Microsoft loves products like Citrix’s XenDesktop
- Microsoft needs Citrix to compete against VMware
- HP, IBM and Cisco might buy Citrix, which Microsoft can’t allow to happen
As a former insider, Brown is certainly privy to certain information (such as his first three reasons) that I’m not.
Citrix did not reply to a request for comment. Microsoft’s no-comment comment? “Microsoft and Citrix have been partners for 18 years and the partnership has proven to be valuable to us, customers and the channel. We won’t comment on rumors or speculation,” wrote Patrick O’Rourke, group product manager for core infrastructure marketing in Microsoft’s server & tools business.
So two non-denials. In other contexts, I might consider these tantamount to confirmations. But guided by analysts, my colleagues and my own research, I’m not convinced any Microsoft-Citrix acquisition is imminent. Why?
First, this rumor is OLD. It popped up last year after Citrix bought XenSource. But it has actually been percolating since the mid-1990s, according to Brian Madden, an independent virtualization analyst, and stem from the two vendors’ tight, love-hate relationship.
….
http://blogs.computerworld.com/that_microsoft_buying_citrix_rumor_pops_up_again
(I took a speculative call position in CTXS. OCT 25s)
[Reply]
September 24th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
The SPY is making another attempt.. let’s see what happens..
Cross your fingers..
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September 24th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Craig
Appears the SPY 15Min has morphed into either a rectangle or descending triangle between $119.230 and $118.00.
I believe they resume the hearings at 2:30, so maybe it breaks after Paulson speaks.
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September 24th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
go go google
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September 24th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Has anyone traded SRS enough to make a call on whether this ETF is tracking in a normal way? (Whatever normal is these days)
Profile says 80% of the holdings are financial. Opinions anyone?
thanks
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September 24th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
id be out of SRS soon, negative divergences in RSI
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September 24th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
$VIX is giving up.
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September 24th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Or was/is a bull flag on the VIX?
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September 24th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
New resistance on the SPY at 119.56
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September 24th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Are there sites with live feeds of the TED spread? Or at least the 3 month Treasury and Libor? It seems that has been a somewhat reliable tell for the direction of equities.
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Brian, great question. I would like an answer to that myself. I am only getting data from the new service that I pay for, but I don’t know where to find live data on this.
It would be very useful!
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP:IND
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September 24th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Pushing the bailout plan into next week and extending the short ban as was just discussed on CNBC, seems to me to be short term negative for the market for the rest of the week. Without liquidity and price discovery it looks like many are staying away, and if negative news hits, look out below as the bids dry up as shorts have already covered.
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September 24th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
head and shoulder on GOLD in 5 minute two day time frame near 87
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September 24th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
GLD
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September 24th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Double top on GS?
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September 24th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
My instincts are telling me I should short GLD here, anyone else feel the same way? I detect a change in sentiment on this ‘bailout’ deal. As cooler heads emerge they are realizing that the taxpayer may profit from this at some point. If that was not the case, why wouldn’t gold be moving higher along with a sharper decline in the dollar.
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September 24th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
been getting long at any potential break out today, but so far every attempt as failed… mon and tues were the single two largest declines in 6 years, this downward pressure is unbelievable and seems any longs are very quick to take their profits because these false rallys have not been able sustain… for now…
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
edit: 2 largest combined consecutive down days
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Craig, was that more or less a time breakout on SPY? And is a time breakout as strong as a price breakout?
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Good point. More a breakout of time than price, and time breakouts are not necessarily a sign of strength. Mostly shows indecision.
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Thank you Craig, just learnin this stuff and want to make sure Im readin the charts correct.
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Thats exactly what is going on in this market. The big players are waiting for an answer on this plan. They are letting the weak hands shake themselves out in the process — which is fine for them.
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
today is the doji candle, and a very small one at that. Yesterday looked like it would end in one until the last 30 minutes. Indecision.
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
I dont know about ya’all but I’m ready for some action in this market again. SOON. The house is as clean as I can get it. The yard is mowed. The cat is fed. I tell ya I’m this close to takin the laptop down the hill and goin fishin.
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Well don’t hold your breath, it seems like the market is just drifting in the wind this week.
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
I hope this 1181 Holds.
September 24th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
So, if a plan goes through, which I believe will, what will be the effect on the REITs like RSO?
Thanks
John
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Well I am sure they will go up along with the rest of the market. Keep in mind that the stock is cheap for a reason @ a 28% yeild. Might be interesting to buy a few hundred shares for the long term but who knows…
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Dan,
I have to disagree with you on everything.
1. My charts show Gold will sky spike to 970 very soon. We have tested support at 886 (50% retracement) a bunch of times and we have yet to go below it. 970 is the 61.8% retracement.
2. Bailout may produce a 1 day spike, but companies will have to sell their cds and cdo’s and then write off their losses. You will see a ton of firms go under (wachovia possibly, but a lot of regional banks.)
3. Why would these markets rally? What psychology signifies we have bottomed? I don’t see anything, we haven’t had capitulation, not even close. Elliot waves are playing out perfectly, and the 3rd of the 3rd is about to begin, and it will be steep.
But listen man, your name is Dan, my name is Dan, and we are both here to make money. I’m hedging, I have a lot of gold, but I have calls on GS (as well as puts) just in case we erupt. Whatever you do, make sure you hedge because a 1000 point down day may be coming….
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Gulp!
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
1000 down in 1 day? - Your scarin me man!
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
I did not short Gold today, in fact I have not made any moves today. I agree that trying to hedge your bets in this market is a good idea.
I think Gold has topped. Look at the panic last week! Much worse then back when gold was over $1000 — if that could not push it to a new high I don’t know what will, now that money market accounts have been insured.
Just my thoughts — but who knows…
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Market is breaking support… Craig you thinking that this is just a fakeout?
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Craig,
Here is where you get real-time quotes for TED spreads
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP:IND
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September 24th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
OK. I’m back on the sidelines except for 2 small positions in BUCY. About sold those since these days I do not like being in anything overnight. Materials/industrails down on global growth scares reinforced by the CNBC talking heads.
SRS has been a dependable day trade. Moves even on stagnent days. Tight stops or stay next to your machine.
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September 24th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
perfectly symmetric Doji candle.
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September 24th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
What does a “doji candle” imply? To me that SPX chart just looks like another day of weakness with no bottom tradable yet.
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September 24th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
http://www.stocktock.com/category/glossary/?snap=D
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September 24th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Does not look perfectly symmetric to me… are my eyes bad?
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September 24th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
(No, it ended closing down two points to 1185.) The high was 1197 low 1179.
The doji candle is one that opens and closes at the same point with equal length upward and downward moves. This is a sign of an indecisive market, or one trying to find an equilibrium trading point.
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