4:05pm
RIMM missed Q2 earnings expectations by a penny and provided disappointing guidance. Immediate reaction is a sharp drop lower under $88.
3:50pm
Looks like a lot of traders got the profit taking idea. ES just fell 10 points in about 10 minutes.
3:30pm
By the way, TSO having a great day, above $20.
3:24pm
I’m looking to take profits as we approach 1224.
~ Will hold a very small SSO position overnight but still a lot of risk in the market for swing trading positions.
Michael makes the case for having some long exposure:
I am going to continue to hold SSO overnight, since news could arrive at any time. I feel that ~1200 is a fair price point. (It’s also the July 15 low.). The VIX is still relatively high ~33 and will be at our back if the market rises. I want to see the resolution on the front page of the newspapers, hopefully this weekend. If perceived well, that should cause an upward bias.
3:08pm
SPY 1-minute: Rising trendline. Take profits on a break below.
3:00pm
Notice how the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) served as support on the ES 1-minute chart.
2:41pm
Interesting to see the S&P futures still trading at a high premium (5 points) to the S&P cash index. This usually indicates a rally is on the horizon. Time will tell…
2:41pm
Representative Cantor: Does not see widespread support for the bailout among Republicans.
2:40pm
If the market pulls back further, watch for the 50MA (1208) to serve as support.
2:36pm
Getting mixed reports from Washington on the progress of the rescue package. Market may be losing some steam as doubts creep in that this deal will be completed as expected. I think news that the $700B will be split into installments caught the market off guard.
2:21pm
Representative Frank: Bankruptcy aspects of bill still a point of contention. Market appears to be reacting negatively to the bill’s apparent roadblock. House Republicans have reportedly provided a mortgage insurance plan as alternative to current rescue package.
2:17pm
ES threatening to break the 20MA. Sell volume picking up. Needs confirmation. Kelly Turbin noticed a bearish MACD divergence on the XLF 10-minute. I’m giving the rally the benefit of the doubt until a 2nd candle confirms the breakdown.
2:05pm
Tight channel with 20MA support pacing the afternoon gains.
1:50pm
WSJ: Congress has reached a tentative agreement on the rescue package bill. Full $700B will be approved but with installments, $250B available immediately. There will be limits on the use of Golden parachutes and the use of warrants would be mandatory for all companies participating in the plan.
1:40pm
S&P at session highs. Looks like there’s room to run:
1:14pm
TED spread improving somewhat, back under 300bps, but still at very high historical levels. Equities look poised to continue their rally.
12:58pm
US dollar moving out to session highs. 10-year treasuries making fresh session lows.
12:53pm
Senator Dodd: Both parties have reached “fundamental agreement” on the principals of the bailout bill.
Representative Frank: Hopes that Congress will be act within days to pass the legislation.
Bush Advisor Hennessey: Executive pay provisions will likely be part of final agreement.
12:51am
Crude and natural gas continue to rally.
12:450pm
Short squeezes are known for not offering pullbacks. Perhaps the market continues to rally.
SPY 10-minute: Breaking Above Resistance
12:26pm
By the way, I tend to give breakout moves less credit when they occur between 12:00 and 1:45pm. Most significant action occurs in the morning and after 2:00pm. Of course, there are exceptions. I’m anticipating a pullback from this level before the real rally move that might occur near 2pm. This is just me game planning, but the market will do what the market will do, obviously.
12:22pm
Nat gas, crude oil rallying to session highs.
12:13pm
What’s the market telling us? Can’t discount the rally in equities, whether it makes sense or not. Price is the only thing that pays. Treasuries are weak. The VIX is weak. Is a massive rally in the works? I’ll be buying any strong volume breakout to new highs.
12:03pm
Rick Santelli points out the larger than usual premium of the S&P Futures (1213.25) to the S&P Cash Index (1209.25). Speculates this is an indication that the market will take off upon the passing of the rescue package.
FYI for Chatroom traders:
Use the END key to reach the end of the postings.
Use the HOME key to go to the top of the page.
Use the F5 key to refresh the browser.
~ Thanks to Schwiezer135 for the tip!
11:50am
In case you don’t read the comments, here are Brian’s thought on the dichotomy between the credit and equity markets. Great analysis here.
The divergence between the credit and equities has for the past 18 months has always been resolved in favor of the credit market. Not to bring personalities into this, but I view the credit markets as a Santelli, and the equity markets as a Kudlow. The former seems to accept the reality of the situation and its near/intermediate term negative implications, while the latter cheerleads and is optimistic in face of reality. While the equities may get it right over the very long term, I think the credit markets are more spot on when we are in the thick of things. I think it is a much larger market, more money at stake, and less retail involvement.
So why the divergence today? Both markets view the bailout as a necessary, but probably not sufficient remedy to resolving the credit tightness. To the extent that the bailout will pass, equities will rally and will ignore in the short term the difficulties that lay ahead, while I think the credit markets are more acutely aware of these difficulties. When the equities give in to these difficulties, I think they resume the downward path.
These difficulties include: (a) deteriorating housing market and economy, which futher depresses the value of the securities that Treasury is going to attempt to clean up, (b) the what next and when next issue. Ok so the plan passes, how long will it take the Treasury and Fed to get the administrative and management machinery in place to implement the plan? The market needs actions, not plans (remember how little time the market gave LEH and AIG? —- days) After the rally up on the bill passage, do we drip drip drip down each day that passes until the first auction? Likely. (c) the execution question. This hasn’t been done before and will it work? How many corporate turn around plans, strategic initiatives, etc, etc have we all seen announced and touted, but without the concomitant results? The difficulty in this plan is the pricing and the amount of private capital that flows in to buy this stuff. This stuff is alot more complicated than the simple parcels of land that the RTC acquired and disposed of in the 90’s. (d) Perceptions of risk. I think the credit markets have been shaken with the rapidity with which major Fortune 500 companies collapsed over the past few weeks. Those collapses were partly the result of the lack of confidence among counter parties. Until the opaqueness of balance sheets and real disclosure of these toxic assets occurs, I think the elevated level of fear in the credit markets will continue. The underlying economic slippage doesn’t aid confidence either.
I think the credit markets have a better read on the real difficulties out there, and as they have done in the last 18 months, I think equities will reluctantly come to share that view given a little time.
At least the volatility makes for interesting set ups and potential opportunities for short term traders. How fascinating to be watching all this occur in real time, while years from now there will be courses in MBA schools focusing on this period. Incredible.
11:42am
White House: Not clear whether or not deal can be reached by 4pm. Notes that progress has been made.
~ I’m not sure how much the market cares when exactly the deal gets done. I think equity markets are more concerned with how effective the plan works, which is yet to be seen.
11:35am
ES finding some resistance at double top level.
Republican House Minority Leader Boehner: No bipartisan bailout deal has been reached yet.
11:28am
ES making fresh session highs. VIX under 33. Dollar near session highs. Crude oil near session highs. Treasuries near session lows.
11:18am
SPY 15-minute:
10:57am
TED spreads remains near 320 basis points, indicating record levels of stress in the credit markets. Meanwhile, the S&P has rallied substantially this morning. Interesting dichotomy between credit and equity markets. Any thoughts on this? I have little experience analyzing the credit markets, but it seems to me that credit conditions should be improving on news the rescue package will soon be passed. Perhaps the credit markets are showing doubts the plan will work? Or does the plan literally need to be implemented before the credit pipes can be unclogged?
10:52am
Dollar looks like it wants to move higher, at least in the short-term. Be careful if you’re long gold.
(Thanks to Pete for the Citi update)
10:37am
US House Republican leader Bachus: House is not close to a deal on the rescue deal.
10:35am
Nat Gas data: +51 bcf v expectations of +60 to +65 bcf
Initial Reaction: UNG moving sharply higher.
10:32am
ES 10-minute: Pullback Targets
10:27am
Gold falling sharply under $875. Nat gas near session lows ahead of the inventory report (often a bullish setup).
10:18am
SPY 10-minute: Resistance?
EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data due at 10:35am: Expectation +60 to +65 bcf
10:07am
Markets shrugging off housing data. Reports that House and Senate Dems have reached an agreement helping push the market to session highs. Now negotiating with Republicans.
10:00am
August New Home Sales: 460K v 510Ke -11.5% m/m, lowest since Jan 1991
New Home Inventory: 10.9 v 10.3 months prior
Medium Sales Price: $222K v $235K prior
~ These are not good numbers.
9:57am
August New Home Sales due out at 10am: Expectation 510Ke v 515K prior
9:53am
Took some profit on SSO (L). Will re-enter on a pullback.
9:44am
Crude rallying off its lows to $105.65. Treasuries falling towards session lows. VIX below yesterday’s low but still above 34.
9:40am
ES continues to hold necktie support.
9:33am
House Majority Leader Hoyer: Passage of bailout package is possible in the near term, “maybe today”
9:26am
TED spread at a record high, above 3.35 ~ credit markets still frozen.
9:19am
ES pulling back into a necktie of its 200 and 50 moving averages. Should serve as support.
9:14am
Good morning. ES up 3 points, off earlier highs. Crude near 104. Gold near yesterday’s lows under $890.
September 25th, 2008 at 8:09 am
just wanted to give everyone a heads up here.
i noticed that there was aggressive buyers of puts on the XLI yesterday. this is the industrial select SPDR ETF.
why is this significant?
when the buyers of options are buying calls or puts aggressively on the ask, and it exceeds the open interest by 2-3x, than it is significant.
in this case there was about 22k contracts of the oct 27s, 28k contracts of the oct 28, and 13k contracts of the oct 30. about 90% of these were bought on the offer ,and exceeded the open interest by 3-5X. i also see that GE is a big component of this index and Ge had some bad news this morning.
these people are not only betting for a sell of in the XLI, but 10-15% below the lows.
also, these buyers of puts were right on when they were buying them aggressively on bearstears,fre,fnm,leh, and ms.
i would be VERY CAREFUL buying anything long, even if congress approves this bailout.
i am net short spy.
good luck
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Could it be that those put were written (sold) or does that even matter? If they were sold then someone had to buy them…so it balances out.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 9:28 am
90% of the puts were being bought on the offer(not written).
if they were written, it obviously would not be significant.
when buyers of either puts or calls are aggressive, they do not bid for them, they go right after the offer.
and when they are buying more than 10k contracts at a time and exceeding the open interest by more than 2x. it becomes very significant.
these buyers of XLI puts were buying the offer on multiple exercise prices and wiping out offers.
i have noticed , when this happnes these traders are right more than 80% of the time(since i have been following it)
so, this is no guarantee that we are going lower, but enough to make me bearish going into october.
also, it seems like every commentary i read, that nobody thinks we will break these lows again. can u imagine, the capitulation we will see if this bailout comes and we break new lows.
i am trying to stay as neutral as possible, but i really think this market is a house of cards. if new lows are tested, i think we are done.
good luck
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Hey, could you tell me how exactly you calculate those numbers without doing the tedious work of actually looking at the open interest, the volume, and guessing.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 9:51 am
i hate to promote other websites, but optionmonster .com disclosed this. i wish i would take the credit
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 9:52 am
by the way, XLI is down in a up market today.
somebody knows something(not me, but the trades who bought those puts).
look out below on the Industrial SPDRS
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 8:57 am
SSO/SDS - both went ex-dividend yesterday . SSO - 0.13c . SDS - over $4.00. That was part of the pricing discrep.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 9:03 am
Here in Columbus, Georgia, Bill Heard Chevrolet - “Mr. Big Volume” - has shut its doors and filed for bankruptsy. Why am I mentioning this, because 13 dealerships representing Cevrolets largest dealer in the nation is gone. Why, no financing available and GM’s idiotic and miscalculated move to SUV’s and trucks several years ago. I personally think GM is toast. If they let their largest dealership fail, uh, what’s next? The dominos are starting to tumble.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 9:08 am
COF Update:
Yesterday Capital One Finance priced their secondary at $49/share, about $3.5 below yesterday’s closing price. This stock could be trading flat to higher in the next few trading days, which reduces volatility.
I expected the offer price around yesterday’s close ($52.60) which is why towards the close I closed my put positions while the volatility premiums still existed. My intent was to reenter the position after the secondary, when volatility is lower. Shoot. I left a lot of money on the table.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 9:13 am
Pretty likely chance of a mid-day news event that a “deal” has been reached. Congress will pass the whole amount because it would be suicide for them if the market tanks before the election and they hadn’t given the plan their full support, especially the Dems. The Dems also want to stop McCain from riding in to save the day. Passage commitment, perhaps today or Friday, will be the trigger for a short term rally back up to the 11,700 level on the DOW, where it will then fail, yet again.
One last chance to get the hell out of Dodge. Weekly P&F charts are forcasting a 700 DOW and 820 S&P per http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGfgUWYG4jM .
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Correction - 7000 DOW.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 9:48 am
Excellent video, Thanks. A picture is worth a thousand words. 25 year charts breaking support. WoW
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 9:45 am
hey Craig,
do you expect more choppy trading today? or do you think today could be a “breakout” day?
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 9:48 am
I think a rally is possible. Taking things one candle at a time in this market. I’m long.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 9:51 am
thanks… me too
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 9:47 am
opening candle on the 15 min es a reversal?
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 10:00 am
are you looking to reenter as soon as ~1205?
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 10:10 am
i think this will be important support for today…
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 10:08 am
The market appears very strong in the face of all bad economic news that came out today. Breadth is very positive and it looks like the market really wants to rally.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 10:13 am
sold by tuesday block (1189) of sso @ 1208
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 10:15 am
It looks like the market is buying the rumor. We’ll see how it does on the news….
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 10:21 am
indymac up 120% since yesterday
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 10:23 am
SP500 at 38.2 fib resistance ~ 1215.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Gold making a bottoming candle on strong volume..
5 min chart GLD
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 10:50 am
Took my gains.. Might jump back in if it consolidates correctly
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Craig,
Are you completely out of your long SSO position ? What point are you planning to reenter a long position ? Thanks.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 10:49 am
I covered 2/3. Letting 1/3 run. Might re-enter on a pullback to the 20MA.
Need to be careful. Credit markets not improving on bailout news. Dichotomy between credit and equity markets.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 11:46 am
The divergence between the credit and equities has for the past 18 months has always been resolved in favor of the credit market. Not to bring personalities into this, but I view the credit markets as a Santelli, and the equity markets as a Kudlow. The former seems to accept the reality of the situation and its near/intermediate term negative implications, while the latter cheerleads and is optimistic in face of reality. While the equities may get it right over the very long term, I think the credit markets are more spot on when we are in the thick of things. I think it is a much larger market, more money at stake, and less retail involvement.
So why the divergence today? Both markets view the bailout as a necessary, but probably not sufficient remedy to resolving the credit tightness. To the extent that the bailout will pass, equities will rally and will ignore in the short term the difficulties that lay ahead, while I think the credit markets are more acutely aware of these difficulties. When the equities give in to these difficulties, I think they resume the downward path. These difficulties include: (a) deteriorating housing market and economy, which futher depresses the value of the securities that Treasury is going to attempt to clean up, (b) the what next and when next issue. Ok so the plan passes, how long will it take the Treasury and Fed to get the administrative and management machinery in place to implement the plan? The market needs actions, not plans (remember how little time the market gave LEH and AIG? —- days) After the rally up on the bill passage, do we drip drip drip down each day that passes until the first auction? Likely. (c) the execution question. This hasn’t been done before and will it work? How many corporate turn around plans, strategic initiatives, etc, etc have we all seen announced and touted, but without the concomitant results? The difficulty in this plan is the pricing and the amount of private capital that flows in to buy this stuff. This stuff is alot more complicated than the simple parcels of land that the RTC acquired and disposed of in the 90’s. (d) Perceptions of risk. I think the credit markets have been shaken with the rapidity with which major Fortune 500 companies collapsed over the past few weeks. Those collapses were partly the result of the lack of confidence among counter parties. Until the opaqueness of balance sheets and real disclosure of these toxic assets occurs, I think the elevated level of fear in the credit markets will continue. The underlying economic slippage doesn’t aid confidence either.
I think the credit markets have a better read on the real difficulties out there, and as they have done in the last 18 months, I think equities will reluctantly come to share that view given a little time.
At least the volatility makes for interesting set ups and potential opportunities for short term traders. How fascinating to be watching all this occur in real time, while years from now there will be courses in MBA schools focusing on this period. Incredible.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 11:50 am
Brian, thank you for this thoughtful response. Great analysis!
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 10:53 am
Citibank cutting all short USD positions.
On Gold, EURUSD or AUDUSD There has been every reason for them to head higher today and they have tried 3 times to do so only to fail It feels like the market is short USD so we are getting out of our shorts as we feel a rout could be coming .
AUDUSD at .8359 EURUSD at 1.4759
Pete
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Ok, I am done trading for a while now.
Got a lot of gold calls, wachovia puts, goldman puts, dxd call spread, etc. I’m ready for the big leg down.
But, I am hedging. Bought some XLF calls today at 22 and 23. Also have goldman calls, and wachovia calls. Now, the waiting game begins…..
If we launch up on the bailout, I’ll cash out my gain on all my calls and maybe even more into some calls on the SKF at that point.
If we drop, obviously my puts will make money.
Gold will continue going up regardless (with corrections of course.) We are in a lot of debt, the dollar is going to inevitably correct with or without this bailout.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 11:20 am
we are going get something out of the PPT, either today/tomorrow or they can let us just ponder and wait over the weekend as they have previously done, but also keep in mind 3rd quarter is coming to an end so we can expect this plan to pass sooner then later and let the “window dressing” start as we end the 3rd quarter .
I picked up some longs yesterday and will continue to add if given the chance and dump it all mid week next week!
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 11:26 am
FED is running out of bullets, so don’t fight the TED!
We had similiar end of quarter credit cruch in June/early July.
My take…too many bearish bets this time, so market is going to make money on weak hands before it decide what it want to do. As I have stated last night, I am swing trading on both sides…short mostly financials, long tech.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 11:32 am
TED is making me nervous.. out of SS) at 54. Decent run…
Holding my QLD and UYG
UYG is not really performing as designed I think.. about 1.5% off of 2x DJUSFN.
John
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 11:41 am
IDMC Up 200+% what is going on with these bankrupt companies. Someone with more investing knowledge enlighten me.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 11:42 am
‘ES finding some resistance at double top level.’
- Just about to comment on it. SP500 daily, 10 min candles- We bounced above the 20min twice now. The 50 min is about to bow tie the 200 at ~1200. Could consolidate at that level while this tense market waits. The VIX is slowly recededing, perhaps a more postive biss than yesterday when it sat most of the day at 36.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 11:44 am
I was under the impression INDY MAC (IDMC) stopped trading, bankrupt. WTF is going on, pure gambling?
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Some speculation over getting bought by GS.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
what would that do for the share price of INDY?
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Apparently it’s going up on that, I’m not so sure such deal would happen by buying existing shares so…
It is indeed a lottery ticket and I’d rather avoid those.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 11:57 am
FYI for Chatroom traders:
Use the END key to reach the end of the postings.
Use the HOME key to go to the top of the page.
Use the F5 key to refresh the browser.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Thanks Tom. That is very helpful! Feel kinda dumb for never thinking of that.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
also while we are on the topic for the youtube video watchers, you can type the code fmt=18 at the end of the url for higher quality videos… for example yesterdays video standard URL is:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tC0L5BpCKJo
for high quality the following URL should be used:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tC0L5BpCKJofmt=18
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
URL did not work for me.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tC0L5BpCKJo&fmt=18
forgot the and.
Now you can enjoy charts in HD.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
thanks Mike…
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Any idea why the IWM/UWM is lagging the SPY? Usually it’s more hyper.
I went long the UWM at the bowtie.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Ok here we go, testing 1215 on the SPX.
All other indices are also testing their 38.2% retracement (from the low of last wednesday, to the high of Friday.)
Same chart craig is looking at btw.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Well not all other indices.
This does look like a pivotal moment to me though, what do you guys think?
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Looking at Oil then looking at the SSO. I see a Bear Flag on the SSO. Any opinion on that?
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
A bear flag forms after a move lower, but you can criticize the upward angle of this consolidation, but this could also indicate a very strong market.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Not a bear flag..
A bearish continuation wedge is almost fully formed though..
Might take us back to test those previous lows today..
Btw. I’ve been having issues posting messages here.. it keeps rejecting it somehow.. so If you find 20 of thse messages suddenly pop up.. I’m not spamming.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Thanks Craig. I don’t always say it, but I always mean it.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Bearish Continuation Wedge forming on the SSO 5min. chart.
I’d be very carefull taking a long position now, Wait for the pullback or a move back lower.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
This (likely) is the beginning of the minor wave c up, correcting the August high of 1313.
1246 = 61.8% fib
1256 = 50dma
1265 = top of minor wave a (last Friday’s high)
1267 = trendline from May-Aug highs
1337 = 200dma
I vote for the last one.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Tom, makes me nervous to hear you calling for a move higher!
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Buy from the scared and sell to the greedy, nearterm.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
Great blog, Craig. Thanks for your hard work and dedication. Thanks also to other traders who post their ideas and analysis/opinions.
Hint: at least on Macs, you need to use the
fn+home or fn+end to move up and down the page.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
Any reason why FRE & FNM is seeing buying interest? Stocks up 50%?
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
I see a lot of traders on ths board talking about FNM, FRE, IndyMac, AIG. These stocks are speculative lottery tickets and there is no way of knowing how the equity holders will be affected by any new developments. Personally, I’ve taken them off my watch lists and pay no attention to them.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
I’ve learned my lesson the hard way. Used to trade pink sheet stocks, attracted to the massive moves I thought I could game using technical analysis. It’s possible, but it works until it doesn’t, if you know what I mean. Got wiped out in a matter of seconds. Play at your own peril.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
i agree there are much “better” trades out there than the ones based on PURE SPECULATION.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
oil is done
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Craig, I think it is great that you have a long bias and you trade based on that. I think everyone should trade with a bias, but it is affecting your commentary which should be unbiased. You should be giving the bullish and bearish interpretation of the charts during the day.
No offense intended, but recently it feels like you are pumping the market a bit.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Appreciate the feedback.
The number one goal of StockTock is to help traders make money. If I think the market is going down, my bias will be bearish. If I think the market is going higher, my bias will be bullish.
I usually have an opinion on the markets. Sometimes I’m wrong and sometimes I’m right, but I will always give my opinion, unlike some other sites.
This site might not be for you if your looking for unbiased analysis that does not stick their neck out with an opinion.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Oh, I definitely prefer to hear your opinion and value it greatly. I’m sitting out partially because you and many others here are bullish. I just think that TA is by its nature unbiased, and it has felt a bit like we are only hearing the TA that supports the long case.
Again, great job and thanks so much for what you do here. Just trying to help give some constructive feedback.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
I’m just having trouble understanding how that feedback is constructive because there is nothing I can do with it. I always try to read the charts without bias and then draw conclusions. If my conclusions are that the market is going higher, not lower, not sure how I can communicate both sides…
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Don’t worry about me becoming a cheerleader. I will turn bearish on the market the second the charts tell me to.
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
I believe you as I’ve seen you switch from bullish->bearish->bullish since I started following this site. I think maybe I have just interpreted some of your more bullish comments the wrong way.
Thanks for replying to me. (Feel free to delete this comment chain if you would like.)
[Reply]
September 25th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
No worries. Maybe others share your views. I don’t know. I’m always open to feedback.
September 25th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
TA is meant to form a bias; placing the odds on one side or the other. It can form a different bias for different time periods.
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September 25th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
That is why opening the site to other posters like StockJock and Mohan is a great idea because everyone has a different opinion.
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September 25th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
that UNG chart is staring to look intresting on an intraday level… all the volume is on the buy side and appears to be forming a bull flag on the 10 min timeframe.
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September 25th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Craig,
There is Bearish MACD Divergence on the XLF & UYG 10 minute intraday, what do you think of that?
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September 25th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Current picture in USO:
http://img241.imageshack.us/my.php?image=usogo9.jpg
Working on breaking that downtrend apparently isn’t going to be easy. How many more times can we test?
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September 25th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
picked up another SSO ~1207
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September 25th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
38.20% Fib retacement at 53.34 on SSO. Will it come?
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September 25th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Hi,
I’m keeping it really simple here. Confidence will rally this market. I’m not going to wait for a point or two. We’re moving up from yesterday and the VIX is declining. I have three SSO positions left from 1207-1213.
I’m looking at the SP500 daily, 10 minute candles. The 200 minute average is ~1200. We sold down sharp, I took the position. I’m still using the Fib’s from the big move last week as a guideline. 1215 for 38.2 . 1200 for 50.0 and ~1184 for the 61.8.
I’m using 1200 as my guidline, and the 200 min average is now at 1200, and we have an improving bias on the SP500. That’s how I’m looking at it. We *should* spend some time on the positive side of the 1200 mid point.
There’s a meeting at 3:55 today at the white house. It’s mostly symbolic, but if they can improve confidence, an upmove should begin.
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September 25th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
I see the chart.
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September 25th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Hi guys,
Are you still bearish on the COF? Craig, you mentioned you are long puts on COF? What maturity if I may ask. Thanks for great work.
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September 25th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
I have no positions in COF. I think that was Mohan.
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September 25th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Paulson will hold firm. Just watch. Dems to be blamed if deal falls apart. Paulson is a rock.
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September 25th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Craig are you holding SSO or cashing out before the closing bell? Any idea how RIMM earnings will effect the markets?
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September 25th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
I’ll probably hold a small SSO position overnight. Less than 1/2 position.
Depends on how we finish today, of course. A strong rally would be tempting to take profits into near the close.
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September 25th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
RIMM will have a big impact the QQQQ and NASDAQ, depending on how good/bad the earnings are. Tough to play. I have no insight on what to expect.
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September 25th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
I would like to think this vertical sell off more than an hour from close in RIMM is executed to scare the longs out into the close.
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September 25th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
SSO is 15 min. seems to have formed a couple of bottom candles there..
Push higher coming?
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September 25th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Paulson just tapped the PPT button.
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September 25th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Come on Hank. Tap-tap-tap. Atta boy.
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September 25th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
I think Earnings will be overall much better in tech compared to last quarter,
Btw…. we have a head and shoulders on most indexes… keep that in mind… Volume upwards hasn’t been impressive in the last 20 minutes.
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September 25th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
People may take profits into the close, especially if they are sitting on today’s unrealized gains. I am going to continue to hold SSO overnight, since news could arrrive at any time. I feel that ~1200 is a fair price point. (It’s also the July 15 low.). The VIX is still relatively high ~33 and will be at our back if the market rises. I want to see the resolution on the front page of the newspapers, hopefully this weekend. If perceived well, that should cause an upward bias.
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September 25th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
I think that the VIX argument would have been valid about a month ago. But I am not convinced now. With LIBOR where it is the credit markets are frozen. Today did not change that. The charts/indexes look weak to me. Not a lot of conviction.
And… I am probably way wrong..
John
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September 25th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
‘By the way, TSOLoading… having a great day, above $20.’
- LOL. I saw that, i wasn’t going to mention it! I didn’t know if you had reloaded any calls or common shares. I’m still long at 16 and 19 for the long term refiner recovery
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September 25th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Massive H&S formed on intraday WB chart.
Neckline is at $15, which is a trendline I had drawn in from either yesterday or the day before.
It’s amazing how things work. It just broke below the trendline and is tanking.
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September 25th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
I went long SSO and UYG around 3:00 off the support. Doing well and will hold overnight.
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September 25th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Can I ask why? Not challenging you, more interested in learning than anything else.
UYG has formed a fairly significant head and shoulders pattern with a double top on the intraday. Why would you go long?
John
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September 25th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
RIMM bombed. Down nearly 10 in after hours.
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September 25th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Picked up some shares AH at 80.84. Would like to hold as a long term holding…but if it pops back up to 88 or so I may have to sell for a quick buck.
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September 25th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Is anyone else starting to get bearish? I did not like today’s action. Just a gut feel, thats all…
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September 25th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Yes.
All the indexes look weak to the upside.
The bailout package is out now. Sell the news?
And look at the TED Spread - Yikes!!!
I think we are on our way down.
John
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September 25th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
I also expected a much more bullish day then this..
I held onto SSO overnight in anticipation of a confirmation move to the highs for tomorrow, but with RIMM crashing in AH, I kind of regret not taking profits..
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September 25th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
I just can’t forecast this market right now. Last week I correctly called the bottom, that was clear as day IMO. Now I have a big long position on that I should have closed last Friday that is clouding my judgement.
Bearish factors:
Market started selling off as soon as last Fri night. The reason is not because of a feared Delay in the “bail out plan” because the market looks ahead. I think it became apparent to the market that any modifications a bunch of congressional know nothings are able to add to this bill are going to damage its potential to fix the situation. This is becoming more and more apparent. Many who don’t understand this market believe that just the mere passage of the bill is going to cause a huge rally like the one we witnessed last week. But as has been pointed out here and elsewhere the credit market is not as hopefull. What about Junk Bonds? Junk accounts receivable and junk everything else?
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