If you have not joined Social yet, definitely check it out. This supplements the intraday commentary. Traders may participate in live chat, post their own charts, blog posts, and more.
3:59pm
Reminder: The SEC recently extended the financial stock short sale ban to 3 days after the bailout bill passes. Therefore, the short ban is expected to end next Thursday morning, October 9.
3:54pm
S&P 500 trading under 1100 for the first time since October 2004. Index is down about 30% from its 52-wk high of 1576 in October 2007.
3:52pm
Not a good sign… small caps taking out long-term support:
3:49pm
VIX into positive territory above 45.25
3:40pm
Sellers in control, retesting session lows. A failed reversal is very bearish. Sell volume picking up.
3:30pm
Tough trade against the trend… Reversal candle makes me favor the upside over the next 30 minutes. Target lowered to descending 20MA (now 1134.75 but moving lower).
3:00pm
Target for ES long trade is around 1138, necktie of 20/50 MAs and VWAP.
2:38pm
Looks like a reversal candle on increased volume. VIX still negative on the day. May be a long opportunity for day traders.
2:32pm
ES just broke Monday’s low of 1112. Possible double bottom but I have my doubts.
~ VIX still negative on the day…
2:27pm
ES moving lower. S&P into negative territory. This could get ugly.
2:06pm
Treasury official: first auction under the rescue plan will likely not begin for at least 4 weeks.
~ To hire between 5 and 10 asset management firms to help carry out the plan.
2:05pm
My thoughts: This market is in trouble. Sellers will not wait to see if the credit markets unfreeze. Buyers wont step up until there is evidence things are getting better. Wave 3(3) may be volatile and difficult to trade, but will ultimately lead us lower. Minimum target: 1077. I lean towards a move under 1000, perhaps as low as 925.
~ That being said, I am still on the sidelines because the market has not offered me an safe entry point for a short position. I try very hard not to chase moves, even if I miss out. But I think the smart money is short and staying short.
1:58pm
Dollar weak. Commodities trying to bounce. ES pausing under 200MA.
1:50pm
Bernanke: Fed will use all powers at its disposal to mitigate disruptions in the credit markets.
1:45pm
ES is puking now. TED spread remains incredibly high, 382 bps.
1:40pm
ES fighting to hold 200MA (1138). Crude and nat gas selling off hard.
~ Bears remain in control of this market.
1:33pm
VIX spiking towards 44. Selling accelerating in equities on strong volume.
1:26pm
ES selling off to 200MA (1138) support.
1:22pm
House has passed the rescue package bill.
1:07pm
House vote has begun on rescue package.
S&P places WFC ratings on watch negative, pending merger with Wachovia.
1:04pm
My trading plan is to build a short position on strength. I’ll be accumulating a market short between 1174 and 1187, with a stop at 1190.
12:52pm
It seems like a lot of people are anticipating a rally on the passage of this bill. While I think a relief rally is possible, it may be a setup. The bears are still in control of this market. Look at yesterday’s volume selling. Have not seen strong volume buying today. Hedge funds are liquidating. The smart money has been dumping. They will likely use strength to sell into. Path of least resistance is lower.
12:21pm
ES 1-minute testing 200MA and VWAP. Important it holds this level or we may roll over. Sell volume light. Should hold support.
12:11pm
Looks like a bull flag on the ES, right into 20MA support.
~ US dollar continues to weaken.
12:00pm
ES pulls back into 20MA on light volume.
11:46am
Tally of House of Representatives expected to switch their vote to ‘yes’ on the rescue package has reportedly risen to 20.
11:06am
ES 60-minute. Rally could have more upside to 1174-1187 level.

10:54am
ES has rallied to 1150. Dollar moving into negative territory against the euro. Dollar index off its best levels. Gold rallying on the dollar’s recent weakness.
10:38am
WSJ: Citigroup (C) may sweeten its offer for Wachovia (WB) instead of lawsuit against Wells Fargo (WFC). Gov’t may intervene against WFC deal.
10:33am
US House clears procedural vote (235-190), bill can move ahead on rescue bill vote later today.
10:32am
SPX 60-minute: Resistance Levels

10:18am
Volume picking up on the buy side. Impressive bullish engulfing candle just put in on ES 10-minute.
10:16am
WB halted, news pending.
10:00am
Sept. ISM Manufacturing: 50.2 v 50.0e
9:53am
AAPL says reports about Steve Jobs being hospitalized are “not true”.
9:51am
ES yet to break 200MA in convincing fashion.

9:48am
Schweizer: AAPL under $100
~ Reports surfacing that Steve Jobs may be having health issues ~ unconfirmed
9:45am
ES attempting to break above 200MA. If this rally gets going, there may be upside to resistance at 1174. But let’s confirm a break above the 200MA first.

9:40am
Russia exchange halted again. Will not open for the duration of Friday’s trade.
9:38am
TED spread at 385 bps, all-time high. Volume light on this buy program.
9:27am
ES 10-minute moving into 200MA (1138). Should serve as resistance.

9:15am
News of the Morning:
- WFC merging with WB in all-stock transaction valued at $7/shr. Citigroup believes it has exclusivity to WB’s banking operations. Should be interesting to see how this plays out.
- C down 13.5%, WB up 79%
- September Non-Farm Payrolls: -159K v -105Ke, Unemployment Rate 6.1% v 6.1%e
- House debate on rescue package to begin at 9am
9:13am
- The ES up 9 points pre-market.
- The USD is roaring higher.
- Gold has given up early morning gains, back to $835.
- Crude at session lows to $92.75.
Good morning.
Traders will be focused on the House vote on the rescue bill. The vote should occur sometime near noon time. I’m sure the networks will be covering every detail all day. I think the market has already priced in the bill’s passage for the most part, but a small relief rally is possible upon a Yes vote. I will be watching conditions in the credit markets very closely for signs of improvement. In my opinion, I would rather trade with the trend in this market, from the short side.
StockTock Social is not meant to replace the Intraday Commentary. I will still be posting here throughout the day and I will not be involved in the chat room. Questions and comments should still be left on this page. The live chat room is meant as a supplement to this page. You can create your own blog posts and share your own charts on Social and use this page to share those links.
This is all a bit experiemental to see what works and how best to communicate. Feedback welcomed!


October 3rd, 2008 at 8:44 am
Good morning. Hope poker went well last night. I’m liking UYG today and possibly picking up some XLF as well for ST plays with tight stops. I believe perception will be that bailout plan will help financials the most up front. It is posible I may begin DCAing into some uber long positions in the strongest of the financials like JPM and BAC. Still long SSO. slightly down, but we’ll see how today goes. As for gold, down pretty bad in uyg, but buying down. Not sure why it is behaving the way it is not are the talking heads. Not much rationality in this market right now.
Good luck today.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 9:13 am
Bought UYG/AAPL at the end of the day yesterday for a bounce today. We will see where they go.
John
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October 3rd, 2008 at 9:37 am
nice! I added sso, uyg. thought about adding individual better banks but stayed with the index. Added to both this AM.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 9:03 am
umm… no comments yet on WB?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0fBnkbh8rFw&refer=home
maybe there will be a bidding war over WB’s remains
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October 3rd, 2008 at 9:06 am
WTF am I the only one here or am I in the wrong place? Futures moving up despite the bad jobs numbers. Beginning to look like the possible passing is not priced in or was wiped out yesterday.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 9:09 am
I’m here too… it is awful quiet. I would have expected 3+ updates by Craig or some others on WB by now at least.
We should see a pop initially as the market opens because of Wachovia. Good call on the financial plays; now lets see some upside movement on Gold
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October 3rd, 2008 at 9:09 am
Where the heck is everyone? I thought the buzz would be huge this morning here. Craig, where are you? Hung over from poker night?
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October 3rd, 2008 at 9:12 am
Shanky,
Do you think market will go up today?
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October 3rd, 2008 at 9:27 am
Yes, but not sure how big. I’ll have smaller trades long early with bigger positions set to play as soon as the vote is hopefully passed. I’m liking the financials today and SSO.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 9:14 am
Anyone trade SLM?
John
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October 3rd, 2008 at 9:55 am
Yes, I have 7.5 puts on it.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 9:23 am
We are trading where we were on Monday afternoon after the inital bill was rejected. The market was walked down yesterday in anticapation of the vote. Passing the bill will remove one more uncertainty, and remove some of the fear. The credit market spreads after a few knee jerk reactions, will still take time to resolve itself The stock assuming the bill is viewed as constructive should move higher than the monday low.
The news item of the week that sticks in my mind is GE needing to dilute shares in a stock offering. Many companes will experience some level of declining earnigns in the months ahead, but a company the size and diversity of GE needing to post an offering, as well as not raising its dividend for the first time since the 70’s, implies a deeper problem with their future cash flow.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 9:30 am
Spoke with someone who used to work at GE. Apparently they did not have to do the offering, but is was viewed as a good deal for the time we are in to further strengthen the company and it is a sign that they are positioning for the future.
I agree with your post as usual. We seem to be on the same page.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 9:29 am
My god, I sold out my C puts yesterday…
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October 3rd, 2008 at 9:33 am
Sorry man. Who could have predicted a WFC steal?
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October 3rd, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Yes…I sold out C because market would bounce today. Actually, most financial stocks are up huge today. Try to be safe and don’t lose money…
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October 3rd, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Jack, you made the smart trade. Just because you left money on the table due to a news event doesn’t mean you made the wrong decision.
Move on.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 11:16 am
Sold my Oct08 20, Jan09 25 puts. Still holding a few Jan09 25 puts. WFC Nov/Jan09 put premiums are outrageous. Trying to add more but premiums increasing instead of decreasing. Funny…should sell my WFC Nov/Dec puts and buy them back after demand is is down?
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October 3rd, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Wait and see. JPM and BAC will go down sometime next week.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:31 pm
JPM and BAC are already red.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:41 pm
I am having a nice day. I am lucky that I am not on the pc all day, or else I would have done some stupid things with all these violent moves.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Any suggestion on playing current month options and leap month options? As you mention you hold NOv/Dec puts. Are they more profitable? Thanks,
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:58 pm
I trade Nov/Dec/Jan09 puts because they are less risky than Oct. in my opinion in this volitile market. Since bail-out passed, ban on shorts sell should be lifted soon. Financials have nowhere to hide now.
I still think shorting WFC is a safe bet. Most of my puts are in-the-money or at-the-money puts.
Good luck, Jack!
October 3rd, 2008 at 9:39 am
Got a big gap this am in the SPX that will have to be filled at some time in the future.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 9:44 am
I expect the Treasury (Paulson) to come out post-vote today with several IMMEDIATE actions they are taking today to unfreeze certain areas. This should really cause a boost to confidence and spark, at least, a short-covering rally of some size.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 10:04 am
New trades today by Citi.
They went short EUR/JPY this morning at at 145. 45 with a stop loss at 147.50 and a belief that we could be headed towards 130.
They were stopped out of their short EUR/USD position at 1.3860 However it was a profitable trade since they were short from 1.4005
Pete
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October 3rd, 2008 at 10:04 am
Looks like a false topping candle to me. May form bear flag at 200ma on the es at this point going into vote. Any thoughts?
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October 3rd, 2008 at 10:31 am
http://www.dailypfennig.com/
One of the things we’ve learned this week is that the European banks are not getting to go Ollie, Ollie Oxen Free, on the holding of toxic waste debt… And since they are U.S. issued mortgage bonds, the trader that called tells me that they need to have capital reserved in U.S. dollars. Well, usually, these banks use LIBOR for this funding… But with the credit crunch going on all over, LIBOR rates have gone through the roof. So… Looking for alternative means of raising capital, the European banks have turned to the euro / dollar swap market… Selling their euro reserves and buying dollars.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 am
This is the just the beginning of the long reversal of the dollar/euro. Look back to 2002 to see how far it went the other way.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 11:15 am
This strength in the dollar is hurting gold when theoretically gold should be running. My point is that this is creating a false fall in gold that could create a bigger bull run when they have bought enough $$.
Nice post Eugene!
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October 3rd, 2008 at 10:53 am
Whoa I just came home and my yesterday pick (JRCC) gave me an incredible 15% return..
Closed a nice wedge formation yesterday on increasing volume.. So I took a chance pick overnight.. Just took my gains too at 21.49, thought it was losing momentum, but it went much higher there (unfortunately)..
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October 3rd, 2008 at 11:18 am
Anyone think The SSO can pullback to around 46.85? which is the 38.2% retracement off yesterdays lows..
The bailout is most likely gonna be approved, so any pullback is a buy for me..
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Nice call. Got in at your 46.85 and sold before the start of the vote at 47.05. Hope you did too.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Craig,
Do you favor stop loss or stop limits orders.
Thanks
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October 3rd, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Stop Loss orders. But I use mental stops as opposed to actual stop loss orders. Stop loss orders are public info. Traders see your stops and pick you off all the time.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Just of curiosity, what is the difference? I thought a stop is a stop….
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October 3rd, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Loss triggers a Market Order.
Limit triggers a Limit Order.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 1:08 pm
My personal experience is to avoid stop loss limit orders. Especially now in such volatile markets. I got stuck several times with my postions because price drop was so sudden, and limit order did not execute. Then I had to sell with much more bigger loss.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 1:11 pm
What is happening to this stupid Gold? I was thikning at 12:00 there was an end of bullish flag, and just minute later it started to fall. Of course I was long at 12:00, my stop executed several minutes later… But I do not understand what is going on…
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October 3rd, 2008 at 1:32 pm
hey ST can you tell us what this 2nd vote right now is about???
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October 3rd, 2008 at 1:42 pm
What 2nd vote?
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October 3rd, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Even though the resuce package has been passed, why is the mkt selling off, can someone please explain?
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October 3rd, 2008 at 1:42 pm
I posted that this could happen above. Its just a case of buy the rumor, sell the news. Bears are in control.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 1:38 pm
1st time they voted “NO” and markets dropped. 2nd time they voted “YES” and markets drop. What a circus… Wil they vote 3rd time???
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October 3rd, 2008 at 1:45 pm
This is what i found:
The U.S. House of Representatives has voted in favor of the proposed ammendments to the $700 billion asset purchase plan. The House will next vote on the actual ammended bill.
It seems there is going to be another vote now.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 1:51 pm
The bill passing is a constructive first step. I’m not concerned with immediate spikes and/or sell offs. There was and still is a lot of fear but this is now one less uncertainty, and that is our government stepped in and did something while the world is watching. The results of this bill will be debated for years… The credit market over the next few weeks will be the key, and should begin to operate as intended. In the short/intermediate term the stock market may have a short term rally, and it may rally ahead of credit spreads coming significantly down. Gold might be a good barometer to how much confidence markets have in the implementation of this bill. A couple of weeks ago, gold popped $100 in less than 24 hours. I believe it may be a good indicator of sentiment during this specific period. In the SP500, we haven’t touched the declining 50 day in a while nor the declining 200 dma since May 19.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 1:51 pm
More news:
01. Bernanke: House action a critical step to stabilize markets
1:50 PM ET, Oct 03, 2008
02. Bernanke: Fed will use all powers to mitigate credit crunch
1:50 PM ET, Oct 03, 2008
03. Bernanke: Fed will work to put mortgage rescue plan in place
1:50 PM ET, Oct 03, 2008
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Wow, i thought there aould be more buyers after passage. Got out of most plays today at or near break even. Time to start setting up shorts.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Craig - best real time call I have ever seen you make at 12:52. Very very impressive. Your emotions and instincts are spot on. Now let’s go find a bottom.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:05 pm
03. Paulson: Has ability to protect, recapitalize bank system
1:57 PM ET, Oct 03, 2008
04. Paulson: Won’t have a one-size-fits-all solution
1:57 PM ET, Oct 03, 2008
05. Paulson: Rescue plan has a ‘broad set of tools’ to use
1:57 PM ET, Oct 03, 2008
06. Paulson: ‘Once it is signed, we’ll get going’
1:57 PM ET, Oct 03, 2008
07. Paulson: Will have more to say on timing once bill is signed
1:57 PM ET, Oct 03, 2008
08. Paulson: First step is to line up advisers on bank rescue
1:57 PM ET, Oct 03, 2008
09. Paulson declines to be specific on timing on action on banks
1:57 PM ET, Oct 03, 2008
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:11 pm
This “pattern” on ES between 1:42 PM and 2:10 PM is more consolidation before moving up, or bearish flag before going lower?
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:27 pm
I was holding some puts and watching the tape anxiously
Now, may wait for the gap to fill
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Bought some XLF calls
May be a bit early
Will average down
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:33 pm
SPY trying to bounce from yesterdays lows
But I doubt it will last
Will go < 1200 I think.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:35 pm
SPY bouncing from 52 week low
Will book some profits
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Craig,
Looks like things could get really ugly from here.
Yesterday’s gold move could be the shakeout before the breakout. Or, it is simply my wishful thinking.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:44 pm
going long with some calls.
Helicopter Ben will come to the rescue soon
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:49 pm
He made several trips already. It is taking more time to print than usual.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:56 pm
You can’t put out a fire with just a helicopter.
This might keep the market from free-falling, but down it still will go.
Those printing presses sure will help Gold though…
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October 3rd, 2008 at 2:57 pm
Thanks to him, I am doing fine with my calls
Market should close green today or else look out below.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:18 pm
How about psychology. People will look that even bailout couldn’t rise the market and they will short it. Next week would be perfect opportunity to take their money.
I agree that sell of isn’t over yet:
SSO: 39.75-39
qld: 37. I favor flush as it will open up road for a countertrend rally.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Interesting take…
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:35 pm
make sense….I’m thinking of the inverse hammer on the S&P daily chart that we seem to be forming. That could be a sign for a bounce on Monday. Question is how big…
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October 3rd, 2008 at 4:13 pm
I agree with you that we are gettting close to a short term bottom. I sold my WFC today at 38.37 for a nice profit and I will admit the timing was mostly luck. But I have yet to see any buying oppurtunities in other stocks. I don’t see that confidence inspiring panic that convinces me to buy, instead I see orderly liquidation and a lack of conviction on the part of the big players.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Craig, big fan here but have you noticed that lately all your bear calls have been good but your bull calls have disappointed
I mean your 12:52 was bang on but the 3pm one, not so! My memory may be playing tricks but I get the feeling that your bear calls have been more correct than your bull calls recently.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:26 pm
could it be because it´s a bear market and the chances of being right on the downtrend are greater?
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:27 pm
That’s what I was thinking…
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Easier to trade with the trend than against it.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Of course! Just thought I would state the obvious :p
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Sometimes the obvious is not so obvious to traders. Our counter-trend instincts can get in the way of making money.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Right. I’ve made money mostly with the trend this year. Pretty much the only times I have lost money has been when I’ve tried to go long or closed my shorts too soon. So I guess I for one should only listen to your bear calls. Fits with my trading strategy better. But don’t mind me, make all the calls you want.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:38 pm
I’m showing an intraday H&S on the 3 minute SPY. Neckline near 110.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Sorry, 111.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Real Ugly Real Fast….
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:49 pm
I am out again on stop-loss. At least loss is limited this way…
But… Recently I am stopped almost every trade I make. Anybody here got recently 100% trades stopped, or it is just me?
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October 3rd, 2008 at 4:07 pm
When you use an actual stop you are showing your hand to the market maker. Also most people think along the same lines and put their stops at around the same levels. So the market maker manipulates the price down just to fill them. I remember my frustrations with this early on when I started trading — thats why most people use a mental stop. I also don’t use tight stops - if you are that unsure about a trade why put it on?
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October 3rd, 2008 at 4:22 pm
I am using mental stops too. They are just always breaking recently.
For example today at the of the day; there was double-bottom pattern (on SSO, at 2:32 PM and 3:24 PM) with good volume spikes, even Craig mentioned possible strong support here (he was refering to ES, but it was the same)… But then it just broke 20 minutes before market close…
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October 3rd, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Do you think my example above is an example of “bad interpretation” of charts?
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October 3rd, 2008 at 4:30 pm
No, it just didn’t work. I made the same trade and got stopped out. Market doesn’t always cooperate.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 4:43 pm
With me market does not cooperate always, not sometimes.
Same for Gold recently (I saw bullish flag several days ago), you saw it too, you decided to make DCA into DGP, I decided to go full with tight stop. Again got stopped next day (my stop was really broken during the night, I even could not execute it on my terms).
I guess I should try “reverse logic”, i.e. if I want to do something, because my TA interpretation tells me so, I should do the opposite.
Still have some money left for testing it, before I reach my “absolute day trading loss limit” - just enough for 2-3 trades with stop-loss…
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October 3rd, 2008 at 8:40 pm
The stock market = reverse psychology
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Guys,
For the last 2 months I have suspected some tape paining on COF. It is even more very evident today. See intraday chart and find a big spike in the last 5 min. Somebody is managing its charts so it won’t look broken.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Just a heads up that I was holding COF for a while, and yesterday they finally closed my shorts. It wasn’t a margin call as I had plenty of cash in the account, they just said they could no longer locate the shares. It is possible this keeps happening and causing spikes as the short ban lengthens and longs decide to close out their shares.
That was the only interpretation I could come up with.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 4:04 pm
I was looking at exactly the same thing. It definitely looks fishy. But I’m gonna hold on to my puts. Perhaps close out the Oct ones and initiate Nov ones instead but I’m going to stay short in COF. I know that we’ll see the 30’s before the month is out.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 4:06 pm
On Yahoo boards they are saying this a lot. I don’t know if it is the same situation with other no-short financials or unique to COF. To me it feels like, somebody is actively ‘managing’ the stock price.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 4:02 pm
CHK nearing wave 4 target of 27-28 region. Wow! exhilirating journey
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October 3rd, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Craig
I think that you are mistaken. SEC ban on financial stock short sale is expected to end on October 17. More precisely I believed that was extended to midnight Oct. 17. ..
For furher Information see http://insurancenewsnet.com/article.asp?n=1&neID=20081002200.1_bf23000e6e1e7aa7
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October 3rd, 2008 at 4:30 pm
We have conflicting sources.
http://www.tradethenews.com/forex-news/USA-Macro-News-Economic-Numbers/story/469476
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October 3rd, 2008 at 5:31 pm
The ban was set to expire either Oct. 17th or 3 days after the bailout passed, whichever came first. Since they passed it today, the ban expires at 11:59PM on Wed.
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October 3rd, 2008 at 5:10 pm
Craig. Could you and affiliated members list in traders toolkit books on TA that you found useful. Thank you. Or here.
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