4:27pm
SPY 30m: Could be a bearish ‘kiss of death’ pattern where the market rallies up to prior support (now resistance) and then sells off hard. I think we may get that final wave of selling starting tomorrow and possibly completing early next week. Markets typically do not bottom on Fridays. Starting tomorrow, I am shifting my focus to building a long position for the pending rally.
4:20pm
ES daily: Signs of accumulation. Check out the tails and increased volume on these daily candles. A bottom for wave 3 is near.
4:07pm
VIX daily: Closes under the 70.50 level, again. This chart gives me the impression it is about to breakout to the upside. Nothing about this looks like a reversal to me.
4:01pm
ES 10m: Observe the power of the 200MA. Encouraging to see volume buying come in at the close on two consecutive days. Supports my view that we are getting closer to a bottom, but I do not think we are there yet.
3:47pm
ES 10m: Making a push back towards the 200MA. Volume surging.
3:37pm
VIX daily: It will be interesting to see where the VIX closes. It may set a new closing high and would represent break above support.
3:26pm
SPY 1m: Notice the VWAP serving as resistance (roughly coincides with 50MA on ES 10m).
3:14pm
SPX Daily: Does history repeat itself? On October 10 we had the Lehman CDS auction. The market tanked and than recovered closing the the upper half of its daily range in the form of a doji candle. Will today look similar?
3:13pm
ES 10m: Pushing into 50MA
3:09pm
SPX 30m: For now, the market is holding the low from Oct. 16 (point b on the chart). Most likely, the triangle’s prior support will now serve as resistance.
2:45pm
VIX 60m: The VIX is approaching former resistance, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see it make new highs. Not sure I want to draw any conclusions from this chart.
2:39pm
Better than average volume on these two buy candles on the ES 10-minute. However, I’m not being fooled. This was not capitulation, and if the market needs to selloff in a parabolic fashion in order to find buyers, that does not exude confidence. I would expect at least a retest of session lows before the day is over.
2:20pm
NASDAQ making fresh bear market lows under Oct. 10 levels.
2:03pm
Washington Mutual final CDS auction value set at $0.57
1:47pm
SPX 60m: My short-term bias is bearish. I expect a retest of 839. Bulls failed to move higher earlier today after consolidating at the 200MA. Bulls failed to hold the triangle’s support. Bulls failed to hold 882 support. Why would I expect the bulls to succeed in reclaiming the triangle? It is clear that the bulls are not in control right now. We are approaching the 2pm reversal time so I remain flexible, but it appears the path of least resistance is lower.
1:34pm
ES 10m: Market looks to be breaking support. How about shorting here with a stop above resistance…
1:29pm
IMF officials deny rumors that emerging market facility could total $1.0T. No specific amount has been discussed as of yet.
1:28pm
Oil Futures 5m: Energy is holding up the market today. If oil breaks down, the market could breakdown with it. (Thanks Ruben)
1:10pm
Impressive reversal candle on increased volume saving the support level.
1:05pm
Bare with some Elliot Wave Theory for a moment: My wave count shows this as the fifth and final wave lower in 3(3). If we consider that this fifth wave will have 5 sub-waves of its own, this is the 3rd wave down. See DanEric40’s post from yesterday. I don’t like to get too bogged down in these sub-waves, but Dan’s analysis looks to be playing out.
12:48am
Holding the 882 level for now. Traders may try to play this from the long side with a tight stop under support. However, I am concerned because the triangle’s support appears to be broken which could open the flood gates for more selling. Perhaps, the triangle can be saved on a 60m chart…
12:38pm
Odd time to see such a strong selloff. I am very cautious here and would rather watch this action from the sidelines. Important for the bulls to hold 882 support. After that, I’d expect a move down to 839 to test the bear market low.
Lesson: When the ES 10-minute touches the 200MA for the first time in a while, it’s probably a good idea to take your profits and anticipate a pullback. Obviously, this selling is more than just a pullback.
12:34pm
SPX 30m: Breaking down through triangle support? Or one heck of a fakeout?
12:29pm
ES 10m: Market got ugly fast. Likely to retest the lows. XLF and QQQQ just made a new lows.
12:18pm
SPY 1m: Market threatening to breakdown. Back below the VWAP. Here’s another support level to watch. If we break that, we will likely retest session lows. ES 10m still requires confirmation of a break below the necktie. We can still save it.
12:08pm
SPY 2-day VWAP (as requested by Schweizer135):
12:05pm
ES 10m: Pulling back into necktie of 20 and 50 moving averages. Crossing moving averages (called a necktie), usually serve as extra strong support (or resistance).
11:43am
In regards to some of the comments below regarding the triangle pattern, Elliot Wave Theory, and Group Think. I have to agree that putting too much stake in any one pattern, wave count, or guru is not prudent. I try to use as many technical analysis tools as I can, combined with market psychology, to predict stock market movement. Sometimes I’m right and sometimes I’m wrong, but I constantly remind myself that the market will do whatever it wants to do, and my analysis and expectations are irrelevant to the market. That is why portfolio and risk management is so important, and something we probably do not spend enough time talking about. If I am a consistently disciplined trader, I will be a consistently profitable trader. When I lose a lot of money, it is not because I was wrong, it is because I was not disciplined. I can probably be wrong 9/10 times and still make money in the market if I cut my losses at planned exit points and let my winners run.
In regards to expert opinions and gurus, they are largely irrelevant to me except for their part in current market psychology. That being said, I enjoy reading analysis by other technicians for alternative ideas and confirmation of my own ideas. But my only teacher is the market, to whom I will forever be a student.
11:15am
Consolidation at 200MA looks healthy on relatively light volume. A continued pullback towards the 50MA wouldn’t surprise me, but neither would another push higher.
10:44am
SPX 30m: Covered 1/2 at the 200MA. Letting the rest run, but I’ll cover if we get back below the 50MA on the ES 10m. Here’s that famous triangle again. We could continue to rally towards resistance above 950 (moving declining target).
10:39am
Market looks to be consolidating in a healthy manner, perhaps preparing for a push higher toward the 200MA on the ES 10m (916.50).
10:35am
Natural Gas Inventory data: +70 bcf v estimate range of +75 to +80 bcf (slightly smaller build than expected)
10:32am
Washington Mutual credit default swaps may recover at $0.636 on the $1. Sellers to pay $0.363. Net open interest to sell at $988M.
10:23am
ES 10m: Why take profits at the 200MA? Well, although it is tempting to hold for more gains toward the triangle’s resistance, a look at this 10-minute chart gives me pause. We have not touched the 200MA in some time now, so the first touch will almost surely serve as strong resistance. I can always re-enter on a pullback. Others may want to take 1/2 off and let the rest run with a mental trailing stop. Really depends on your individual trading style and risk tolerance. Of course, all this assumes we are able to break the 50MA.
10:13am
ES 10m: Back at the 50MA. If we break above it, the next level of combat will be the 200MA ~ a logical profit taking point.
9:50am
ES 10m: This is my kind of setup. Buy above support with a stop below. Also, 9:50 to 10:00 is a popular reversal time. Low risk, high reward.
9:40am
ES 10m: Finding some resistance at the 50MA. Potential topping candle. A pullback towards support would offer an attractive buying opportunity with a stop below support.
9:26am
ES 10m: Short-term support level established
9:23am
Emerging market currencies are reacting to rumors of a $1.0T IMF support package.
8:58am
Remember, the Washington Mutual CDS auction begins today at 9:45am but the final price won’t be published until 2pm.
The TED spread is at 253 bps.
8:52am
SPX 30m: Needs to open above 895 in order to stay within the triangle pattern. Of course, it can open under the triangle and reclaim it. But if the triangle breaks, there is little downside support.
8:30am
Initial Jobless Claims: 478K v 468Ke (prior revised from 461K to 463K). Another week… another worse than expected jobs number.
Good morning.
Check out the new Intraday Commentary Guide for answers to frequently asked questions and general tips and guidelines on how to use this daily forum.
October 23rd, 2008 at 8:26 am
Good Morning…
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 8:26 am
Ola
Futures are all negative, but not enough to call a down movement for the all od the day. So at starting could be a good opportunity to go long for the rally that could happen in the middle of the day, after this all shorts for the last leg of wave 3.
We’ll see.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 8:27 am
Goodmorning Craig.
Where do you see downside support for S&P once it breaks the triangle. Is it 865? Do you think we gap down to 865 followed by a rally to 900 and then a late afternoon selloff to below 865?
TIA
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 8:48 am
There isn’t much downside support if we break the triangle. The only real levels to watch are the break market low at 839 and the 2002 low at 768.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 8:35 am
morning traders!!!
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 8:39 am
ehehehe it’s afternoon here
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 8:50 am
Hi guys,
Would you start to build a position in dgp now? GLD looks like it is approaching a support at $640. I am thinking that all these injections into money markets around the world would lead to higher prices in gold and commodities eventually in the future. What is your play for the market rebound?
Thanks again. Best of luck to all today.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 8:56 am
I believe that would be a good buy for gold at around 660-640ish. I will buy then myself. With inflation around the corner, all hard assets will go higher!!!
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:00 am
Hey Aaron, I agree. I looked at copper, and it seems that there is not that much downside anymore. I might be wrong. Maybe fcx is a good play here, since you get gold and copper exposure at the same time.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:23 am
Tom,
The government is printing silly money for this finincial crisis we’re in! Look at the dollar in your wallet and that will be worth less once inflation hits with the dilution of all the printed money! Hard assets will be more exspensive and that also gets me to think that the housing bottom is very close! Hard assts like lumber, copper, cement, even oil etc…. are going higher!!! think about this, you can buy a house already built for cheaper than it is to buy one to be built with NEW hard assets! So once people understand this and inflation hits, they will buy up the existing homes! The inventories will subside and that’s your bottom!!! I dont know when and its hard to pick a bottom anyways, but thats what I believe, take it for what its worth Tom!
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:32 am
Thank you for your comments. I agree with your analysis. Best of luck to you.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:34 am
The Fed has been printing so much money because no one wants to lend. If you think back to Macroecon, this means that the velocity of money is down, which means there is a net loss of $ if everything else stays the same.
Recessions or Depressions (if you want to get dramatic) are by nature deflationary. Since lending activities are down. Then you have to mentally factor in the loss of production AND consumption due to depressed economic activity.
Here are 2 slightly older articles which might help you out:
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/printarticle.asp?id=mwo042508
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2008/06/30/the-end-of-the-inflation-scare.aspx
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 8:58 am
Hi Tom, no I prefer a more linear double etf, short or long.
Gold is under pressure from different fronts, and it needs more attention.
We only need to discover next speculative bubble.
1990 New economy
2000 House market
2010 ???? (maybe green fuel)
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 8:53 am
FOOD FOR THOUGHT………….
I have heard supporting identical info that Craig has been talking about in recent past & present with the Elliot Wave Theory. I’ve heard from a patent recognition trader and he is watching for a push higher today to the trendline of this descending triangle then a sell off going into the weekend! Over the weekend, the world will come to an end with some catastrophic event happening! Either Friday or Monday will make the low for a huge Short covering rally that could last through Christmas! Have some cash ready, we’re almost there!!!
ALSO: This guy 3 months ago called EXACT DATES of Oct 6th-10th of a crash!!!! pretty earie for him to call it that early 3 Months ago!!! good luck ya’ll
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:02 am
I awoke to about 10 helicopters flying near my house in west la. There’s a big fire 1 mile from my house and am worried the winds might pick up. Aside from that, some of the earnings were positive but jobless claims mights trump that. There are some bids out there and futures are coming back.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:06 am
Wow, stay safe!
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:50 am
Hope you come out all right. I just got through the Porter Ranch fire. It was pretty close. Good luck.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:04 am
Craig,
Art Cashin just validated your Elliot Wave count. Up for today and down big tomorrow or Monday for a true tradable bottom.
Also, I am amazed to see the number of like minded thinkers here..
Like you and many others on this board, among the regular talking heads/guests on CNBC I only pay attention to Mark Haynes, Rick Santelli, Dylan (and his Fast Money gang), Art Cashin and sometimes Faber. I think the most of the rest are just fillers.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:07 am
Well what Art said is that just one more small leg-up before a final washout.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:15 am
I have a large position in SDS @ 96…stay short?
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:57 am
I can’t tell. I am expecting S&P to drop to 760 in the next 4 trading days. It will be a quick intraday trip.
I am seeing signs of REAL capitulation. A few anecdotes.
Here are couple of examples: Look at ALXN - it beat earnings and revenue estimates by 24 cents, and double digit % points. The stock would have been up some 20 points some other day. It is DOWN today.
COF stock price has been defying gravity and fundamentals. For the first time in a couple of weeks I am seeing real selling pressure in COF today.
On yahoo boards, there are still a lot of bulls in fertilizer stocks. Today Potash handily beat estimates. In July, the stock would have been up 20-30%. The liquidation in fertilizers continues today. When the fertilizer bulls on yahoo boards completely throw the towel, the wash out is complete and the market can go up in the interim.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:04 am
My question is how how can the S&P go before we make the plunge…I want to get back into SDS.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:38 am
I am not wired like Craig who can pretty much predict every turn.
So, I have to say - I don’t know how high in the interim. But I am expecting the short-term technical and psychological bottom at 2002 low.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:09 am
If the idea that a bounce toward (e) at 940-950 is going to play out, I think it is good if the futures open flat or a little negative. If we opened up 200 points then I think that move would just get faded. I think it is more constructive to build a little momentum, prior to getting extended.
As someone pointed out yesterday, it has only been a few days, but it seems like we’ve been in this Triangle for about 2 weeks.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:20 am
mornin traders…check out the chart of abk looks like a inverted HS FORMING
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:28 am
JBLU up to yesterdays highs I guess on better than expected earnings? Haven’t read it but I saw they had a loss. DAL,AMR, UAUA down 4% premarket. Expect these stocks to have a real bad day today, especially with crude positive. Although yesterday they were down some ~10%+ from the highs, they still closed positive. They have to have a close below the open sooner or later. LUV up 4% (when oil goes up they go up).
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:44 am
LCC down 9%, DAL down 6%, UAUA down 7%, AMR down 3.5% JBLU up 2%, NWA down 4%…
Done with my airline spam for the day. Gotta go.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:35 am
Morning - or afternoon to those of you across the pond.
I’m not sure why this credit rating agency debacle is not a bigger issue. I guess when everything has fallen apart that it is just news after the fact.
I’m going to pick up a long position in UNG on any significant weakness here. Winter is just around the corner and it has formed a nice trough.
Craig - the ES is traiding in a nice channel down over the past two days. It broke down with the sell off, but came right back in. Let’s see if it holds the top at 910.
Good luck.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:08 am
Craig,
Is the VIX acting right today ? It is positive although the market is about 80 points up as I write this.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:13 am
It is what it is. Might be correcting for some of the manipulation yesterday from the October options expiration. I don’t know…
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:09 am
H&S on the VIX on a 10 day chart? Topping pattern?
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:12 am
Could be… left shoulder is almost the same height as the head, but it could work. I’m watching for a topping pattern on the VIX, but I wouldn’t look too hard for it.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:14 am
DJI hitting resistance 50 MA on 10min
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:17 am
Good call so far on the short-term support, Craig. Are you looking at getting out @ the 200 MA?
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:21 am
That’s a logical level for profit taking. Probably a good idea considering this is a counter-trend trade. Although it is temping to hold until we approach triangle resistance.
I might take 1/2 off at the 200MA and try to let the rest run with a mental trailing stop.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:25 am
Esp considering it’s counter-trend, be greedy with your profit and capital. I’m looking to get out at the 200 MA. Great call
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:24 am
Looks like the ES is struggling with the 50 on the 10 min.
GS is showing weakness.
Volume o AAPL is weak as well.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:25 am
The VIX got up to 96.40?? Wow. I’ll be watching that today. Now @ 70.21.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:32 am
Over the past 2 days, we have seen some very curious prints on the VIX near the open of trading. I would ignore these extremes as outliers. Try using a line chart.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:46 am
Is 917 the 200MA? The chart is small to read…or I am getting old and need glasses.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:54 am
Yea, 916.50 or so.
If you click on the image, does it get bigger for you?
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:07 am
It gets bigger but it is blurry..
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:11 am
Hmmm, it looks crisp on my computer. I wonder why…
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:14 am
Click the blurry image once more, and it’ll get crisp and slightly larger.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:21 am
That works thanks..
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 10:54 am
Odds favor a break to the upside on this triangle based on the ascending triangle pattern, divergences on the overbought VIX, seasonality, seller exhaustion, and all the 5- wave Elliots and Bears calling for a 775 test.
Very likely the wave down since October was an “A” and we are going to correct at least half of it in a “B” that is in process, likely to target the 50w-ma now at 1316.
All the bad earnings, unemployment news, and increasing foreclosure reports have not had an effect. Read that as BULLISH.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:17 am
McHugh ( http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com ) says odds are only 5% for an upside break on this triangle. He’s been dead right all along in how the market has played out since he called the crash on Sep. 29. Just saying, be careful about staying long too long.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:19 am
I’m with him on that. I don’t see an upside break in the cards, but a rally towards resistance is possible. Either way, long trades should be conservative and quick to capture profits given that they are counter-trend trades. I expect the next major move will a selloff and breakdown through triangle support.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:24 am
That is the concensus, and that is why it likely will not happen.
Too many people on the same side of the boat. We shall see.
The huge buying on the SPY late yesterday was significant imo.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:33 am
A lot of people have become married to a particular wavecount and don’t see other possibilities.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Sorry, reproof humbly taken. Just trying to caution optimism for an upside break.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:49 pm
I went into his site and read a couple of the report. Holy crap. I cannot believe how back in January this guy managed to predict so accurately what is going to happen.
The scary part - he seems to agree about the biiiig fall after the 2 month rally ahead, including USD to new lows and the Dow to deep lows.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:25 am
From what I know of triangles, the way the break is influenced by which direction the triangle is entered. We entered this triangle from above, which normally forebodes a break to the downside.
There might be a lot of bears around here, but there are a lot more people in the media saying that we’ve already hit the bottom.
Not trying to dissuade you at all. If you firmly believe this and are going to play it, have in stops and be aware of all the MA’s that are close to the current market.
Personally, I believe we do have some more downside which will end truncated. From what I’ve read before, there is normally a mkt surge after the president elections. Might dig around and see if I can find an article on that…
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:57 am
Hard to stay committed to the short side, but I am trying. I’ve screwed up a bunch of good trades dumping shorts when I never should have. I don’t trust major media, although some are calling it as they see it. What have I learned, stick with your overall conviction till something confirms it the other way. At this point, nothing has majorly occurred to turn me into a bull.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:18 am
SPY 1 min and 5 min charts both look like ready to roll over
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:06 pm
what a sell off!
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:19 am
ES support at the 50MA? 10 min chart
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:30 am
I’m seeing quite a few posts regarding pundits/sites being “dead on” on calling the bottom, correction, triangle formation, EWT etc. Let’s be objective when using such terms. I can recall many times when a pundit has been right “here and there” but let’s not get caught up with that stuff. That’s the stuff that leads to the Yahoo style of discussions and generates a herd mentality. Let’s keep our egos in check. My 2 cts.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:45 am
well said…
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:52 am
Nice. I’m enjoying the diversity of this site. It has been fun to see who remaines short and who has gone long both near and short term. The discussions and reasons all good. Excellent stuff. Plus, only Mr. Long has earned the right to scream from the mountain top and he is not around right now. LOL
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Sorry, reproof humbly taken. Just trying to caution on optimism for an upside break.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:09 pm
I actually appreciated your earlier comment.
Pumping and bashing should be discouraged, but overzealous monitoring ruins a good forum.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Craig - can you post a 2-day VWAP on the SPY?
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Done, what’s your take?
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Thanks. The 70mil shares in buys on the SPY in a 20m peiriod late Wednesday are possibly new buyers, so I wanted to see where the VWAP stood. It is right-on the 50p on the 10m (StockCharts). Interesting.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:18 pm
could this b a buul flag formming
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Party’s Over and Headed Down?
893-895 still a support?
I’ve been trading POT this AM. Don’t bite me. I didn’t say hold for 3 mos or even overnight- I said D-A-Y trading.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:21 pm
I took some profit with POT calls this am too. NOV also. Volatility is huge in those two.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:20 pm
10m VIX is cycling up again.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Look at the QQQQ’s they tell a story. They have been in a distribution type descending wedge.
Sentiment favorites like the qqqq’s are a clue on the direction of the market near term.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Very good positive divergences on the Daily.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:27 pm
My two cents - ES is trading in a decending triangle and withinn that triangle a decending channel that it could not break out of. ES support at 880. If we break that then support on bottom trend line may be near 872 or yesterday’s low depending on how long it takes us to get there. If we break that - away we go. This is all from my chart I posted two days ago. We held the top fib fan as resistance at the top earlier. I think I’m on to something for what it is worth.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:28 pm
May get some programed trading at these levels soon. Let’s see.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Yesterdays big buys were right here at 870-895.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:47 pm
882 defended. Good call Craig! Nice candle.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Held three times now. Ditto on the good call Criag.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Spoke too soon!
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:48 pm
We just bounced back from todays low 884.30. Will it be able to hold it.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:50 pm
right shoulder just formed on abk ,taking a shot here
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 12:51 pm
I think the oddly timed selloff (led by financials) may have been the result of Chris Cox testimony that strong regulation is needed.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Craig,
Energy is holding this market up, USO 1min. is attempting a H&S.
Should we break the neckline, the whole market will come collapsing down..
Greetings,
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Pos diver on 10m 2day MACD, RSI, CCI on the SPX favors a good pop here at support.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Just a thank you for Craig.
I keep reading your trading guidelines to get myself to become more disciplined. I tend to hold onto losing positions for way too long based on my fundamental analysis. Well today I decided to go long, but it went the other way and I cut my losses on the long side and went short. Sure enough it covered my losses and left me with a small profit. Lesson learned and reinforced.
Thanks
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:17 pm
And to your second comment about nervous money, when it got near yesterdays lows I got nervous and decided to close the position. Again, worked out wonderfully.
I encourage everyone to read the rulebook and live by it. It contains a ton of great advice:
http://www.stocktock.com/traders-toolkit/stocktock-rule-book/
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Technical analysis video: EUR/New Turkish Lira, Gold, and German Yields.
Says gold may go down to as low as $550. Scary for any longs out there.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=901442662&play=1
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Here is an excellent post by MISH today at
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/10/s-500-crash-count-compared-to-nikkei.html
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:23 pm
To me today’s action reminds me of the action in the 1st week of Sept. All the volatility we saw on that week we are seeing in single day. Per say, the price swings are not huge in absolute terms, but they are shortened in duration. For example, in the 2 min it took me to compose this post, DOW went from -50 to +20 to now -40.
Fasten your seat belts. I think we are going to see a 7xx handle on S&P in very short order.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:31 pm
I have no problem if somebody wants to call it a crash, or me a fool.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:34 pm
I haven’t seen that behavior around here yet, and hope never to.
Conversely, couldn’t you just view this as continuing the narrowing of the triangle? There has been a fair amt of volume supporting the trendline from breaking down…
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Matt,
Of course I was joking. I said in an earlier StockTock post that predicting crash is a fool’s pass-time. It is an attempt at self deprecating humor.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Again!!…
Craig,
Please notify the group on this…
Energy is holding this market up,
The USO 1min. 2 day chart is attempting a H&S formation..
Should we break the neckline, the whole market will come collapsing down..
I’m taking a short position SSO if or when it does..
Very Bearish!
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:31 pm
looks like a w forming
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Any thoughts on what, if any, effect the 2PM WM CDS auction decision will have on the market?
Might be why financials are weak so far this aft.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:34 pm
CNBC started talking about this as I pushed the send button. May answer my question.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:33 pm
I think we may be finally saying goodbye to Triangle. That triangle is obvious to even those who don’t emphasize technicals and the breakdown/breakout will be hard to ignore for all market participants, regardless of their bullish/bearish stance.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Pos diver on 10m 2day MACD, RSI, CCI on the SPX favors a good pop here at support. The triangle may suck us back inside perhaps.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Gold and UUP negative. As I said yesterday, what correlation?
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Craig,
Here is my strong opinion about the officials, authorities and the powers that be (IMF or whoever) .
They themselves are thinking that they are still in control.
They keep trying and issuing ’statements’ to reassure people that they can still fix this.
The survival dynamic is in full control. It has to obliterate the weak.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:44 pm
I was reading the article on mish’s website, posted by someone here.
The Nikkei infact looks poised to make a huge move (I mean a bull type huge) in the next 5 years. Does any one have a long term say 30-40 yr of the nikkei?
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 2:39 pm
Good article by Mish. I am not sure about his wave count. I still see us in 3(3) but I could be wrong. I’m inclined to agree with Mish so I will have to review my count.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Craig hello!
I would say in my opinion it’s dangerous now to be bearish. I’m looking at low volume and the MACD is ready to give a bullish signal. At least It seems like this… So, I try to short again from 886 p. SP500 (18 day MA expo) a little, but I must take into consideration that we was very strong up from 872 support line. (SP500)
best wishes
Jury
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Big sell-offs occur from such oversold and ‘ready-for-rebound’ situations. Then again, you could be right.
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:47 pm
smaller tighter wedge has formed
[Reply]
October 23rd, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Bullish falling wedge over 3 days. Nice.
[Reply]