Possible Wave Count
SPX 60m: Credit on this one goes to Kenny from his public chart list. Scroll down to the bottom to view his chart and supporting analysis.
* There are several possible wave counts right now from different technicians, so be careful putting too much stake in any one count.
For Elliot Wavers, check out these great charts, courtesy of Jerry48:
VIX daily
The VIX sold off hard today, right through prior support in the 52-54 area. But notice how it touched the 50-day moving average and bounced.
XLF daily
Can’t help but notice the pathetic volume on this bounce.
GS daily
Clearly, something is wrong with Goldman Sachs. This stock is no longer a market bellwether. Weakness in GS does not necessarily translate into weakness in the overall market. But this is a stock to keep an eye on.
UNG daily
Nice gain today on better than average volume, but still in a well defined downtrend.
FCX daily
First touch of the 20MA since September 22. There was notable accumulation on increased volume last week, but today’s volume was light. This remains a very damaged and broken stock.
ES 60m
Trading in a rising channel
GLD weekly
In a bear market, but fighting to hold support. Can’t ignore the fact that gold has outperformed other commodities, but that does not mean its going higher. If you’re long, keep a stop near 70.
C daily
Better looking than GS, but chart still looks ugly. Volume declining as the stock rises.
TNX (10-year treasury yield) weekly
Potential double bottom pattern. Needs to break above the mid-point of the W before the pattern is confirmed.
FSLR daily
Double bottom pattern. Looks to have more upside towards $250.
ACI daily
I’m not seeing any sign that a bottom is in.
GM daily
I wouldn’t touch this stock from the long side. Has not participated in the rally.
GE daily
Broke above its 20MA on rumors it may benefit from the TARP. Volume increased but was still relatively light. Important for the stock to confirm this break tomorrow.
Adding more charts as the night wears on.
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November 4th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
Will you be running anything on C? The chart looked horrible yesterday and then today they were one of the strongest banks in terms of percent increase all day and closed towards the highs of the day.
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November 4th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
Yea, just added it.
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November 4th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
What’s the point of calculating when the game is rigged?
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November 4th, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Calculating what?
The stock market has always been a game and has always been manipulated. All the manipulation is reflected in the charts. There is money to be made, regardless of why prices move.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
took oil for a ride to hedge against my S&P short. covered S&P short at 986 as your chart suggested and took it out again at 998. took short oil at $70.50 and am wondering if oil has any support despite amazing demand destruction. is support at $65 ? lumber companies have failed to rally with the market on any volume. increased my short position on CFP on its pitiful rally. can you do an analysis of lumber futures? the debt downgrades have begun on them and im wondering which will go bankrupt returning an excellent short position profit.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Hey Guys,
Let me know what you think of this Wave count. It says 3(3) is starting possibly now. It also shows subwave v. as truncated. Thought I would put that out there, the numbers work out. C wave is a bit too long but we have been subject to market manipulation the last few days.
http://i471.photobucket.com/albums/rr79/kturbin46/email-11865920-1.png
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Kelly, I’d be curious how you labeled the selloff from May through July. That is my 3(1).
Not sure how you have it labeled.
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November 5th, 2008 at 12:45 am
Yen crosses all selling off signifincantly after the election results announced.
EUR/JPY drops from 129.30 to 127.50. Citi is stopped out of their long GBP/JPY at 157.40
We could see some follow thru tomorrow with equity markets lower. Yen crosses and S&P futures are highly correlated.
Pete
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November 5th, 2008 at 12:48 am
Thanks Pete. Not much reaction in the S&P futures yet. Interesting to see the reaction in FX.
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November 5th, 2008 at 12:52 am
Maybe it’s coming soon. Actually they did drop a little bit. I saw ES trading just around 1006 right when the results were announced. Last 1002
I’m thinking either futures drop more between now and the morning, or possible yen crosses recover some.
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November 5th, 2008 at 1:01 am
To all the bears here: careful with shorts tomorrow. Look what happened to the Dow on the innaugaration day of Roosevelt in the beginning of March 1933. Add to this strong Asian markets and some inspiring speech by Obama, and all the technical analysis may have to be put on hold. It’s a great website and good luck to all!
Andrew
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