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Strong market today, closing near session highs. SPX finished higher by more than 4% to 1005.69. Again, the volume was light, but price action trumps volume.
3:35pm
Bulls took back the VWAP. Impressive…
3:15pm
ES 1m: Testing the VWAP from underneath, now resistance
3:01pm
ES 10m: Breaking intraday trendline and 50MA on increased volume.
2:53pm
VIX 60m line chart:
2:51pm
ES breaking support levels
2:17pm
ES 1m (left): Holding VWAP | ES 10m: Holding 50MA
2:09pm
ES 10m: Testing 50MA (coincides with VWAP in chart below)
2:07pm
ES 1m: Testing VWAP support
1:49pm
ES 1m: Important resistance level at 1004.50. A break above that level will bring in more buyers.
1:41pm
ES 10m: Finding support on the 20MA, but the volume is light
1:13pm
ES 1: Approaching VWAP
12:44pm
ES 10m: Pulling back into its 20MA on light volume.
12:27pm
Oil has screamed higher all day, now up 12% to $71.50
12:07pm
ES 60m: Still trading in rising channel.
11:24am
ES 10m: Pullback so far on light volume
11:10am
VIX 60m: VIX support has been broken without a fight.
11:04am
ES 60m: Touching top of channel
10:47am
Gap has been filled on SPX daily.
10:39am
SPX daily: Gap nearly filled (gap fill: 998.01, intraday high: 997.67)
10:35am
VIX 60m: Under 47
10:26am
ES 2h: In the channel. Finding some resistance at previous top level.
10:22am
SPX daily: Gap levels
10:14am
ES 1m: Bulls trying to reclaim VWAP
ES 10m: Saved 50MA
10:00am
September Factory Orders: -2.5% v -0.8%e
9:54am
VIX 60m: Falls under 49
9:47am
ES 10m: Pulling back into 50MA
9:43am
The US dollar is falling quickly. Crude oil at session highs above $66.50
9:41am
GS trading at session lows, down 1.5%. This stock is not as important to the market as it used to be.
9:34am
SPX trades above $986. VIX trading under 51.
9:16am
ES 10m:
8:55am
Let’s see where the SPX opens. Trading above $986 threatens the validity of the triangle pattern.
Here is some great analysis by Evil Speculator. He examines the different Elliot Wave scenarios and a potential inverse head and shoulders that could form. (Thanks to Mimi for the link).
November 4th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Mornin - I guess everyone is out voting. Interesting premarket action. I was not expecting the bulls to run thru the upper trendline. The irrationality of this move is bizarre. As you have herd me say greed kills and pigs get slaughtered. Looks like the bulls will play out my idea of a possible push to 1,000 and that should be it around 1,008 (which if the current uptrend holds might coincide with the upper channel line. At any touch of the upper channel today I will be going short. I just can’t find a reason for this climb.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Craig - ES 1m possibly forming H&S pattern at the 61.8 fib retracement line from ES 1095 within the channel. The fib line is acting as resistance at the shoulders. Neckline at 987.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:21 am
i know this is a technical board, but the bullishness from the talking heads right now is unreal. Can they really delude themselves that all is well. They are trying any and everything they can to justify this gap up.
Be very nimble today traders, today could be a doozy.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:15 am
Just you and me today bro! I guess no one is expecting anything to happen in the market today. I’m thinking we may get a big move near the close and that we better have a game plan in place for tomorrow. Once this election is out of the way, focus will return to the markets and a more clear economic picture will be in place given the results of the elections.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:45 am
And me brotha man, I believe we just double topped. Sorry for the lack of TA in this post, but Market Psychology is setting up nicely for a DUMP!
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:16 am
I believe the only rational reason to buy stocks now is expected hyperinflation. But the price of TIPS, gold and the dollar show that these markets do not consider this scenario a near-term possibiity. I find the push over 986 bizzare and will hold my shorts (with call insurance) regardless of what the charts say.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:23 am
I agree, nearterm hyperinflation or the recession is over in q2 2009. Only reasons to be an “investor” at this point.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:29 am
‘expected hyperinflation’
- this will happen later in the business cycle… but not yet… All that money pumped in needs velocity. Without it, both households and billions dollar firms, hoard cash, becuase they need it for other things than discretionary spending/expansion. In the meantime, anything denominated in USD (including stocks) become cheaper as the USD continues to appreciate relative to most other currencies.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:44 am
I agree with your view, Michael. I have been an avid follower of austrian economics. The money needs velocity. Right now, the velocity is declining faster than the inflow. In my opinion the FED also knows about this. They will continue to flood until everyone is sitting on a pile so huge that the gates will be opened. I don’t know when that will occur, as you say probably in the next cycle.
The trouble I am having is what would happen to currency relationships. Since, most govts. are doing the same, does the dollar have to go down in relation to other currencies? There has been a global deflation- can we see a global hyperinflation and not a local hyperinflation as being predicted in the media (saying the dollar will be reduced to rub(b)le.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:37 am
‘Since, most govts. are doing the same, does the dollar have to go down in relation to other currencies?’
- If an investor believes that the US will lead the world out of the recession, then the dollar has to strengthen. Currencies are relative. The US dollar can increase in relative purchasing power either because of strong fundamentals in our domestic economy, or because foreign curencies are further weakened/diluted for whatever reason under sun. Dilution is taking place worldwide as many central banks pump cash into their banking systems. The problem overseas is, that the GDPs of their individual countries are smaller (in some cases far smaller), and the net infusions are a larger percentage of those nation’s GDPs. This impacts them more. Therefore their currencies’ purchasing power becomes further eroded. This becomes an opportunity for US firms to acquire foreign assets on the cheap with stronger USD (be they natural resources, captial such as existing factories/firms, or labor pools.)
Near the end of Clinton’s second term, we had a very strong USD, higher inflation (than anytime since), and just as important strong wage growth. Wage growth is the key to the puzzle, this will only happen after the economy bottoms, and that (along with a hopefully stronger USD at the time) will increase the consumer’s purchasing power. Long term investors want to be in place and invested Before this happens. The million dollar question is … when.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Amen, brother!
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
very thoughtful post michael. I have one last question/comment?
There is one opposing force - these other countries also provide greater interest rates and have higher CRRs meaning they are simply shoring up the banks/financial institutions. They also have higher growth compared to the US. The dollar chart looks like it can go all the way upto 100. I know this is a comparative index, heavily weighted against the euro.
What about something like the chinese RMB or the Indian Rupee or the Singapore Dollar or the Kiwi Dollar or SA rand? These give higher interest rates. I am looking to buy dividend stocks in these markets. They have tremendous dividends, I am thinking of how the conversion will affect them.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:22 am
today and/or the 7th are the turning days on Gannfann’s book.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Please explain/Link, sorry I am not sure what you are talking about
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:57 am
finding harmony in chaos
the most amazing TA based forecaster around. reading his comments since March and compare to the daily chart will make your jaw drop!
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Controlling Emotions Driven by News Driven Trading
Controlling emotions is the single most important thing one should do if you want to be a successful trader/investor.
I will give you my personal example form four years ago. In early 2004 I collected a lot of information about iPod phenomenon and even collected anecdotal data on iPod ownership from my daughter’s high school kids. Earlier that year iPod photo was released. I foresaw an iPod video on the horizon and possibly more oomph and winning products from Apple. I jumped with both feet and bought calls. Lots of calls. Nov 04 through April 05. Through Nov 4th, I made some 600% in 6 months.
This is not a political statement. But hear me out. I thought if Bush gets reelected, it is going to be a disaster for the economy in the long run. I voted for Kerry. As soon as Kerry lost, I felt emotional and sold all my Apple positions. I eventually blew the proceedings in 2005 some bearish bets on Home Builders (a bet too early on housing collapse). Had I stuck to my original game plan on Apple, I would have stayed in Apple at least till the end of 2007.
That emotional decision to sell after Bush’s win cost me in 7 figures.
The lesson I learned form that experience is this: market fundamentals don’t change on a dime. Definitely not based on who wins as president.
If you were thinking that the market is headed down you should still be bearish regardless of election outcome.
If you thought the market will continue to go higher on its own technical and fundamentals, you should be bullish - regardless of election outcome.
In the long run administration policies do matter and they affect market fundamentals.
Whoever wins the election, won’t change the dynamics of the markets beyond one or two days.
My advise: don’t buy or sell based on the election result.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:33 am
You have to take today’s action with a grain of salt, even if it alters the charts a bit. I am not making any changes to my bearish bets today.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Don’t get distracted by the election driven hype….
Remember what matters the most for this week is the Jobs report on Friday.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:33 am
natgas has broken out of its descending wedge, if it closes about the line today, it could signal that the correction C is done. Just like Silver
Commodities are breaking out one by one.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Craig,
There is a H/S formation in premarket trading. Doe it matter?
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Loaded on SDS premarket, sold off on open for a nice scalp.
This market is heading for 1008 as far as I can see
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:56 am
I like the 1,008 call and I might replace it with a 1,068 call later. I guess I’m turning into a bull in bear clothing. I do not think we’ll get to 1,008 without GS participating. I’m thinking the market turns south a week after Craig gives up his bear stance. That will mark the top.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:40 am
GS geting hit.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Craig, more weakness from GS. This is very interesting.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:48 am
$SPX- maybe a trendline up from yesterdays low and a trendline down from todays first high might meet at 10:45 at 97.75?
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:51 am
might want to look to GDX on the longside, broke through 38% fib retracement, next stop is 24.xx
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:11 am
the safest play is the spread between gld and gdx: short gld, long gdx.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:13 am
Agree with you on this one. Infact I touted this play sometime back.
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:53 am
would today’s open qualify for a blowoff top. Big runnup without correction and now a gap up on SPX?
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November 4th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Sounds good. Hourly indicators shows downward pressure continues. We likely will paint a Black candle for the day to signal a rally top.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:03 am
It definitely has the opposite ‘feel’ of Oct 10 - at least to me. On Oct 10, futures were limit down and there was a lot of choppy action during the day. On that day I was saying it was time to go long for possible bounce.
Today is yet to unfold. I expect it it be first up, then down, then up and then close down. something like +200 to -100, +150 and finally -50: If this pattern unfolds, expect considerable sell off into Thu and possibly through Friday
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Haha you are kidding right? That has got to the be most amazing post ever if it happens
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:43 am
Could be wishful thinking also.
Seriously, in the short-term this market cannot ignore the all important jobs report which is due out on Friday.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Setting up like a crappy volume day again. Maybe we get something at the close. CNBC talking earlier about an election day rally in the markets because they like certainty.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:08 am
ES holding up at 980. this was the decline from H&S pattern earlier.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:12 am
UNG is acting very nicely. Is this trigger? Things seems very rosey. I will wait for the inventory number reaction before dipping some more. The most ideal situation would be if we get a bad inventory and natgas still rallies.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:22 am
Correct me if I am wrong, but UNG should act independent of the market going into winter, correct? Demand drives price? Supply is a concern, but winter equals cold weather and a need to heat your house. Am I missing something here? I know this is not pure TA. I see a run to 33.50 which should be an easy 10% with a ton of upside above that.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:25 am
The more I look at it, the more I think something is up with UNG. Volume is heavier than recent days.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:32 am
I wouldn’t attribute any reasons for price action etc. IMO that is silly. Well it has been winter for the last 2 weeks too.
I care more about seasonals and cycles. Natgas missed the last seasonal around september. 2nd week of november is a bullish time for natgas.
There is definitely something up with natgas,. It has broken out of the descending wedge C, If it holds today, I am dipping some more in. I have been playing UNG:USO pair trade, I will ease off on USO short and go longer the UNG if it breaks. Looks like a nice return to the 50 region atleast.
The COT is just spectacular. This definitely could be the trigger.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:13 am
bear flag in GS?
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Something I missed - TAN the solar index is up almost 100% over the last 6 days. What a miss.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:33 am
It’s at $13,48 off a high of $30.79. This index should enjoy the presumed candidate. I’d keep it on a watch list and buy on ant weakness.
My opinion on alt energy - it will be the next bubble and is what will lead us out of this recession in job growth. This will be the next big thing. To me this is very clear.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:45 am
My opinion is that alt energy already made it’s bubble alongside oil, I don’t think it likely to come again, but I could be very wrong…
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Shanky,
Are you waiting to put yr shorts on at the top of the upperward channel at 1005 or at the gap fill lvl/double top area 995/1000.
THX
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:41 am
Mindless touting, like what happened on the board a few days back - Go bad rockets surge ! surge!
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:49 am
1008 is our first target. Go bad rockets
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:54 am
ok thanks.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Top of channel for sure. After 1,008 I’ll watch it for a roll over. We’re almost there.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
I called the bounce off the bottom perfect yesterday. To the minute. This channel has been strong. I’m not seeing any other patterns right now, other than a big green worm climbing up my computer screen. A bounce off the top should be good for at least a 2 to 3% short scalp I believe. Gotta make sure it holds the top though.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Nice one shanky. I think I will play the trend rather than the short scalp. I have had my short scalp of the day at the open.
Look at some of the insurers abmac etc. Charts looking quite bullish.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:47 am
GS has def joined the rally. Things are looking rosy for the bulls today. Fakeout or breakout for this rally.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Gannfann’s 2nd resistance for today: 998-1000.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Craig,
What about the gap from 9/25 and 9/26 on SPY? Is it possible that we move higher to fill that gap and then fall back to 900? Your thoughts are appreciated.
Phil
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:58 am
Not seeing that gap. Do you have the right dates?
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Wrong dates . . . 10/3 and 10/6 Sorry about that.
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November 4th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Gap on oct 3 closed on the VIX as well…
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
We have also created a gap today, could that gap be filled today?
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Yes, but I doubt it.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Interesting lack of resistance to 10/13 highs…
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Incidentally, the panamax component of the baltic dry index saw the first green sign after a long time. Does any one know when the BDI was last green?
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Learning the hard way here. Got stopped out of ES short at 997. sonofabitch…………….. I just don’t have the nads to reverse to a long position. I will sit here and lick my wounds for a while and watch some more Jim Rogers/Peter Schiff videos to make me feel better.
Incredible how anyone would buy this stuff in light of the gloomy data.
Well, since this site doesn’t care about anything but the charts, I assume that we are all long now?
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
Hourly RSIs are over 70 so this ain’t going much further.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Agreed.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
PPT putting our tax money to work today. Crooks.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
I said it a few days ago we would push thru 1,000 on the ES. I know this is not TA but it is a sentiment issue. Market wants a level, it will get it. We got it and turn should come sooner than later.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Shanky,
What is sentiment of you clients like?
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Turning at 1004 - gonna take a 1/3 short position here just in case we don’t get to the trendline.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Actually peeling off on some equity longs from last week and diverting them to commodities.
Look at silver, very nice.
May I present the silver gameplan
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A3298
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
the main trend is still down and the counter trend rally may have some difficulties to pass 11.40.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
I don’t disagree. I don’t know where the resistance will be. But I think we could get to 14 in the next couple of months, in an A-B-C correction. That is why I opened a call spread at 13 and 14 for mar 09 and am way in green :-)))
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Is this Clarke?
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
No But the figure is from his blog. The idea is his sure, but the money mine
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
The chart looked familiar…
I have been thinking about SLV…but it maybe to late to jump in.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
1008 or 1010 is gona be the number on the ES - if this is violated I’ll quit.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
a big flare on SPY. a dash higher or push lower?
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
New trades by Citibank.
We are going long GBPJPY
At 160.29 with a minimum 165-166 target and possibly as high as 180
S/L at 157.40
In line with our Equity/risk view articulated earlier we look at the GBPJPY chart and believe it can be a big beneficiary here.
The short-term chart is now looking like a bull flag while the daily chart looks like the consolidation is ending and the next up move beginning.
We do not think a move to the 55-day moving average is out of the question here.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
I’m paying attention to these C posts. You have been right morre than wrong. Keep em coming.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Yes you should definetely pay attention to the citi posts. These guys go in streaks. I’ve seen them correct on 10 trades in a row in the past. I’ve also seen them wrong 7 straight. I’ve been following them for a long time.
In order for them to be right here (GBP/JPY going higher). They are expecting a higher rally in equities from here. I can assure you if equities head lower tomorrow and stay down, then you are going to see yen crosses all lower with equities. Hence EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY etc all lower. It’s going to be interesting.
Pete
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
FWIW:
Factory Orders Month over Month: -2.5% vs -0.8% Estimate.
How long will investors be able to repress these negative figures?
I think once people receive their brokerage statements next week a new wave of redemptions will begin.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
I believe the high we just saw will hold for a long time. Those trying to eke out a McCain win by manipulating the market only need to keep the market positive for a few more hours. I’m sure some of these operatives are already starting to sell to limit their personal losses or losses to the fund thats funding them.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
That’s weird.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Yup. No new money is entering here. Just shorts getting their stops hit imo.
Earnings are caving as so therfore will prices, worldwide.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Just a fun thought - the fib retracement from the low on the ES of 825 to 1010 is 893.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
61.8 retrace that is. I’m thinking the election rally is priced in. I’m afraid there is more upside to this run, but fall is imminent. I’m slowly entering shorts that I will not relinquish.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
RSI and MACD way in the nosebleed section. Another Fib retracement point - from the last touch of the lower channel trendline at 996 on the ES to the top at 1004 the 61.8 retracement takes you to the last low of 980. This should provide solid support.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
966 not 986. Sorry.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Try showing the Vix as a line chart and you have what looks to me like an expanding triangle which is about cooked and ready to burst to the upside again. As for the S&P since the last Fed meeting, looks to me like an ending diagonal 5th which is about cooked. Get ready to short first hourly reversal candlestick from 1002.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
$VIX hit the 61.8% retrace today on the daily and is below the lower Bollinger band. The 50dma is $44.41 where it’s finding support.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Craig - Could the ES be forming a massive inverted H&S formation? Look at it. If we continue the uptrens it would be huge. The low at 980 is the top of the head. Take a look.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
It is pretty and getting prettier.
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
I think in the next month or so, my odds for seeing 1100 are greater than retesting 840. We are definitely going to see pullback for the later part of the week. That is a no-brainer. I want to see how the pullback is handled by the market before buying. It will yield the last piece of evidence if this is really wave 4 or still wave 3.
As for now, I am peeling off on my silver stocks etc. Look at the RSX just crazy action. Also entering into retail shorts.
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November 4th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
SP500
Aug 11 - 1313
Oct 10 - 839
A 50% upwards retracement puts us at roughly ~ 1076. I’m not the least bit surprised if the SP500 retraces this high. In 00-02′ , the third leg down in Oct 01′ (which ended exactly at 38.2% down from the high) retraced up to a peak +230 points, or +47%.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Phew Just sold half of my SSRI, from a couple of days back.
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Mav, you sure know what you’re doing. I exited my longs a couple days too early.
I actually thought you were short precious metals, all well this market flips so fast, one day is different from the rest. Will you be just shorting retail or are you looking at other things. Will also be holding off buying any long positions for the rest of the week, things getting a little overextended and husband is getting very emotional that we are missing this rally (must be getting temporarily toppy ha ha! =)
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
I was and am short Gold. But long silver. I play pairs whenever I can, e.g. UNG:USO. Since, they give some sort of cushion on the downside and you know the relative risk reward ratio. I am still short gold. I took a large portion of profits at 700 which I told earlier. But I still have 10% of my gold short position (and I am in @ 745), so basically I am underwater on this position. But I still think gold is cooked. It could go upto 800, then silver longs (which I own) will surely see 14.
If and when gold gets to 800, I will add to gold shorts. I will add in 20$ intervals to both positions.
If you have missed this rally, not to worry, there is a pullback coming soon (later this week). That will decide whether the rally can carry into 1100 or we roll back down. My gut feeling says, it will be a contained pullback (upto ES 930), We could see a rally unto 1100 or so in the coming months.
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Thanks for being so quick to reply, I didn’t necessarily miss this rally, just didn’t take as much as i could have - you know how greedy we can get, been doing this for 10 years, so I have experience there.
I trade the uraniums mainly so ones like DML.TO (Denison) did a 42% rally Oct 30 and UUU.TO did a 42% rally Nov 3, so you’re sitting here going geesh…
I think your strategy to cover at both ends is good and very much agree that I see GDX performing much better that GLD.. we eventually could have a future being long in the gold and silver stocks. i like the potential of silver… way behind gold.
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Nice, uranium trade. Those are truly explosive stocks. I remember getting caught in URRE once upon a time. I have never touched them since. Maybe time to revisit.
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November 4th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
I think 1024 is the target (50 mov average).
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Anyone have thoughts on GS.. I was disapointed when it started to participate in the rally today.
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
that be kiss of death scenario for me.
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Posted a photo of my ES H&S on social. Looking at a 20 pt pop if it plays out. We might see 1064 today. Unbelieveable.
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Loading up on EEV.
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Im new to EEV, what makes the EVV move. I know its an ultra-short ETF but can you tell me more about it??
Thanks
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
It supposed to be opposite of EEM, which is broad based emerging market index fund. So fall in EEM should translate in rise in EEV.
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
EEV looks like a great entry here.
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November 4th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Good choice. I got in too early.
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
ES trying to hold the channel that is forming the right shoulder. If this plays out, the breakout will coincide with the break of upper trendline of the larger channel. Looks like this uptrend will provide more shorting opportunity later in the day. I’m holding off for now.
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Again conflicting patterns - bull H&S going into the upper channel trendline (bear). The H&S fails near the critical point. This is anpther example of these contradictory formations at key levels. The bears won this one. that is unusual.
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
H+S on the spy forming (1 minute)?
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=um7cKOH1RLY
Tony Cherniawski said yesterday that we might get “a spice little rally” today up to 1010 before a major selloff..
That the market is being manipulated with during elections.. (I guess we all knew that didn’t we.. hurray for the PPT)..
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Craig - I would like to point out that the breakout from the symetrical triangle we had yesterday should take us to 1007. top of triangle on ES was at 984. The bottom was 945. 984-946=38. the breakout occurred at 969. 969+38=1007. We’ve topped out at 1005. I’ll take that as good for chart fulfillment. These numbers are eerily working out. This may be the top. My right shoulder is hanging in there, but beginning to break down. If it fails that may be it for the bulls today.
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Is anyone getting on DXO?
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November 4th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Bearish divergence on NDX 5-min
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