3:54pm
ES 10m: Still trading above the 61.8% retracement at $895.
3:02pm
Regarding Elliot Wave, it is still not clear whether which wave structure is playing out. Always important to keep an open mind.
- Wave 1 down of wave 5 of 3(3)
- I favor this scenario because this selloff feels impulsive, not corrective
- Wave b down of 3(4)
- Wave b retraced nearly 61.8% of wave a on the ES, but did complete the 61.8% retracement on the SPX.
- Therefore, consider the possibility that we start wave c up in the short-term. Today’s selling is probably related to anticipation of a weak jobs report tomorrow, so it could be a “sell the rumor, buy the news” situation.
2:44pm
ES 10m: Next resistance level at 50MA (~928.75)
Just noticed a great post by farsighted called Andrews Pitchfork on SPX. Check it out on Social.
2:13pm
ES 10m: 20MA serving as some resistance. We did see the volume pick up on the bounce, perhaps short covering. The 61.8% retracement sits below at $895.
2:01pm
ES 10m: Watch the 20MA for resistance
1:57pm
ES 1m: Broke trendline. 2pm is a popular reversal time.
1:51pm
ES 1m: Trendline to watch
1:44pm
The VIX is up 18.6% today to 64.75
1:33pm
ES 10m: Has not even come close to its 20MA since the open.
1:22pm
ES 60m: Are we headed for the 61.8% retracement at $895?
12:36pm
ES 10m: Has broken the $917 level. Very extended from 20MA.
12:02pm
ES just successfully retested 917 support.
11:37am
ES hit 50% retracement to the tick at 917. Anticipating a bounce from here, but we could retrace 61.8% (895).
11:22am
ES 60m: Approaching 50% retracement
11:18am
VIX above 60. Crude under 61. Gold into negative territory. USD at session highs.
11:00am
ES 10m: Looks like a bottoming candle, but the volume was not greater than preceding candle, so it is not reliable.
10:55am
VIX 60m:
10:44am
ES 60m: Eying the 50% retracement level for support, profit taking
10:41am
/CL 60m: Crude oil trading at a fresh 52-wk low.
10:35am
EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +12 bcf v consensus of +26 to +28 bcf (smaller build than expected, UNG bouncing off lows)
10:27am
Crude oil is selling off hard, down 5.5% to $61.75. Gold holding up in positive territory. Interesting to see gold trade separately from oil.
10:12am
ES 10m: Held support
10:03am
ES broke below session lows. Next support is the 50% retracement near 917.
~ Update: Has not been broken yet on 10-minute
9:54am
ES 1m: Testing session lows
9:42am
ES 10m: Stronger volume to open the day then we are used to.
9:32am
ES 2h: If this selling is corrective, we wold expect the market to find support at a Fib retracement level. So far, we have retraced 38.2% of the move off the lows.
Good morning.
November 6th, 2008 at 7:54 am
Morning - Looks like the talking heads have turned on a dime. CNBC this am has gone form giddy to gloomy. Unbelieveable how much crap they can pump just to get viewership. I promise you get more unbiased real reliable infomation here on Stocktock that anywhere else in the media (excluding some other noteable blogs). Looks like our prophet Mohan’s preachings are coming true again. I’d advise other readers to heed his posts and take them to heart. The world economy is in deep dodo. I agree with Craig and others that we will zig-zag down to new lows from here. If you have any prophets in any longs you may want to consider taking them here or on any positive rallys.
I’ve got some meetings this AM that will have me out of the office. Hold down the fort and good luck today.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 8:57 am
Prophet Mohan? Man, you have no idea how much I lost till July of this year by putting things on auto-pilot after 10 years of remarkable gains.
Seriously, like most market participants I am more wrong than right. To prove this point, I have exhibits a couple of accounts, which I drove from 6 figures to zero by being extremely aggressive.
What keeps me still in this game is a respectable long-term record over the last 18 years.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 8:17 am
Bank of England agrees, it’s bad, cutting interest rate to 3% …
…from 4,5%! that’s a 1,5% cut at once, I’m not sure if that has ever happened before…
Markets replied with spike up, but died down, avaiting ECP now…
(On other news, German industrial orders down -8% and this does have me worried, it’s at least a bit forward looking data…)
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 8:37 am
Pretty desparate cut. 3x what was expected.
Has interest rate cuts stopped our decline? Er …. nope. Some argue they cause the instability as investors (bonds) can’t rely on a stable yield.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 8:41 am
Ok, didn’t die down quite that easily, Swiss central bank also cut rate ‘by suprice’ by 0,5%…
I was expecting Trichet to go hawkish and cut less than expected but now I’m no longer so sure, 4 minutes to the announcement…
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 8:48 am
Indeed BoE did smell desperate, but I suppose it lifted expectations for large cut by ECB to, ended up being only the expected 0,5%, which didn’t go well…
Looking for that 927 ish to go long again, with stop below 907…
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Here is a good TA radio show Tues and Thursday from 8-9am EST (Ed Handley) He is a master at wave counts and the form of the market. Click on “Listen Live” link:
http://www.dcradio700.com/schedule.html
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 9:13 am
What’s up with these dates lately?
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 9:27 am
…from Goldman Sach on coming Friday Payroll…
We have deepened our forecast of the change in payroll employment for October to -300,000 from -250,000. … The drop in payrolls we are now forecasting would be one of the worst month-over-month declines in the past twenty years. … Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the October decline in payroll employment will be the worst of this cycle. Real activity appears to have contracted sharply in October and … could well bleed into November and cause another large drop in payroll employment …
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/goldman-sachs-expects-one-of-weakest.html
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 9:32 am
I’m very new to this so please correct me. If you draw a fibonacci fan from the top of 5/19/2008 to the bottom of 10/10/2008 on the SPY daily chart. Is the 38.2% retracement, the triangle we are trading within? Its seems to be holding this channel since October 6th.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 9:44 am
Today’s key levels from Gannfann:
Support / Resistance:
986-988 2nd resistance
968-970 1st resistance
938-940 1st support
916-918 2nd support
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 10:48 am
It’s hanging at 950…does that have any relevance here?
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 10:04 am
New trades by Citibank
EURGBP
With one central bank moving ahead of the curve and the other arguably behind, is the
dynamic different?
EURGBP has failed at the top of the range and we expect losses down towards the range
base and 55 week moving average.
A breach of that would argue for significant losses over an extended period.
As a result we sell EURGBP at 0.8031 and target 0.77 with a stop loss at 0.8160
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Does anyone think that now the election is over the PPT loses interest in propping up the markets ? Or, am I just being cynical ? I mean this as a serious question.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 10:42 am
I think you are being cynical. I know there are a lot of crooks in this government, most of them nominated by THIS Republican administration. I don’t believe for a second that they screw things intentionally to hurt people, i.e. they don’t do scorched earth politics. They screw-up because of two reasons: a) utter incompetence and 2) out of a strong conviction towards a trickle-down economic theory that never works.
My personal belief is that Bush administration will be synonymous with incompetence on all fronts. [Yes, this is a political statement.]
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 10:50 am
That said, if I were a part of incoming administration, I would want this thing to be washed out under the current administration’s watch so that I can start with a clean slate.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:40 am
The President’s Working Group on Financials was responsible for the last 2 weeks of baseless bull runs. They now have no incentive to keep the window dressing now that the Bush regime is gone. The market should now behave more rationale, which is down based on fundamentals. This has been my theory and thus far correct….to the day.
Obama made a deal with the devil and this crash will be on his watch….although not his doing.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 10:42 am
I’d say yes.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 10:38 am
one important thing to note: we are now well below the average price paid for equities int the election rally (VWAP). so more than half the trades are underwater and it will be tough to get up as im thinking most of the trades were short term and will want out on any rally today.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 10:55 am
bouncing off Gannfann’s 1st support @940
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:03 am
blew pass it the 2nd try!
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:11 am
looks like its holding
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Looks like we’ll tetst the 2nd support at 920.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:03 am
A little fundamental tidbit. Bear market bottom forward PEs have varied from a low of 5.2 in 1932 to 9.1 in 1949. All other Bear markets this century fall in this range, including the most recent one in 2000-2003. I use a PE of 8 as an average.
Forward earnings (2009) on the SP500 are in the process of being slashed and many project that they will come in at $50-$60. So what is 8 times $55? —> 440 on the S&P.
Have a good day.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Agreed
I’ve pointed to this in the past. The further difficutly is in valuing individual stocks, as each recession treats certain sectors differently (worse than others). Many quality tech companies at the lows in 02′ sold for a fraction of Then Current price to book, and a fraction even of price to sales. A lot of people looking at valautions today believeing they are cheap are early to the game. Many conpmaies have yet to give full year guidance for all of 09′ becuase there is still uncertainty as to how protracted this downturn will be.
I am looking to see how tax laws may change under Obama for investors in high dividend companies, as this will affect the price multiple that these companies receive in the market. In the last recession 00-02′ these companies held up relatively better than their peers. This may turn out to be the opposite this time around.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Test
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:07 am
a tiny inverted H&S forming on 1min SPY?
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:07 am
I guess to be expected after the trouncing yesterday, we will see if they can hold it up
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Nope the buying has dried up in C at least which is the one I use to guage the banks.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:11 am
VIX now above 59 @ 59.73
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:11 am
oil traded most of night on or around $65 … clearly broken now at $62.50… a rally up to $65 may be a good short opp.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Treasuries are giving-up some of the recent gains. That may be the reason why the bottom is not falling out for stocks.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:13 am
What sector is the best to pick up for any rebound that happens off of 917? I have been trading financials on the way down but don’t have the trust in them that they will follow with a potential rally
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:14 am
XLF 1min. looking to breakout of an Ascending Triangle any minute now..
Maybe this will have completed the RS in the 60min 20 day Inverted H&S..
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Ruben,
are you saying we could be going upwards from here
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:17 am
C is breaking out of the bear flag on the 1 min chart
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:18 am
maybe today we will have a big drop which Craig predicted before. Market always gave us surprise.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:19 am
With the very sizable rate cuts in Europe (and no end in sight…) , the USD should continue along on it’s path of strengthening.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:21 am
in the style of Chinese water torture.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:29 am
If we crack this, it will be a straight free fall.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:39 am
If XLF loses $14.54, watch for another leg down
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
$14.54 busted with volume.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:44 am
will anybody long some @915?
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:52 am
Even this “bottom” at 920 didn’t get the Bulls very excited. Maybe they are waiting for 895 (61.8%)
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:53 am
I was thinking about it when it got there, but if a bounce has any legs it will need to retest for me to have any conviction buying into it.
Other problem is when to exit. I would exit at the gap fill from today.
It is hard having conviction though with counter trend moves. If you get the bounce to say 940, you have such an itchy trigger finger that perhaps the risk makes it not worth the trade.
I know my weakness is with counter trend moves, but it is something I am trying to be more disciplined about.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:51 am
looks like some pretty strong support at 930 as well
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
That was one steep slide!
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Craig, i think you meant to write retrace 61.8 to 885.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 11:58 am
another inverted H&S on 1min SPY
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Bearish cross on the SPX daily STO, and MACD and RSI curling over. Also back under the 20dma. Might be hard to launch a C leg.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Europe closes down 5.6-6.8% even after big rate cuts.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
S&P Hit low of 918.47.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
During the great depression, JP Morgan (there was no government agency to do it) purchased shares in the market repeatedly to calm investors and to try to avoid bank runs. It worked for a while, then it became overwhelming. It is likely the government is stepping in to avoid panic again. At some point, markets will have to equalize, but the timing is what is tricky. Your full downside scenario may not play out until the beginning of the year after Obama is in. I think the Fed would try to avoid a full melt down (if possible), during this time of transition. It would be too destablizing.
Responding to Schweizer135, I agree and look at the same measures. Estimates for bottom-up analysis for S&P 500 2009 is $94.25. 2009 estimates for top-down are $48.52. Historical average for all bear markets is 8X. This would give a best case scenario using the bottom up approach of 754 as an equilibrium value - worst casse 388. I believe most of us believe that analysts are shocked and just have not changed their 2009 numbers because they have no clear guidance.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Good post Sophie.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Now we’re back to the pennant pivot. Hmmm….
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Craig,
895 ES Mini I think you meant to put as the 618 retracement on the recent above chart
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Are you guys still holding on to your EEV??
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
I am. I’m going hold this for a while I think.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Yeah i could see it going to 150 by next week. Charts look great.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
bailing on my EEV- looks toppy. I got a nice 25 point move on it.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
S&P just gave up 917 more down volume woudl’nt hurt
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Here we go again
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
a flare
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November 6th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
I have to say this is far steeper then I anticipated. I’ve been riding a very close stop to my SKF to lock in profits in advance of a retracement and everytime I expect a retracement to my number the market nose dives for another point and I have to move up my stop.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Craig:
Do you expect a reversal today, and if so, how high would you expect the bounce ?
Thanks
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Now gunning for 895.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
I’M BACK! Anyone having sum fun? AHHH bear heaven. Looks like I missed some good action. I have to thank Mohan for the EEV trade. I’m only up 15 points in less than 24hrs. Mo - where can I send the Geisha girls to properly thank you?
I must say that listening to bloomburg radio on XM for an extended period of time was a most excellent experience. So much good info and excellent interviews. Good honest reporting. It was a breath of fresh air.
The last interview mage a great case for the refiners going forward. Improving margins as gas prices dip further (notice how prices at the pump are trailing oil?) will make their earnings rosy. They are a good play on any weakness.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
GS printed a 7 handle. Stock looks to be free falling.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
7 Handle?
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
I mean went below 80 into the 70’s. I covered all my shorts. This has gone down too fast to me, seems over extended. SPY 5 day MA is 96.4. GS might retest low of 74 if this day carries through.
GL traders. I just scaled into UYM for a possible reversal. Exit is 5 day MA on SPY, or near the gap fill from today. My stop is if the selling passes the 61.8 Fib resistance.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
too oversold here since yesterday- closing most shorts and going net long - I’m thinking 1 last ditch rally attempt to about 925 and then a free fall going into weekend.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
EEV failing to make a new high on the 5-minute?!
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Bullish cross on the Daily $VIX STO and now back above the 20dma. Hourly MACD just crossed-up through the zero line.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
we all know why this retarded rally started and i never participated in it. the way i participated was too look for the right entry point to short it. so , if we know why the rally happened then we should expect a 100% retracement of it .. .no? it was simply a squeeze out of the weak shorts so that larger players could sell holdings at a higher price. that is my opinion and im expecting 100% retracement+ of this folly rally.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Yup, the volume alone was an easy tip-off.
There likely will be bulls coming in at 895 who are still believers in a fall rally to the 50dma (C leg up on the A-B-C off the lows).
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
ES 1 or 5m has been trading in a well defined channel down for most of the day. If we should confirm a breakout I expect it to be no more than a bull flag. I may take 1/4 position off in SDS and EEV, but not sure it is worth it as any upswing in this market only presents a better shorting opp.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
It is a big mistake to trade EEV or SDS on their own technical. Trade them on overall market strength or weakness.
i.e. if you think market will go down further, stay in EEV and SDS. If you think selling is done or over done, sell EEV and SDS. Simple.
I got-in a day or two early into both, but I am still holding.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Craig’s got me hooked on the ES. What it tells me to do I do it. ES drives all my trading on SDS, SSO and other borad plays. I’ll use ES in conjunction with individual equities for other trades. The point of my earlier statement is there really is no sence in trading out of anything short at this time or anytime in the near future. Profit taking is good and healthy, thus i may take a 1/4 position off just in case and add it back with possibly more on any corrections. We’re headed south dude. This is gonna get ugly. My only fear is that i am not short enough.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Where were you earlier when I was on the fence….sold my C way to early at the 917 touch
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Got out of CHK as soon as pole-pennant formation was voided.
COF is finally cratering, may be on this news
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=awS5vZQvmwd4&refer=exclusive
Since this stock wen against me for so long, wow it is personal.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
will you guys cover short @895 or keep on holding?thanks
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
My QLD shares faked-out at the min point 29.96, that’s so sad.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
I think the SPY 61.8 fib is 90.30 or so, and it’s getting support but few buyers. Hmmm…
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Short funds are so oversold that I closed all of them.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
overbought.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
yeah I sold my EEV for a 23 point move in 24hrs
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
If history is any indicator - short fund from current overbought condition crush really hard. Bought SDS puts.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
3x Funds:
I cannot belive this, that they have 3x funds. I thought the max was 2x funds like SSO, SDS, etc.
Direxion Bull Funds
• Large Cap Bull 3x (BGU) Russell 1000 Index 300%
• Small Cap Bull 3x (TNA) Russell 2000 Index 300%
• Russell 1000® Energy (ERX) Energy Bull 3x Shares Index 300%
• Financial Bull 3x Russell 1000 Financial Services Index (FAS) 300%
Direxion Bear Funds
• Large Cap Bear 3x (BGZ) Russell 1000 Index -300%
• Small Cap Bear 3x (TZA) Russell 2000 Index -300%
• Russell 1000 Energy (ERY) Energy Bear 3x Shares Index -300%
• Financial Bear 3x Russell 1000 Financial Services Index (FAZ) -300%
Use them carefully….highly leveraged. Good luck all.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
25k requirement…not fair for the small investor who doesn’t know better
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Did not think these were functional yet. Are they up and running? I’ll give them a shot.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
ya, they are working. I just checked quotes on TNA, TZA.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
Wow, and no 25k margin requirements either. Scary.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
I tried BGU earlier on this small run up and just sold for a small profit.
Not liquid, huge spreads.
Tracks 3X RUI Russell 1000.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Gold might be worth a look here. It’s holding it’s own despite a surging dollar. DGP gives you 2x long exposure.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Mohan - Jobs number comes out tomorrow and I’m hearing expextations of numbers like -200k est vs. -243 actual. Do you think this is being cooked in today? If the large disparity does come thru, I’m thinking we fall even harder tomorrow.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Craig - your trendline post at 1:51 is actually a channel. Will you add the lower trendling to that? This will clue to the breakout below as well as the top. I’m thinking we break lower.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
OOPS - we just broke it to the top. Here come the bulls.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Maybe bulls gonna put up a fight to hold ground at 900 ES.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Out of SDS w/20%.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
EEV bye bye. 101.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
I don’t think so. I won’t be surprised if it closes in the range 110-120
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
thanks, but i’m 100% out. can’t help but see the retracement up to 1050…just a gut call though.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
anyone trade QLD & QID etf’s
Looks QLD maybe a good entry point now. Other thoughts/ideas welcomed.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
Wait to see if 30.52 holds on the Q’s.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
I would not even think of touching QLD at this point unless you are looking really short term - like 30 minutes. Rally at this time is highly improbable. I think the bears got this market by the bulls. LOL
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Would say QID be a good play now if QLD is going down further. They are inverse of each other ideally.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Should not have done it, but took 1/2 profits on SDS and EEV. 13% in 24hrs. Not gonna get too greedy. Looking for next entry point. Jobs and manu numbers tomorrow are gonna be really bad. I want to be back in for that. I think the knife is gonna fall tomorrow.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
I think the bulls will hold the 61.8 fib and drive it up to at least 950 (50% of rhe 2-day drop), although they appear to be rather W E A K !!
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
That could be a good call. We are oversold and due. I’m looking for my next short entry which will be today.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Hourlies are now saying oversold, so I’ll wait.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
craig do you mean 895?
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Yea, I keep messing that number up! My bad.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Believe it or not I found an obscure trendline that SDS hit in conjunction with the breakout of the ES. I’ll keep an eye on it and let you know if it remains significant.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Re. Jobs number:
I don’t know how bad it will be. Based on post #5 by Hulu, the rate could be 6.5% vs. Expected 6.3%. (I am reposting it here):
We have deepened our forecast of the change in payroll employment for October to -300,000 from -250,000. … The drop in payrolls we are now forecasting would be one of the worst month-over-month declines in the past twenty years. … Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the October decline in payroll employment will be the worst of this cycle. Real activity appears to have contracted sharply in October and … could well bleed into November and cause another large drop in payroll employment
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/goldman-sachs-expects-one-of-weakest.html
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Pitchforks are cool. Interested to see if we stay in blue or red. Pretty cool how they are tracking. They got the turn at 900 perfect. I’d like to see some updates on these over the next day or two if possible.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Red and Blue pitch-forks. Perfect analogy for the clowns in Washington who are killing us.
[Reply]
November 6th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
HA!
Hey Mo - I think we’re setting up for the perfect storm tomorrow. GM is gonna get abused at 4:00 today when they announce. This could set the panic selling in motion combined with jobs and manu numbers. thismay be the beginning of the back eye wall of the hurricane.
That move up was predictable that just happened. Feeling better about profit taking on the SDS now. Will be back in full force before the close - any thoughts?
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