|
07
Nov
|
4:05pm
SPY 60m: Inverse head and shoulders forming?
4:00pm
ES 10m: Strong volume buying into the close
3:39pm
ES 1m: Bulls trying to retake the VWAP with a double bottom pattern.
3:26pm
ES 10m/1m: Big volume on the Obama drop. Trading under the VWAP.
2:54pm
Obama speaking. Market not impressed.
2:34pm
Back up, just in time for the show. Oddly, I missed nothing.
ES 1m: According to the ‘Rule of Four’, this may break to the upside.
1:06pm
ES 5m: Inverse head and shoulders? A bit sloppy but possible. Lot’s of possibilities could play out this afternoon. React to the market, don’t guess.
1:01pm
VIX moving down to session lows at 56.32
12:50pm
Unconfirmed report: AIG talks with the US Gov’t reportedly include discussion of the rate of Federal Loan, length of time, and potential Federal backstop.
12:45pm
Excuse my opinion here, but we are finally hearing some rationality out of Washington.
US Treasury’s Kashkari: No better solution seen besides mark to market accounting, even in light of recent criticism.
Bearish comments out of the Fed’s Lockhart: Signs of improving credit markets may be a “false dawn”. Problems will surely get worse.
12:45pm
ES 10m, 1m: Notice how the volume has dried up this afternoon, perhaps waiting for Obama’s press conference at 2:30. Regarding the head and shoulders pattern, we bounced off the neckline on the first attempt. This is an important trendline to watch. In my opinion, the market is short-term bullish until the neckline is broken.
12:32pm
ES 1m: Nearing the neckline. No coincidence this level coincides with the VWAP.
12:07pm
Tommy A just pointed out a potential H&S pattern on the ES. You can view it on Social.
ES 1m: This would setup a large drop if it plays out.
11:42am
ES 10m: Holding the 20MA for now. Perhaps we form an M pattern?
11:30am
September Pending Home Sales: -4.6% v -3.4%e
11:22am
ES 10m/1m: Testing 20MA and VWAP
11:18am
GM reports Q3 -$4.45 v -$3.70e, Revenue $37.9B v $39.4Be
BREAKING NEWS
NBER’s Hall: Data on US recession evidence is now “conclusive”.
~ Shocker! Wouldn’t be surprised if this is a giant contrarian indicator.
10:52am
ES 10m: Trying to hold above the 200MA.
10:42am
GM delaying earnings results. Expects release shortly.
10:05am
ES 1m: Inverse H&S. Remember, inverse head and shoulders patterns are prone to failure if they do not break the neckline on strong volume. Price target about $930.
9:19am
ES 1m: Pushing up gently into the VWAP. Just shorted with a stop above the VWAP.
9:11am
Some traders are speaking about a massive selloff and capitulation as if its a certainty. Be careful and stay open minded. This market is very vulnerable, but certainly capable of holding up. Don’t underestimate how much bad news is already priced in. It will take an unforeseen catalyst to panic this market. $895 is an important level on the ES. If we break below the 61.8% retracement, it would be hard to call this selloff corrective. However, we remain above that level, and the potential for a rally exists. I’m not bullish… I’m just watching.
SPX 60m: Check out this potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. The pattern is not complete, but it’s something I’m watching.
8:56am
ES 10m: Falls into negative territory
8:51am
Goldman Sachs sees real Q4 GDP at -3.5% and at -2.0% in Q1 2009. See unemployment rate at 8.5% by end 2009. Sees another 50bps Fed interest rate cut by end 2008.
8:33am
Markets holding up impressively after the data. Could be a “sell the rumor, but the news” situation. S&P E-Mini Futures (ES) off their highs but still in positive territory, up 3.50 to 908.
8:30am
Oct change in nonfarm payrolls: -240K v -200Ke (Sept revised from -159K to -248K)
Oct unemployment rate: 6.5% v 6.3%e
8:25am
President Elect Obama will not make personnel announcements during today’s press conference
All eyes will be on the jobs report at 8:30am. The consensus estimate calls for a loss of 200,000 jobs, though some economists are looking for as many as 250,000 jobs lost.
The unemployment rate is expected to come in at 6.3%.
Check out the Intraday Commentary Guide for answers to frequently asked questions and general tips and guidelines on how to use this daily forum.
Anybody notice how Obama didn’t look as comfortable as he normally does giving that briefing?
No more rehearsals, this is the real deal. No more speeches about hope.
November 7th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
After getting all those secret presidential briefings his mind is probably going in 20 different directions right now.
Just think about all the things hes learned in the past couple days. He just got a list of the governments dirty laundry and evil plots.
Very true..He’s great speaking off a teleprompter. He struggles otherwise.
Look at GS and C. They are both close to 52 wk lows. This could get ugly if they both break.
Notice the Double Top on the SPY 1-Minute Chart.
someone just sold some SPY at 53.15 messed up with chart
Someone got filled at 53.15 on SPY. Has to be a misprint. Too liquid for a no bid situation.
that price is not registered on stockcharts.com, maybe corrected it.
bullish divergence on 1-min indices
For those with Thinkorswim this may interest you:
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/thinkorswim-excel-dde
November 7th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
I LOVE YOU!
Beautiful downward channel is being formed on the 1m. From the recent top pre speech. 905 is the next downside target if the channel holds. a break above 922 invalidates it.
I have never seen so many tops on the 1m. Looks like the Yard Rake formation. LOL I made that one up.
I am still short the market… Still holding EEV. Wanting to reduce exposure to Nov puts before close.
I got my shorts back on the block.
November 7th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Im out of shorts.
November 7th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Good idea. Being in shorts in this crazy market will make you loose shirts.
GOOG trading down because CEO will be on Cramer tonight.
WTF? someone else is using my name or there are two mavs. There must be some authentication.
November 7th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
It’s Dan. He is very mature.
November 7th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Also I don’t use divergences for directions. And especially on a 3 min chart, gimme a break.
I told you earlier there would be a surge into the afternoon. This market is still not in trend mode, one way or another. If anything, there is a slight upward bias going into monday, which should be another interesting day. I never took a position today. There is a lot of whipsaw and churn.
November 7th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Hey Dan, easy mate. I just called what I saw in the morning. I am not short or long this market as yet. I hold gold shorts and NKE puts/AFAM longs. But these are swing trades. Take care have a good weekend.
November 7th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
mav, just curious. Is your long bias based strictly on your use of technical indicators, or can you actually see this as a place to take a long position based on the fundamentals? I have no allegiance to either side, and am consequently flexible toward either, BUT, at this point, based on fundamentals, I just cannot see anyone feeling secure (unless one has a horizon of 10, 15, 20 years) going long. What is your explanation for the heavy volume buying at the end of today for example (and other similar heavy, seemingly limitless infusion of capital that we had been seeing leading up to the election, whenever there was strong selling pressure)? Obviously the huge flurry is not just retail. Is Big Money getting in, in your assessment, for any reason other than for relatively short-term trading on technicals alone? Would you actually feel safe buying for the long-term at this stage?
November 7th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
My horizon is days to one week maximum. I do have swing trades which are of much larger duration from a month ago – one is UNG:USO and NKE puts (from 58) and AFM long (48).
My call in the morning for a period of churn and then a late surge was strictly based on technicals and on astro charts (these unfortunately I cannot reveal).
I never to rationalize price moves. I don’t know the reason for the limitless infusion of capital. All I know is it came in last week. I cannot speculate who is buying or what is buying. Trading needs to be about being mechanical.
There were lots of my astro indicators, pointing to a mixed to slightly bullish day.
As for pure technical indicators and my long bias, I don’t want to short a market which has fallen for 2 days and still has its 20d which turned up or facing upwards. This is not a percentage trade. You will not get any traction on your shorts.
For monday, lets wait for confirmation or resumption of the down/up move, I will jump in then. I will let you know if my proprietary indicators indicate a trend. They are still in a period of churn, with a slight bullish bias. Also SSRI is setting up nicely. Monday or tuesday could be the blast in SSRI.
November 7th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
I meant AFAM long, not AFM
November 7th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Thanks for the thorough reply, mav.
F net change 0. rare event.
4mn shares of WFC still being auctioned.
On Fridays I am occupied and don’t get to pay enough attention to the market. Proved to be costly today as I was on phone a lot.
Poor risk management on my part… May be I should become a day trader… sigh…
In Shanky’s terms, that green worm appeared again. Looks like last minute short covering.
I did a cursory catchup of the day’s events. I am not at all impressed with the rally. Based on a number of stocks I follow, I think real selling is masked by run-up in indices…
November 7th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
EXACTLY! The stocks I follow barely moved on the “rally”. spy is a lot tougher to trade than the broken stocks which behave quite nicely (for shorts).
November 7th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
My initial read is that market is up today mostly on short-covering – there were two bouts of short-covering: one at the open and one at close.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
We did see a big drop when Obama was speaking.. may be the rally was to pose a good picture for him.. U know usually when Bush speaks publically.. market falls..
hey craig..wouldnt you consider the right shoulder forming to be a major bear flag? thats how i see it. please reply. thanks. gluck to you.
November 7th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
It definitely could be. I’m still not sure on the wave structure.
Today’s rally could have been the beginning of wave C up of 3(4).
Or it could have been wave 2 up of wave 5 of 3(3).
And some have it labeled as wave 2 up of 3(5).
Wish things were more clear.
November 7th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Scary…
I was about to post the same… Since two of us agree, it probably will go up.
GS didn’t participate in the rally. It actually closed at a 52 week low.
November 7th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
On a lighter note, GS has been trading with oil. Even the astro charts on them both are similar.
Craig, if the huge inverse H&S were to come to fruition, would you know what the approximate SPX equivalent of the SPY neckline would be? Does about ~1,012 sound reasonable? And, even if it were to happen, all 3 EW scenarios would still remain valid, would that be correct? TIA.
HUI up 4.2% while GDX down 0.6%. what’s going on?