02
Dec
In this video we look at the S&P and SPY charts and try to make sense of what happend today. We continue to believe that the overall trend is more bearish than bullish however we will have to see what the market does tomorrow to confirm our bearishness. Another upward trending day of consolidation could be in the books, however a downward trending day on light volume may suggest a shift in market sentiment. We continue to look at the 50% and 61.8% fibonacci retracements as potential targets for this rally. Finally we talk about how we traded this market intraday, and made 2 good trades out of 3.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 12:13 am
any big rally should be shorted overnight…. especially at end of month like last month. if you were not short there you missed out on the huge gap down on the 1st. im 100% short and holding overnight…..especially bearish on oil. oil is a better indicator on where the economy is headed. when in doubt trade the macro trend. you will be right more times than wrong and if you put the same money on the line each trade and are right more times than wrong you are making the right trades.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 3:07 am
I have noticed that; futures in stock market down, BUT oil is up .. .usually means there is a rally in that days stock market… lets see right now. 3:07 p.m. EST. Oil futures up $.74 cents and futures down - 50…
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December 3rd, 2008 at 4:53 am
Itchski, you are replying at 3 am?
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December 3rd, 2008 at 4:54 am
The oil futures are supposed to be a correction from yesterday’s low.
Now,, the oil futures are only up .39 & the futures are down -120
Take into account that U.S. stocks data, to be released at 10:35 EST, are expected to show a 1.7 million-barrel rise in crude inventories for the week ended November 28, the third consecutive week of increases, according to a Reuters poll. So that news might bring oil even further down.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 7:24 am
Good vid Idan. Always insightful. Thanks. Tuesday was a very whippy day alright. It is funny how one’s bias comes out when they look at charts. We tend to see what we want to see, such as H&S patterns that match our bias. I try to look at things both ways and weight the odds each way. We start out Wednesday above the 20 and 50 mas on the 10m SPX (835), MACD above zero and climbing, and price above 840 support, so don’t be shocked if we hold or climb from here.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 9:07 am
Schweizer135, it is good to have you around. U help me not be a permabear although I really want to, at least with you here I have to consider the other side.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:03 am
this ma patern hasnt played out might b good sign
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:08 am
Companies with severely deteriorating credit: CMC, HOT, FCX (I wish FCX waited one more day to cut dividend and issue warning). I bought puts on all three of them this morning. CMC Dec 7.5; HOT Dec 12.5; and FCX Dec 15.
Targets for the three - retest of the lows for CMC and HOT (6.25 and 11, or even sub 10, for HOT)
FCX Target $9 in two weeks.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:16 am
market shrugging off bad news agian…can we rally from here?
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 am
Guys,
For a variety of reasons, which include the quadruple witching options expiration ahead of us, I see the next 3 weeks as the major battle between the bears and bulls. Bears are armed with reality and fundamentals, and some loot amassed from the last 15 months. Bulls have more freshly minted money thrown at the big banks by the Feds.
It is difficult to tell who will win this major battle, but I am betting heavily on the bear side. If bulls win, the bears will come back in 2009. If bears win, the war will essentially be over.
I do think that the new bull will be born only after bears prevail and win this war. However, I suspect there will be a lot of casualties on both sides.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:22 am
you are right mohan only time will tell…im slightly bullish just because the dow should b below 8000 and its not
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 am
i am waiting in anticipation. could really go either way.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:36 am
After reading a lot of stuff last night, I am sticking with my November 9th call: Sell Every Rally Till January.
http://www.stocktock.com/2008/11/09/sell-every-rally-till-january/
A major unknown, of course, is how much of the relentless printing by the feds going to re-inflate the stocks. I simply don’t want to gamble on this possibility.
NASDAQ just turned green, DOW and S&P at the best levels of the day - reversing earlier losses. I would sell this rally too.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:39 am
Sorry - I am not backing that with any observations on charts… It is pure fundamental analysis and what I consider are credible sentiment indicators.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:41 am
One more educational post:
Regarding the news about rise in mortgage applications last week, Mr. Mortgage has this to say:
The number that comes out tomorrow will be mostly wrong. Not ’somewhat’ or ’slightly’ but ‘mostly’ wrong. While lenders did get a surge of business that is new to them most is not new business. When rates come slamming down in a very short period of time like we saw last Tuesday very little new business is originated that day. My best guess is that of all the loan applications being counted last week that 85% of them were a result of a loan that was pulled from another lender for a better rate elsewhere.
Read the full stuff here.
http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/
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December 3rd, 2008 at 10:50 am
nasdaq good leading indicator this morn.
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December 3rd, 2008 at 11:04 am
low interest rates cheap gas dow above 8400 obama going to speak…SSO
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