Comments on: Bear Cross on a Major Index?

By: Unersaettlich

Unersaettlich — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 13:47:52 +0000

Nothing compels anyone to sell on a bad day. I can wait. Many StockTockers hyperactively trade too many securities far too often. The objective seems to be pursuing trading as a hobby rather than making money. Commissions are a major expense. I trade at most about ten times a month, and only follow a few ETFs and indices. Trading individual stocks means doing a lot of DD and worrying about exposure of single companies to exogenous unpredictable events. None of that applies to indices and sectors.

I just make sure to buy at what is most likely a good price. I have the patience to wait until I can sell at a good price, trading decent swings along the way, but I am also not too proud to dump a position if the buy price turns out to have been a longer-term mistake. If a peak turns out not to be a peak, I will chase (I sold at 4.62 and reloaded at 4.65 less than 24 hours later, then held until selling out at 5.18). FAZ/FAS and URE/SRS move by larger percentages than other securities, so they are my most frequent vehicles. All else is mostly noise.

By: 3min

3min — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 05:07:17 +0000

I heard your aunt does.

By: JamesBrrando

JamesBrrando — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 02:49:19 +0000

if my aunt had a penis, she’d be my uncle.

By: 3min

3min — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 02:36:32 +0000

Sounds good but I wonder what would have happened if the jobs report was the opposite.

By: Unersaettlich

Unersaettlich — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 00:59:10 +0000

I just buy FAZ when it lances an hourly chart’s lower Bollinger Band and RSI(14) is around 30 or preferably 20, and hooking under. I sell it when it spikes the upper BB and RSI(14) is >70 or preferably >80, which happened today.

http://i39.tinypic.com/k9bbic.png

I also look at a similar chart of the financials. They have a lot of support near current levels.

It works pretty well so far.

By: JamesBrrando

JamesBrrando — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 00:11:36 +0000

FAS in at 7.50 (when this sell signal peeters out)
out at 15.00 after 2q bank earnings catalyst.
15$ aug calls are 0.08 cents!

By: 3min

3min — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 23:56:51 +0000

Faz was a good trade – congrats…..but was intirely due to sentiment and jobs report coming where they did….otherwise, it would be at $4.00 right now. That is too much of a gamble to win in the long run. May as well play craps.

FAZ must be the worse bet in the world right now in my opinion. The financials will be the July bullish catalyst….albiet some sell on the news because profit will be huge but projections will be horrible.

By: Unersaettlich

Unersaettlich — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 23:38:48 +0000

I sold out of FAZ after hours and now am likewise all cash. FAZ had risen to 5.22 and was heading back down. It continued dropping after I sold, and now is back to 5.15, almost back to 5.13 where it closed. Sometimes the thing to do is take the money and run. I left some money on the table here and there, but have swing-traded FAZ for a 40% gain net of commissions in less than a month.

By: JamesBrrando

JamesBrrando — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 23:36:15 +0000

we will see

By: 3min

3min — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 23:13:09 +0000

I decided to stay in cash over the holiday and pile in long after we get oversold. Any equities did not get crushed today and showed excellent strength in market weakness.

If you all stay short at 880ish, I think you will lose a huge bounce.

This sell off was caused by the bulls, not the bears.