Comments on: Confessions of an After-Hours Coward http://www.stocktock.com/2009/07/03/confessions-of-an-after-hours-coward/ A Resource For Traders Thu, 11 Mar 2010 04:10:45 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Richard (goingcrazyagain-pb) http://www.stocktock.com/2009/07/03/confessions-of-an-after-hours-coward/comment-page-1/#comment-74894 Richard (goingcrazyagain-pb) Mon, 06 Jul 2009 02:08:08 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/2009/07/03/confessions-of-an-after-hours-coward/#comment-74894 GBT , im thinking the FAZ water is warm and there will plenty of wiggles and squiggles along the road lower. holding it through this OPEX and beyond is probably a good play. im looking for a move above the upper BB on my daily chart GBT , im thinking the FAZ water is warm and there will plenty of wiggles and squiggles along the road lower. holding it through this OPEX and beyond is probably a good play. im looking for a move above the upper BB on my daily chart

]]> By: GBT http://www.stocktock.com/2009/07/03/confessions-of-an-after-hours-coward/comment-page-1/#comment-74892 GBT Mon, 06 Jul 2009 00:30:56 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/2009/07/03/confessions-of-an-after-hours-coward/#comment-74892 Uggh. It never gets any easier does it? Well I may be crazy but I'm holding onto FAZ. First though I want to thank Uners for these terrific charts. First rate work my main man. First rate. There's just too many damn conflicting signals. Yes, the charts say with all the sup lines we should get a bounce. That's logical. BUT, the elliot waves say we could be starting wave 3, and if that's true, then we are going to cut through those res lines like shit through a goose. So I guess I'm [placing my bet that this is wave 3. A prudent course of action might be to take half my position off on Mon morning. But I'm not known for prudence. This is not trading advice. Do your own research and make your own decision. I take no responsibility for any trade or investment decision you make. Uggh. It never gets any easier does it? Well I may be crazy but I’m holding onto FAZ.

First though I want to thank Uners for these terrific charts. First rate work my main man. First rate.

There’s just too many damn conflicting signals. Yes, the charts say with all the sup lines we should get a bounce. That’s logical. BUT, the elliot waves say we could be starting wave 3, and if that’s true, then we are going to cut through those res lines like shit through a goose. So I guess I’m [placing my bet that this is wave 3.

A prudent course of action might be to take half my position off on Mon morning. But I’m not known for prudence.

This is not trading advice. Do your own research and make your own decision. I take no responsibility for any trade or investment decision you make.

]]> By: Phoevos http://www.stocktock.com/2009/07/03/confessions-of-an-after-hours-coward/comment-page-1/#comment-74890 Phoevos Mon, 06 Jul 2009 00:18:15 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/2009/07/03/confessions-of-an-after-hours-coward/#comment-74890 http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN0518022220090705?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=11569 http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN0518022220090705?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=11569

]]> By: Shah http://www.stocktock.com/2009/07/03/confessions-of-an-after-hours-coward/comment-page-1/#comment-74887 Shah Sun, 05 Jul 2009 15:42:25 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/2009/07/03/confessions-of-an-after-hours-coward/#comment-74887 I'm out of FAZ until after the 10-1 reverse split this week..... I’m out of FAZ until after the 10-1 reverse split this week…..

]]> By: Unersaettlich http://www.stocktock.com/2009/07/03/confessions-of-an-after-hours-coward/comment-page-1/#comment-74874 Unersaettlich Sat, 04 Jul 2009 14:03:07 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/2009/07/03/confessions-of-an-after-hours-coward/#comment-74874 Amazingly, CNBS actually put a link to a bear's thoughts on that page: http://www.cnbc.com/id/30192550 Amazingly, CNBS actually put a link to a bear’s thoughts on that page:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30192550

]]> By: Unersaettlich http://www.stocktock.com/2009/07/03/confessions-of-an-after-hours-coward/comment-page-1/#comment-74871 Unersaettlich Sat, 04 Jul 2009 13:40:58 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/2009/07/03/confessions-of-an-after-hours-coward/#comment-74871 I trade FAZ based on HOURLY charts. Look at the FAZ 60-min chart at bottom above and compare Friday's action with so many other closes after nice pops, especially those that abused the upper 60-min BB and drove the 60-min RSI(14) above 70 or even near it. All those red dotted lines on that chart mark places where the best move in 90-95% of such situations was to sell into an after-hours top or a continuing rise in pre-market the next trading day, so based on this empirical evidence, the odds were about 10 or 20 to 1 that selling the resisted after-hours peak in FAZ (top chart above) was the right move, or at least a very good move. I'm a tournament bridge player who also taught grad courses in application of statistics and probability to financial situations. Therefore I know that determining the action that the odds strongly favor may not win the max with every single hand or business decision, but it's what you do to win the game. One reason I prefer trading stocks to playing cards, especially poker, is that everybody wins who has even a decent hand, and plays it even halfway right. Second best is a poker player's nightmare, but it pays off big with stocks. Also, a trader who has backed what is turning out to be a loser can usually drag most of the bankroll back out of the pot before the mice get at it. I trade FAZ based on HOURLY charts. Look at the FAZ 60-min chart at bottom above and compare Friday’s action with so many other closes after nice pops, especially those that abused the upper 60-min BB and drove the 60-min RSI(14) above 70 or even near it. All those red dotted lines on that chart mark places where the best move in 90-95% of such situations was to sell into an after-hours top or a continuing rise in pre-market the next trading day, so based on this empirical evidence, the odds were about 10 or 20 to 1 that selling the resisted after-hours peak in FAZ (top chart above) was the right move, or at least a very good move. I’m a tournament bridge player who also taught grad courses in application of statistics and probability to financial situations. Therefore I know that determining the action that the odds strongly favor may not win the max with every single hand or business decision, but it’s what you do to win the game.

One reason I prefer trading stocks to playing cards, especially poker, is that everybody wins who has even a decent hand, and plays it even halfway right. Second best is a poker player’s nightmare, but it pays off big with stocks. Also, a trader who has backed what is turning out to be a loser can usually drag most of the bankroll back out of the pot before the mice get at it.

]]> By: Richard (goingcrazyagain-pb) http://www.stocktock.com/2009/07/03/confessions-of-an-after-hours-coward/comment-page-1/#comment-74867 Richard (goingcrazyagain-pb) Sat, 04 Jul 2009 05:34:18 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/2009/07/03/confessions-of-an-after-hours-coward/#comment-74867 UNERS, im much more conservative with targets and i said id bail on FAZ above $5 but the target for me is the UPPER BB in $5.40 range. of course it may not make it there but if hit 880 on the SPX as my chart in photos suggests im hoping FAZ will see at least $5.40. you have a great record in trading FAZ and you should not fret over missing the top or the bottom. the key is making more profitable trades and knowing when to limit losses. hope you had a fun holiday. it must be a somewhat somber independence day for many Americans as it seems, looking from the outside, freedoms are being stripped everyday. THIS IS THE MOST BIZARRE THING IVE READ SINCE THE CRISIS WAS RECOGNIZED BY THE MEDIA: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31685244/site/14081545 ... the reason i say the crisis "was recognized" and not "begun" is because it is hard to pinpoint the beginning of the end of the life we once knew. if i gave you $10 and then you offered that $10 as collateral to me for a $12.50 loan to get a pretty flowery shirt.... i'd tell you to suck yourself and find yourself a $10 shirt! these ideas have went from bad to worse to ludicrous. best of all these loans must be financed by the ever solvent Freddie and Fannie. aka bottomless pits. UNERS, im much more conservative with targets and i said id bail on FAZ above $5 but the target for me is the UPPER BB in $5.40 range. of course it may not make it there but if hit 880 on the SPX as my chart in photos suggests im hoping FAZ will see at least $5.40.

you have a great record in trading FAZ and you should not fret over missing the top or the bottom. the key is making more profitable trades and knowing when to limit losses.

hope you had a fun holiday. it must be a somewhat somber independence day for many Americans as it seems, looking from the outside, freedoms are being stripped everyday.

THIS IS THE MOST BIZARRE THING IVE READ SINCE THE CRISIS WAS RECOGNIZED BY THE MEDIA: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31685244/site/14081545 … the reason i say the crisis “was recognized” and not “begun” is because it is hard to pinpoint the beginning of the end of the life we once knew. if i gave you $10 and then you offered that $10 as collateral to me for a $12.50 loan to get a pretty flowery shirt…. i’d tell you to suck yourself and find yourself a $10 shirt! these ideas have went from bad to worse to ludicrous. best of all these loans must be financed by the ever solvent Freddie and Fannie. aka bottomless pits.

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