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03
Jul
Video Update ~ (3 VIDEOS) The H&S Motif
By: Idan In: Trading Blog, Videos

Hey guys,
I have compiled a 3 part long video that not only talks about the SPY to its full extent but also about 8 different charts and how we’re suppose to read into this type of market. This includes XLF, GS, VXX, SKF, AAPL, AMZN and the USO. 

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(more videos below)
 

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The views, opinions and analysis expressed in this post are strictly those of the author.
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26 Responses to “Video Update ~ (3 VIDEOS) The H&S Motif”

  1. highbury says:
    July 3, 2009 at 3:56 pm

    excellent analysis lda~ i wonder what online broker you use for online trading? i’m using scottrade but i’m thinking to switch to a lower fee broker. thanks again for the update. happy 4th.

    Idan replied:
    July 3rd, 2009 at 6:48 pm

    I use etrade for options and stock executions and td amertirade for charting

  2. FLguy says:
    July 3, 2009 at 4:25 pm

    Well done, as always.
    My view is the USO trade has the best potential gain on puts, but the highest risk. My kinda action! :) I won’t be a big fan of shorting many tech stocks until the big dive from higher highs, but AAPL trades so well off traditional TA (usually) that it is an exception. Normally I’ll sell the financials on pops, and buy tech on drops, and mix in some VIX for good measure.
    Anyhow, thanks and enjoy your golfing days. Too bloody hot down here in Miami. Where are you?

    Idan replied:
    July 3rd, 2009 at 6:48 pm

    I’m in silicon valley.. and boy is it hot here too..

    Richard (goingcrazyagain-pb) replied:
    July 4th, 2009 at 1:52 am

    im in Canada and its stinking hot. reminds me of the 2003 fire year. tanking stock markets, drought,,, hmmmmmmmmmmmm. tooo freaky

    Alex replied:
    July 4th, 2009 at 10:52 am

    Too hot? Try a drive down Highway 1 to the Monterey Peninsula…Carmel, 17-Mile Drive (Pebble Beach) and Point Reyes National Seashore. Well worth your time!

  3. "I Hate Market Manipulators" says:
    July 3, 2009 at 5:43 pm

    Idan, great analysis as always, well done!

    Any thoughts on UNG? Thanks in advance.

    Idan replied:
    July 3rd, 2009 at 5:54 pm

    UNG already seems broken to me as it broke the 13.30 bottom level.. we might get a retrace to that level as resistance.. at that point I think it might be worth shorting..

    "I Hate Market Manipulators" replied:
    July 3rd, 2009 at 6:01 pm

    Thank you.

    Unersaettlich replied:
    July 3rd, 2009 at 11:12 pm

    I just compared ERY, the 3x energy stock bear ETF, to FAZ. ERY has started outperforming FAZ when both are rising. For instance, from 11 to 23 June, ERY rose from 16.06 to 24.81 (+54.5%), while FAZ’s rise was from 4.25 to 5.50 (+29.41%). Amazingly, ERY, while climbing faster, did not also fall faster, as one might expect. From 24.81, ERY dipped to 21.09 (-15.0%), but FAZ plunged from 5.50 to 4.52 (-17.8%). Another time, ERY was flat (21.21 to 21.20) while FAZ fell by -12.3% from 5.37 to 4.71. So instead of shorting such as UNG or USO, why not try ERY?

    Horizons Betapro on the TSX has double short ETFs based on the commodities instead of sector indices of stocks.

    HND.TO Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Bear Plus ETF
    HOD.TO Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bear Plus ETF

    (The bullish counterparts are HNU.TO and HOU.TO.)

    Richard (goingcrazyagain-pb) replied:
    July 4th, 2009 at 1:55 am

    im playing it this way on NG… HNU.TO – but for now i’ll sit on the sidelines and wait for indicators to say go long as it is in the process of making new lows.

    Unersaettlich replied:
    July 4th, 2009 at 9:52 am

    Yeah, that ERY chart also doesn’t look buyable right now, ERX would be the better buy, but the price could get better — the 60-min RSI and MACD need to look more bottomish, and the lower 60-min Bollinger Band needs to be violated:

    http://i39.tinypic.com/2iiwpw7.png

    Unersaettlich replied:
    July 4th, 2009 at 9:58 am

    The hourly chart of HNU.TO looks pretty bottomish after the benefit of the extra trading day on TSX, but before jumping in, it might be good to inspect very similar patterns on June 22. That’s why this chart has EMA(9), which usually must change from resistance to support for a decent rise to be under way:

    http://i42.tinypic.com/288tuo1.png

  4. Shiva says:
    July 3, 2009 at 7:10 pm

    Hi Idan,
    Thanks so much for your analysis. I was going over the training videos for TA that you put up in April and they were great. I was wondering if you will have a continuing series with more advanced features.

    Thanks in Advance

  5. ACLJ says:
    July 3, 2009 at 8:45 pm

    Idan,
    Great call on AMZN. Thanks for the videos. Have a great 4th.

  6. PJ says:
    July 4, 2009 at 7:42 am

    Hey Idan,

    Thanks for the extra long video, great analysis. Do you have any thoughts on which would be a better trade SKF or SDS? I know the financials lead the market, but we know they will keep getting bailed out, where as the government can’t bail out the whole S&P500. Both charts look good and are at or near there 50 MA

    Thanks Idan,

    Unersaettlich replied:
    July 4th, 2009 at 10:37 am

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SKF:SDS

    This free chart of the ratio of SKF to SDS shows that SKF moves faster in both directions than SDS, so if stocks rise, SKF is the one to own if limited to that pair. If stocks fall, it is best to own neither of them.

    Unersaettlich replied:
    July 4th, 2009 at 10:38 am

    Of course, a number of 3x bear ETFs (as well as 2x SRS) move faster than either SKF or SDS:

    http://stockcharts.com/symsearch/?3x

    Idan replied:
    July 4th, 2009 at 3:10 pm

    Well,

    The bailouts will come only later once the stock market is sort of in a free fall….. but until then i feel like the SKF will outeperform the SDS quite signficanty. The S&P has some of the strong tech, the SKF doesn’t.

    PJ replied:
    July 4th, 2009 at 3:52 pm

    Thanks Idan, the techs are something I didn’t consider.

  7. JH says:
    July 4, 2009 at 2:35 pm

    Idan,

    Thanks for the great videos. I was wondering what your thoughts are on the SRS? I read Unersaetthlich’s analysis (great job) and it looks pretty bearish for the IYR, You think its better to play the trade through long IYR puts or going long SRS etf. Thanks.

    Idan replied:
    July 4th, 2009 at 3:11 pm

    I own a small position in SRS myself… but both sound great.. as long as you take profits on your put IYR options every time we hit some strong support, and then pile them back in on strong resistance.

  8. Richard (goingcrazyagain-pb) says:
    July 4, 2009 at 9:37 pm

    ———- IDAN ———- after much thought about the markets and swining into OPEX and how many HS patterns play out. this scenario to screw everyone up is very likely. especially since the HS pattern is VERY OBVIOUS to all. the market loves obvious price patterns.

    1. fake out below the neckline and hang out below for a bit — 2 days down — 2 days hold
    2. re capture the neckline and close above it toward your red line for close of OPEX 7/17
    3. break below the neckline following 7/17 and complete the HS target of around 850

    here is a great chart of a HS fake out – head test – nasty breakdown:
    http://social.stocktock.com/photo/oil-10min-jun18?context=latest

    Idan replied:
    July 5th, 2009 at 7:39 pm

    like i said in the video.. that’s what i potentially expect..

  9. ricky says:
    July 5, 2009 at 8:38 am

    i love your daily analysis.can i not get your daily analysis in my e.mail every day

    Idan replied:
    July 5th, 2009 at 7:37 pm

    you can subscribe to my videos on youtube.. you’ll get an email once they are posted..