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10
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I can’t understand all the bullishness and/or uncertainty expressed here, but then, besides having a life, I have less fondness for paying commissions than the folks who are obsessed with 1-min to 15-min charts of dozens of different securities and indices. I think most do it because their objective is to trade a lot instead of maximizing profits. Most of the moves and real or imaginary H&S and other patterns on short-term intraday charts look like noise to me. Why care about noise so much?
Why follow so many items? ETFs based on indices have freed us from diversification. We no longer need to do DD or fear unpredictable exogenous risks associated with single companies. At times like these, when the daily charts are so bearish, I just load up on a hot 3x bear ETF (ERY this time, but it could have been FAZ or SRS or another that looked likely) and set a trailing stop that will let me ride it as long as it stays above or even slightly below the 20-day MA, which supports most of the strong advances.
The 20dMA switched in mid-June from resistance to support of the high-beta bear ETFs, the 50dMA has recently done or seems likely to do the same. The 20dMA has bull-crossed up thru the 50dMA or is likely to soon do so:
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?BGZ,DPK,EDZ,ERY,FAZ,MWN,SRS,TYP,TZA
That’s it — one ETF at a time, traded maybe 5 times a month in two accounts. Somebody else already did the diversifying. Calculate the difference in commissions and ask yourself if frenetically hyperactive day-trading really pays. More importantly, is squinting at a screen from pre-market thru after-hours and thereafter really preferable to having a life?
Beyond that, it is only when contemplating noise that indecision or bullishness seems remotely justified. When viewing the forest and trees instead of twigs and leaves, the markets look dreadful. The 200-day MA resisted the S&P . . . again . . . today. Other indices except Russell and Naz haven’t recently been close enough to even take a shot at the 200dMA. 20dMA’s have topped, and either made a bear cross down thru the 50dMA’s or can hardly avoid it in the very near future. For the entire bear market and some time before, this has been a 100% indicator of a significant plunge being already under way. Even grimmer, the 20dMA’s seem quite likely to “death cross” back down thru the 200dMA’s, with distinct possibilities for the 50dMAs to do likewise. Two-month H&S tops have completed with strong drops down thru the neckline, followed by feeble excuses for what are hardly worthy of being called backtests. These are some of the most bearish of technical events, and are quite reminiscent of previous breakdowns of bear-market rallies, especially the one that ended a year ago.
The action in the Dow is typical. Here are charts of short-term and two-year daily action:
Of course, all have the right to trade as they wish. My style isn’t appropriate for others who have different personal and financial parameters. In spite of two years of precedents again in play, the market may again demonstrate that stocks don’t obey charts; stocks DRAW charts.
But I sure did enjoy that leisurely lunch followed by a nice nap and puttering in my flowerbeds today much more than staring back at this one-eyed monster for twelve or more hours.
And I didn’t pay a dime in commissions.
===========
Added later after several comments:
I dunno, maybe we need one blog for daytraders and another for the rest of us who have lives away from the basilisk gaze of the cyclopean panel. Anyway, it’s nice to see evidence that the rest of us do exist.
Maybe it helps to learn a little math — charts are fractal structures. “Fractal” communicates this concept: Without glancing at the scale or knowing the chart from prior experience, it isn’t usually possible to discern the time interval. EWT is based on the fractal nature of charts, and structured to describe and analyze it. Most charting packages can use bar intervals ranging from one month to one minute or one tick. The following image shows details from a weekly, daily, and 15-min chart:
Which is which?
As a rabid camera bug and rock & minerals freak, I learned that many crystalline minerals have fractal structures. Photos of a given specimen look similar, whether taken at a distance of one millimeter or ten centimeters (100 times farther away). Magnified grains of sand on a beach can appear remarkably similar to the pebbles, rubble, or boulders elsewhere on shorelines. Other examples abound in nature. How much of our lives we can (or wish to) devote to trading is essentially a decision as to how closely we inspect and analyze a structure that keeps looking about the same no matter how minutely we examine it.
Almost paradoxically, one level of enlargement of a chart can indicate an entirely different course of action than another. What is noise to one may be tradable swings to another:
These charts have candles of a day, an hour, 10 min, and one min. Besides leaving open the question of which is which, it seems clear that in the third chart section, prices have quit sliding downward between the 20SMA resistance and the lower BB support, and begun rising up the “left lane” above the support of the 20SMA. Looks like time to sit tight until the 20SMA breaks down. However, the opposite seems true of the second section — it’s likely best to wait for the 20SMA to start supporting before pouncing on this one. HOWEVER — ALL FOUR CHART SECTIONS END AT THE SAME DATE&TIME FOR THE SAME SECURITY. Each time unit is much longer or shorter than the others. Generally, it is said that the chart with the longer time unit dominates, but nice profits are available from trading shorter-term swings, as long as the gain in profits is not dominated by the added expense in terms of commissions & fees, mistakes, time, and enjoyment of life. Each of us needs to determine our own boundaries in this context.
indeed….grumpy.
I agree
so much panic over gay 1-5-10 and 15min charts
HS inverse
150$ stock falls 1.00 and its crashing, etc etc
I agree in most part.. Charles Dow style.. Ride the trend.
I suppose the point is to figure out what kind of trader you are before you lose your money. Then, take input from like-minded traders.
I am 3min for a reason and probably pay more in commissions each day than most. I make over 20 trades a day and rarely less than 1000 shares at a time. I never think about commisions and consider it ‘cheap sales tax’ for something I really want.
July 10th, 2009 at 9:18 pm
i make about 6-9 trades per week, but power moves though..
I dont agree with your comments or with those of your posters
I trade both swing and day trades–make on average about 10 trades a day and swing I really dont have a number cause it depends on setup.
It’s all about the risk though–day trade moves are very predicatable (higher % of success) tigheter stops etc etc. Swing trades -you dont have a clue where the market is going to open, you might get gapped up on a short like crazy (remember PD 28 poitns), smaller positions, bigger gains (hopefully)
my 2 cents
Thanks for the charts and commentary. While I think it’s up to each investor to trade as he sees fit, I for one prefer your investing style. From a second grumpy old bear to the original…have a great weekend! Next week, with the averages crossing on your charts, will be an interesting one indeed.
Thanks Uner,
Not all of us can be anywhere near “the one eyed monster” during the work day.
I do spend a lot of time reading this commentary and related blog sites when I am home. Therefore I cannot do much day trading but i want to thank all who post their thoughts, questions and trades throughout the day and before and after hours.
Uner, I have missed not seeing the volume of post that you were doing earlier in the year. Not only were they informative and helpful, but they were calming to read in a stressful time.
I hope you will continue to active on this board as we ride P3.
Also, is there a board more specificly for swing traders?(although where will I find time for more reading)
Perhaps, if P3 drive me out of business…and I am positioned well,……I may have time to read … AND have that leisurely lunch and nap.
July 11th, 2009 at 10:04 am
If you look at the big Dow chart above, you’ll see that I still see us as riding (5) of P[1], but it doesn’t make much difference to the next few months whether it’s P[3] instead. The EW weenies will gladly tell us for sure . . . AFTER it has happened.
Professor Uner, your wisdom is appreciated…with study and ideas from you and other ST posters i have rehabilitated myself from buy-and-holder and dollar-cost-averager using stock mutual funds into a newbie Trader, looking to simply buy low and sell high using ETF’s…my biggest challenge has been trying to frontrun the trends & turns and poor trade executions due to human error (my SEP-IRA doesn’t offer trailing stops and sometimes my intended scalps turn into unintentional swings, grin) and watching the screen all day does limit ones’s activities of daily living (ie:earning a living for us 9to5′ers) …using the MA’s and following the trends, buying on the dips inside the channels until the MA’s crossover and signal time to exit positions seems to be a simple yet profitable trading style imho…GLT and have a nice weekend…
July 11th, 2009 at 10:38 am
Are you in a situation where you could roll that IRA over into one with a firm that is more trader-friendly? I’ve been pumping stuff from other firms into my Fidelity cash, rollover IRA, and Roth IRA accounts for years.
Now I converted the rollover IRA into the Roth. Tax-sheltering the withdrawals from my (planned) huge profits, along with a 1/3 reduction in commissions, should cover the tax consequences of the Roth conversion. Everybody who is profitably trading in a standard IRA should examine the possibility of conversion and consolidation into a Roth IRA. I had to remind my accountant of the savings in commissions from trading in one account instead of two. You do have to be careful if your income is at or near the six-figure level, though.
July 11th, 2009 at 10:11 pm
your Roth conversion suggestion is appreciated…every dollar of taxes saved is 100% return on that dollar…
Posts like these are refreshing to me because I share this sentiment. I make about 2 trades a month because I work a day job, but I enjoy watching the markets because they fascinate me. I have been riding what I think could be a multiple week downtrend and kinda shrug at the folks going long the market. I learned better when I tried to short in April. It didn’t work. I’ll follow the trend with trailing stops.
nice coms , i like it , i think you have just woke me up !!
cheers
larger time frame charts, not freaking 1 minute charts, provide larger profits. You can’t tell me you couldn’t buy QLD or GS calls in Mid march and held them for 2 months for tremendous gains. You didn’t even have to be good enough to catch the EXACT bottom… give it a few days to confirm, then buy in the money options that expire out in time and you will beat the guy who trades 1000 times a month all day long. Let’s see what I can do during the day while he is staring at a screen???? Play golf, work out at the Y, take my kids to the waterpark, have lunch with my wife…. or Gee, I see a inverse head and shoulders on a one minute, let me jump in….oops that didn’t work,SELL SELL SELL…. good bye commisions.
July 11th, 2009 at 8:59 am
say it again brother…
lol
July 11th, 2009 at 10:12 am
Spouses/sweeties and/or kids do indeed tend to adjust the fractal structure toward the less-detailed views. Or else. Even if they know that your trading is what feeds the family.
July 11th, 2009 at 11:06 am
Craig,
this idea seems good on paper. however, buying puts and calls so far from expiry is a huge gamble and from my experience a waste of money. you can buy PUTS $3 out of the money and pay $2 in premium. crackers with no cheese.
i’ve learnt that buying these puts 10 days from OPEX expiry and having a diversified portfolio of them allows for tremendous reward with much less risk. the premium you pay close to expiry is much much smaller and you can better forecast market direction. dont be buying JAN 2010 PUTS. ive made this mistake for almost a year.
eg. take a look at what $115 PUT JULY PCLN cost back on JUN 13 when the stock told us it was going lower. look at the price for these same puts 2 weeks later. what i did was bought them pre opex JUN and bought JUN puts. cashed them in for over 200% gain. then i bought JULY $115 PUT on the 26th JUN and cashed those last week for 165% gain. what would i have made if i simply bought the $115 puts on the bearish MACD cross and took $115 JULY?
i have not taken the time to calculate the amount but im pretty certain that big risk premium you must pay buying them way out eats your profits.
July 11th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
IF you have conviction that a $150 stock is going to $115 in October you’ll pay a bit a premium today, let’s say it’s $5. If that stock in fact reaches the strike, was it a risk? Yes. Was it worth it? Holy crap. Do the freakin math.
Ummm….did you say something? I was napping.
July 11th, 2009 at 10:27 am
Sorry, I missed it. I was deadheading my verbenas and geraniums.
———– 10 TRADING DAYS TO OPEX EXPIRY ———— i buy puts in a tight selection of equities and within a week i cash them all out. this time i made between 60 and 165%.
———- 5 DAYS TO OPEX EXPIRY ———– the market can make wild swings in this time frame so im going to stare at my computer and make lots of trades if i have the time.
———– FAZ, ERY, SRS —— the bearish cross 20/40sma on my chart says we head lower Monday and then rise back up to test at least the 20 day moving average on the SPX. will re-enter SRS or ERY at that time. most likely on OPEX FRIDAY.
————- 9 TRADING DAYS FROM FRIDAY ———— start searching for individual equities that are well above or below max pain levels and get charting for that next 200% gainer. maybe this time it will be more calls than puts if the markets move lower quickly.
UNERS __ YOU ARE A GREAT CONTRIBUTOR ….. keep it up!
“Basilisk”?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basilisk
As I’ve said before, I’m always learning something new from you!
I will be big time long USO calls sometime Monday-Tuesday. Bounce coming, yes? WAY oversold.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$WTIC
July 11th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
No options in DXO, so USO works for me.
July 11th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
That gallery view of $WTIC is an excellent example of how the level of fractal detail can influence trades. “Daily View” may look oversold, but the “Weekly View” is seriously overBOUGHT, with the “Point & Figure View” voodoo targeting a 20% drop.
However, even the daily chart could see the 50dMA resisting a brief bounce as oil tops and heads downward for a death cross of the 200dMA. This teeny free daily chart shows the familiar two-month H&S completing even more decidedly than on most other charts, as the 20dMA has changed from support to resistance while it tops and plunges toward a likely “bear cross” down thru the 50dMA (and “death cross” of the 200dMA):
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?USO
So I would sell those calls pretty quick into any kind of 10%ish USO bounce into the 20dMA.
Substitute $DJUSEN for USO — the stocks look worse, and stocks tend to lead the associated commodity.
The flip side is that I own ERY, with a trailing stop designed to track just below its 20dMA, the idea being to ride up the “left lane” described above.
July 12th, 2009 at 11:04 am
Yep. Just a short swing, then back in the dumper.
RE: Trading. It’s simple. I enjoy the action and the challenge. I pay $5 or $15 a trade depending on the broker. Day trading options is a losing proposition for most. True. BUT….the $$$$$ (profits) on a daily basis = MUCH more than buy and hold philosophy. I don’t have the patience anyway. I don’t have the time to stare at screens everyday. When I do, I pile in and make the most of it. To each his own. That said, I have a VERY bearish outlook and have started to accumuloate some out-of-the-money October puts. No doubt a swan will decend upon the markets. Until then, in my trading acccount… FOLLOW THE MONEY!!!
Luck all.
July 11th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Line in the sand….913. Even with my short term bull outlook on USO, Big oil can only do so much on SPX. I’ll be all in short at that level and enjoy the ride. Buy the dip days end next week IMVHO
It sounds lovely until your ass is handed to you while you are at the waterpark. Uner is this the same “load em up” strategy that you used to bury everyone in FAZ????? Can you do a thread showing your detailed entry points and exit points for FAZ since last November? THAT would be useful information depicting the results of your “trading” style.
Be a Nostrodamus if you think you have the future pinned down months out, but don’t knock people that trade shorter time periods. I for one enjoy the ins and outs of the moves.
Why even include charts, this thread is a promotion more or less for “buy and hold”.
July 11th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
I already posted charts and tables with all my FAZ trades in recent months, mostly recently being a strategy that brought 40%ish profits in about a month, as Richard (PB) also remarked. If you are so interested in my trades, you are welcome to dig back thru a few weeks of blogs and verify this, but don’t expect me to do it again.
As to the implication that I “knock people that trade shorter time periods,” you must be very busy with your trading. Perhaps that explains why you did not take the trouble to read or comprehend the original post, which contains, among others, the following phrases:
“Of course, all have the right to trade as they wish. My style isn’t appropriate for others who have different personal and financial parameters.”
“What is noise to one may be tradable swings to another.”
“…nice profits are available from trading shorter-term swings, as long as the gain in profits is not dominated by the added expense in terms of commissions & fees, mistakes, time, and enjoyment of life. Each of us needs to determine our own boundaries in this context.”
July 11th, 2009 at 9:09 pm
How funny TXChristopher I was thinking the same thing..I remember the comment that was made to me when I sold FAZ in the low 30’s (bought at 35) and bought FAS instead..I was so glad I did…I wonder how Cottonman is doing?
From Free Trading Videos
http://www.freetradingvideos.com/vlog/default.asp
Almost as bearish as Unersaettlich.
July 11th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Like his work, usually
Uner, accept several of your theories–however, new administration and PPT are very recognizable at this point. What used to be a “free” market, is no more. Until these socialism policies subside, all bets are off–will keep a close watch. EWT will ultimately triumph, but to what degree and how long?
Learning a lot from you–very much appreciated. Have the 200DMA, 50DMA, 20DMA loaded.
Lehman Redux?
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/cit-prepares-to-file-bankruptcy.html
July 11th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
affect on the market Monday morning?
60-80 point selloff and a 870 test only to reverse and push higher around 9/10am
From The Chart Pattern Trader
http://thechartpatterntrader.com/
Excellent discussion of crude oil and related ETFs.
It is worth revisiting an observation we made in July last year. While the down move did not come perfectly in
terms of timing last year, the fall, when it came was far greater than had been anticipated.
Nonethelsss it is worth reminding ourselves that…….around the 17th July has often been a pivotal point for
equities in the last ¼ century.
What is it about 17th July????
We have on many occasions talked about the difficult periods of 1980-1982 (most severe economic period
since the great depression mainly caused by a collapse in housing); 1990-1991 (recession caused by
housing); 2001 (Slowdown caused by the equity market) and 2007-2008 (Housing and credit crisis).
In addition we have see a difficult credit period in 1998 (LTCM, Russia etc) and a sudden stock market
collapse in 1987.
On that basis it is worth remembering some of the history below.
1981: DJIA having started to turn sharply lower had a short-term bounce, which peaked at 964.80 on 17th
July. By 23rd July it was 4.8% lower and by end of Sept. it was over 16% lower.
1982: DJIA having started to turn sharply lower had a short-term bounce which peaked at 843.80 on 21st
July. (Missing the magic date by 4 days) But by 09 August it was nearly 9% lower
1987: DJIA was in a solid bull market, which peaked at a new high of 2,520 on 17th July. By 21st July it was
2.7% lower and while it then rallied strongly we of course ended up with a stock market crash in October.
1990: DJIA was in a solid bull market, which peaked at 3,011 on 17th July. By 23rd July it was 5.25% lower
and by mid October it was 20% lower.
1998: DJIA was in a solid bull market, which peaked at 9,413 on 17th July. By 28th July it was 6.6% lower
and by mid September it was over 20% lower.
2001: DJIA hit a corrective high of 10,758 on 19th July (again a small miss of the magic date). By 25th July it
was 5.5% lower and by the 21 September it was over 26% lower.
2002: DJIA hit a corrective high of 8,765 on 17th July. By 24th July it was 13% lower and by October lower
still at the base of the bear market.
2007: DJIA hit a trend high of 14,022 on 17th July. By 01 August it was 6.3% lower and by mid August
nearly 11% lower
2008: DJIA had started to move lower but began a bounce on15th July. On 23rd July it had a quick 3 day fall
of just under 5% It then rallied again into 11th August but we of course ended up with a stock market crash in
October/November in a development eerily similar to 1987.
So if we look back over all these major years in over a quarter of a century (9 instances) in 7 of them the
period from the 17th to the 21st July we have begun a significant move lower in equities. In the 2 instances
(1987 and 2008) that we did not immediately head lower we ended up with Stock market crashes later in the
year…..all in all an ominous set up.
Is 2009 going to be another year where this dynamic kicks in?
July 11th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
from CitiFX
July 11th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
Thanks, I was wracking my brain on Friday trying to remember where I had seen this.
Agreed that most daily charts look very bearish…but interestingly the WEEKLY charts are not nearly as bearish (yet). Instead on the charts of the major indexes, there are 2 important points:
—we never tested the important 50-day SMA as resistance on this most recent rally…
—we did however break through the 20-day SMA, but haven’t yet back tested it as support.
But it does look like we are nearing the 20-day SMA to test whether it does in fact hold as support, or breaks down.
My guess is it does hold and we bounce to the 50-day SMA. My best guess would be we find resistance at the 50-day and perhaps move lower from there, however the bounce of the 20-day could complete a nice IHS formation and perhaps we continue to move higher.
**this is especially clear on the DJUSFN where the 20-day was strong resistance 3 times, I would be surprised if it doesn’t hold as support at least once.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=t89531045629&r=3184&cmd=sendchart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJUSFN&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=t20763817199&r=7488&cmd=sendchart
Thoughts? Do you trust the Daily or the Weekly charts..?
July 11th, 2009 at 8:35 pm
sorry, meant the 30-day SMA, not 20-day.
July 11th, 2009 at 9:27 pm
Here is my simple thought process. Everyone has this as a slanted H & S and broken through but if you take the horizontal neckline it still has not closed underneath, it fell under and bounced up to start to create what I think will be a second right shoulder.
Remember I said a week ago that it needed more time and a second right shoulder to look more like the left, which took 18 days to develop. Sure enough here we are a week later, have a possibility for a second right shoulder and the timeline is much more in line (still need a few more days) while this slanted H & S has done nothing as far as follow through even though the “breakthrough and backtest” was completed earlier this past week.
Take the July 17th turning point with historical importance as noted by Zee’s post above from citi, the fact that this turning point lands on opex itself and the H & S pattern that no one is paying attention to (the real one imo) and it seems to me we don’t go down until after opex, assuming the pattern doesn’t fail.
If you want a bullish count, here is mortie who has been pretty good with some of these counts. While I don’t know that I agree, it would fall in line with Danerics thought process that P2 isn’t over yet and has one more attempt at a high left.
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/11/morties-weekend-follies-11jul2009/
July 11th, 2009 at 9:29 pm
sorry, this DJUSFN chart is a little more clear with the 30-day SMA plugged in rather than the 20-Day, and how perfectly it held as resistance twice in ‘07 and twice in ‘08. I think it will have to be strong support the first time we backtest it.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJUSFN&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=t07851194273&r=4857&cmd=sendchart
July 12th, 2009 at 12:30 am
The weekly charts look pretty grim to me, but mine use home-grown parameters for the overlays and indicators that work better than the default parameters:
http://i30.tinypic.com/15etxsh.png
The financials ($DJUSFN) are even nastier — they peaked back in May, and never even made it up to the 12-mo MA.
Excellent Post
This is trully a service to the mayority of people that come to Stocktock.
A response to comment #5:
I agree & disagree with you. Yes, a combination of both is a style used by some of the best retail traders I know (Brian Shannon, Upsidetrader etc..). Nonetheless for the vast mayority of people that read these posts,, daytrading will kill their account.
Here are some statistics:
http://www.nasaa.org/content/Files/Day_Trading_Analysis.pdf
Based on this, Uners message is a true service that most should seriously follow. That being said, Never ever ever break the risk management rule. No matter what your style is. If the market doesn’t agree with you,, take your loss. As this basic informative clip will show:
http://bit.ly/hHndt
As far as post #22,
Check out : http://www.dcradio700.com/AUDIO/EdHandley070909.mp3
This guy was recomended here by S135 and his analysis is very good. He has a bit of a diffrent view for the events around the July 17th.
Thanks for taking the time to contribute here Uner. Always look forward to reading your posts.
July 12th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
The study dates pre-1992, in a period with massive growth in the S&P 500 where a buy-and-hold strategy would of been the saffest bet to go. Currently, the buy-and-hold stategy is a myth.The study, I believe is a warning to not trade if you do not completely understand the markets. Some criticism I have is that the study lacks statistical significance..they analyzed the bare-minimum amount of people.. 30 random public retail investors..
Also we do know who are the sample subjects. How much knowledge do these public day traders have, if any?? How much experience do they have? Some of them are doing 1 day-trade a day.. on what basis? ‘Technical breakout, news release…?” I’ve read in TA books, that 90% of traders lose within 2 years. However, these people are ‘hardly traders’ to me, if they cannot maintain their account balance.. Remember, the stock market is a zero-sum game defined as a situation in which a participant’s gain or loss is exactly balanced by the losses or gains of the other participant(s).
You must be a really good day-trader to account for risk of error, commision/execution costs, lost time, lost opportunity costs, MMs, volatility, being more profitable than a day-job and your risk of ruin. This is why amateurs fail.
July 12th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
[we do *not know]
July 12th, 2009 at 9:06 pm
At least two comments here and above seem to imply that I advocate a buy&hold strategy. This is hardly the case. All trades I posted have usually been some days apart, although a few happened on the same day.
My current approach is based on bearish ETFs climbing up the “left lane” between the 20SMA and the upper 20-period BB. The chart period is typically an hour, and the number of securities I own is typically one. I attempt to trade the swings within those boundaries, with a trailing stop that attempts to track just below the 20SMA. I bought ERY when it dipped into the 26’s, and will probably unload it when it spikes the upper BB and looks to be topping out, planning to reload near the 20SMA or wherever the subsequent dip runs out of steam. As stated, most trades are separated by a few days. The fractal structure of charts means that this approach is theoretically equivalent to trading from 15-minute or 1-minute charts, except that it strongly reduces the demands of trading on my time and wallet.
The zero-sum hogwash is ignorant of the significant drainage from commissions. This should be obvious to anyone who knows what a zero-sum game is.