<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
		>
<channel>
	<title>Comments on: A grumpy old bear</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.focalequity.com/2009/07/10/a-grumpy-old-bear/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/07/10/a-grumpy-old-bear/</link>
	<description>A Synergy of StockTock &#38; KhronoStock</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 04:21:24 -0700</lastBuildDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2</generator>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
		<item>
		<title>By: Unersaettlich</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/07/10/a-grumpy-old-bear/comment-page-1/#comment-76146</link>
		<dc:creator>Unersaettlich</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2009 01:06:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=16211#comment-76146</guid>
		<description>At least two comments here and above seem to imply that I advocate a buy&amp;hold strategy.  This is hardly the case.  All trades I posted have usually been some days apart, although a few happened on the same day.  

My current approach is based on bearish ETFs climbing up the &quot;left lane&quot; between the 20SMA and the upper 20-period BB.  The chart period is typically an hour, and the number of securities I own is typically one.  I attempt to trade the swings within those boundaries, with a trailing stop that attempts to track just below the 20SMA.  I bought ERY when it dipped into the 26&#039;s, and will probably unload it when it spikes the upper BB and looks to be topping out, planning to reload near the 20SMA or wherever the subsequent dip runs out of steam.  As stated, most trades are separated by a few days.  The fractal structure of charts means that this approach is theoretically equivalent to trading from 15-minute or 1-minute charts, except that it strongly reduces the demands of trading on my time and wallet.  

The zero-sum hogwash is ignorant of the significant drainage from commissions.  This should be obvious to anyone who knows what a zero-sum game is.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At least two comments here and above seem to imply that I advocate a buy&amp;hold strategy.  This is hardly the case.  All trades I posted have usually been some days apart, although a few happened on the same day.  </p>
<p>My current approach is based on bearish ETFs climbing up the &#8220;left lane&#8221; between the 20SMA and the upper 20-period BB.  The chart period is typically an hour, and the number of securities I own is typically one.  I attempt to trade the swings within those boundaries, with a trailing stop that attempts to track just below the 20SMA.  I bought ERY when it dipped into the 26&#8217;s, and will probably unload it when it spikes the upper BB and looks to be topping out, planning to reload near the 20SMA or wherever the subsequent dip runs out of steam.  As stated, most trades are separated by a few days.  The fractal structure of charts means that this approach is theoretically equivalent to trading from 15-minute or 1-minute charts, except that it strongly reduces the demands of trading on my time and wallet.  </p>
<p>The zero-sum hogwash is ignorant of the significant drainage from commissions.  This should be obvious to anyone who knows what a zero-sum game is.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: zee</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/07/10/a-grumpy-old-bear/comment-page-1/#comment-76130</link>
		<dc:creator>zee</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 16:49:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=16211#comment-76130</guid>
		<description>[we do *not know]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[we do *not know]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: zee</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/07/10/a-grumpy-old-bear/comment-page-1/#comment-76129</link>
		<dc:creator>zee</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 16:47:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=16211#comment-76129</guid>
		<description>The study dates pre-1992, in a period with massive growth in the S&amp;P 500 where a buy-and-hold strategy would of been the saffest bet to go. Currently, the buy-and-hold stategy is a myth.The study,  I believe is a warning to not trade if you do not completely understand the markets. Some criticism I have is that the study lacks statistical significance..they analyzed the bare-minimum amount of people.. 30 random public retail investors.. 
Also we do know who are the sample subjects. How much knowledge do these public day traders have, if any?? How much experience do they have? Some of them are doing 1 day-trade a day.. on what basis? &#039;Technical breakout, news release...?&quot; I&#039;ve read in TA books, that 90% of traders lose within 2 years.  However, these people are  &#039;hardly traders&#039; to me, if they cannot maintain their account balance..  Remember, the stock market is a zero-sum game defined as a situation in which a participant&#039;s gain or loss is exactly balanced by the losses or gains of the other participant(s). 

You must be a really good day-trader to account for risk of error, commision/execution costs, lost time, lost opportunity costs, MMs, volatility, being more profitable than a day-job and your risk of ruin. This is why amateurs fail.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The study dates pre-1992, in a period with massive growth in the S&amp;P 500 where a buy-and-hold strategy would of been the saffest bet to go. Currently, the buy-and-hold stategy is a myth.The study,  I believe is a warning to not trade if you do not completely understand the markets. Some criticism I have is that the study lacks statistical significance..they analyzed the bare-minimum amount of people.. 30 random public retail investors..<br />
Also we do know who are the sample subjects. How much knowledge do these public day traders have, if any?? How much experience do they have? Some of them are doing 1 day-trade a day.. on what basis? &#8216;Technical breakout, news release&#8230;?&#8221; I&#8217;ve read in TA books, that 90% of traders lose within 2 years.  However, these people are  &#8216;hardly traders&#8217; to me, if they cannot maintain their account balance..  Remember, the stock market is a zero-sum game defined as a situation in which a participant&#8217;s gain or loss is exactly balanced by the losses or gains of the other participant(s). </p>
<p>You must be a really good day-trader to account for risk of error, commision/execution costs, lost time, lost opportunity costs, MMs, volatility, being more profitable than a day-job and your risk of ruin. This is why amateurs fail.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: FLguy</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/07/10/a-grumpy-old-bear/comment-page-1/#comment-76128</link>
		<dc:creator>FLguy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 15:04:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=16211#comment-76128</guid>
		<description>Yep. Just a short swing, then back in the dumper.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yep. Just a short swing, then back in the dumper.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Optic</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/07/10/a-grumpy-old-bear/comment-page-1/#comment-76127</link>
		<dc:creator>Optic</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 13:35:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=16211#comment-76127</guid>
		<description>Excellent Post 

This is trully a service to the mayority of people that come to Stocktock.

A response to comment #5:

I agree &amp; disagree with you.  Yes, a combination of both is a style used by some of the best retail traders I know (Brian Shannon, Upsidetrader etc..).  Nonetheless for the vast mayority of people that read these posts,, daytrading will kill their account.

Here are some statistics:
http://www.nasaa.org/content/Files/Day_Trading_Analysis.pdf

Based on this, Uners message is a true service that most should seriously follow.  That being said, Never ever ever break the risk management rule.   No matter what your style is.  If the market doesn&#039;t agree with you,, take your loss.  As this basic informative clip will show:  

http://bit.ly/hHndt

As far as post #22,
Check out :  http://www.dcradio700.com/AUDIO/EdHandley070909.mp3

This guy was recomended here by S135 and his analysis is very good. He has a bit of a diffrent view for the events around the July 17th. 


Thanks for taking the time to contribute here Uner.  Always look forward to reading your posts.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Excellent Post </p>
<p>This is trully a service to the mayority of people that come to Stocktock.</p>
<p>A response to comment #5:</p>
<p>I agree &amp; disagree with you.  Yes, a combination of both is a style used by some of the best retail traders I know (Brian Shannon, Upsidetrader etc..).  Nonetheless for the vast mayority of people that read these posts,, daytrading will kill their account.</p>
<p>Here are some statistics:<br />
<a href="http://www.nasaa.org/content/Files/Day_Trading_Analysis.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.nasaa.org/content/Files/Day_Trading_Analysis.pdf</a></p>
<p>Based on this, Uners message is a true service that most should seriously follow.  That being said, Never ever ever break the risk management rule.   No matter what your style is.  If the market doesn&#8217;t agree with you,, take your loss.  As this basic informative clip will show:  </p>
<p><a href="http://bit.ly/hHndt" rel="nofollow">http://bit.ly/hHndt</a></p>
<p>As far as post #22,<br />
Check out :  <a href="http://www.dcradio700.com/AUDIO/EdHandley070909.mp3" rel="nofollow">http://www.dcradio700.com/AUDIO/EdHandley070909.mp3</a></p>
<p>This guy was recomended here by S135 and his analysis is very good. He has a bit of a diffrent view for the events around the July 17th. </p>
<p>Thanks for taking the time to contribute here Uner.  Always look forward to reading your posts.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Unersaettlich</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/07/10/a-grumpy-old-bear/comment-page-1/#comment-76122</link>
		<dc:creator>Unersaettlich</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 04:30:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=16211#comment-76122</guid>
		<description>The weekly charts look pretty grim to me, but mine use home-grown parameters for the overlays and indicators that work better than the default parameters:

http://i30.tinypic.com/15etxsh.png

The financials ($DJUSFN) are even nastier -- they peaked back in May, and never even made it up to the 12-mo MA.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The weekly charts look pretty grim to me, but mine use home-grown parameters for the overlays and indicators that work better than the default parameters:</p>
<p><a href="http://i30.tinypic.com/15etxsh.png" rel="nofollow">http://i30.tinypic.com/15etxsh.png</a></p>
<p>The financials ($DJUSFN) are even nastier &#8212; they peaked back in May, and never even made it up to the 12-mo MA.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: TNbear</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/07/10/a-grumpy-old-bear/comment-page-1/#comment-76121</link>
		<dc:creator>TNbear</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 02:11:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=16211#comment-76121</guid>
		<description>your Roth conversion suggestion is appreciated...every dollar of taxes saved is 100% return on that dollar...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>your Roth conversion suggestion is appreciated&#8230;every dollar of taxes saved is 100% return on that dollar&#8230;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: ajb5000</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/07/10/a-grumpy-old-bear/comment-page-1/#comment-76120</link>
		<dc:creator>ajb5000</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 01:29:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=16211#comment-76120</guid>
		<description>sorry, this DJUSFN chart is a little more clear with the 30-day SMA plugged in rather than the 20-Day, and how perfectly it held as resistance twice in &#039;07 and twice in &#039;08.  I think it will have to be strong support the first time we backtest it.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJUSFN&amp;p=W&amp;b=5&amp;g=0&amp;id=t07851194273&amp;r=4857&amp;cmd=sendchart</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>sorry, this DJUSFN chart is a little more clear with the 30-day SMA plugged in rather than the 20-Day, and how perfectly it held as resistance twice in &#8216;07 and twice in &#8216;08.  I think it will have to be strong support the first time we backtest it.</p>
<p><a href="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJUSFN&amp;p=W&amp;b=5&amp;g=0&amp;id=t07851194273&amp;r=4857&amp;cmd=sendchart" rel="nofollow">http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJUSFN&amp;p=W&amp;b=5&amp;g=0&amp;id=t07851194273&amp;r=4857&amp;cmd=sendchart</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: ckeltner</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/07/10/a-grumpy-old-bear/comment-page-1/#comment-76119</link>
		<dc:creator>ckeltner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 01:27:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=16211#comment-76119</guid>
		<description>Here is my simple thought process. Everyone has this as a slanted H &amp; S and broken through but if you take the horizontal neckline it still has not closed underneath, it fell under and bounced up to start to create what I think will be a second right shoulder. 

Remember I said a week ago that it needed more time and a second right shoulder to look more like the left, which took 18 days to develop. Sure enough here we are a week later, have a possibility for a second right shoulder and the timeline is much more in line (still need a few more days) while this slanted H &amp; S has done nothing as far as follow through even though the &quot;breakthrough and backtest&quot; was completed earlier this past week.

Take the July 17th turning point with historical importance as noted by Zee&#039;s post above from citi, the fact that this turning point lands on opex itself and the H &amp; S pattern that no one is paying attention to (the real one imo) and it seems to me we don&#039;t go down until after opex, assuming the pattern doesn&#039;t fail.

If you want a bullish count, here is mortie who has been pretty good with some of these counts. While I don&#039;t know that I agree, it would fall in line with Danerics thought process that P2 isn&#039;t over yet and has one more attempt at a high left.

http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/11/morties-weekend-follies-11jul2009/</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here is my simple thought process. Everyone has this as a slanted H &amp; S and broken through but if you take the horizontal neckline it still has not closed underneath, it fell under and bounced up to start to create what I think will be a second right shoulder. </p>
<p>Remember I said a week ago that it needed more time and a second right shoulder to look more like the left, which took 18 days to develop. Sure enough here we are a week later, have a possibility for a second right shoulder and the timeline is much more in line (still need a few more days) while this slanted H &amp; S has done nothing as far as follow through even though the &#8220;breakthrough and backtest&#8221; was completed earlier this past week.</p>
<p>Take the July 17th turning point with historical importance as noted by Zee&#8217;s post above from citi, the fact that this turning point lands on opex itself and the H &amp; S pattern that no one is paying attention to (the real one imo) and it seems to me we don&#8217;t go down until after opex, assuming the pattern doesn&#8217;t fail.</p>
<p>If you want a bullish count, here is mortie who has been pretty good with some of these counts. While I don&#8217;t know that I agree, it would fall in line with Danerics thought process that P2 isn&#8217;t over yet and has one more attempt at a high left.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/11/morties-weekend-follies-11jul2009/" rel="nofollow">http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/11/morties-weekend-follies-11jul2009/</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: ckeltner</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2009/07/10/a-grumpy-old-bear/comment-page-1/#comment-76118</link>
		<dc:creator>ckeltner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 01:17:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=16211#comment-76118</guid>
		<description>Thanks, I was wracking my brain on Friday trying to remember where I had seen this.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks, I was wracking my brain on Friday trying to remember where I had seen this.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>
