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20
Jul
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1:43am
Here’s the SPX daily chart showing some strong resistance around the 945-950 level… and we might need more than just one hit to break this..
12:20am
Futures are slightly higher despite the 7% rally that we had yesterday.. although I must warn the bulls once more, even though it looks great for the bulls, we are hitting up against longer term resistance from 2008 (descending) which sorta covers the 945-950 region on the SPX… we hit it at 953 last time on the S&P and now we’re hitting it around these levels.. If we break above, buy on dips, but we might not break above it, and so the H&S could still technically form.
Well, folks. Looks like down to me.
July 20th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Neg divergences are massive.
July 20th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
Like Obama’s 50% approval rating?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com
NEWS: 2:01 PM A report from the TARP special inspector general – leaked to media outlets but not yet released to public – says U.S. bailouts and backstop plans total $23.7T. The number is part of SIG Neil Barofsky’s planned remarks before a House committee on Tuesday. Of the $700B slated for TARP, $441B has been distributed.
July 20th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
We’re fucked.
July 20th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Hit Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aY0tX8UysIaM
July 20th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
wow ! that’s wicked
July 20th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
Wow. Even in my uber-doom-and-gloom imagination, I hadn’t come up with that number.
July 20th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/watchdog-treasury-has-failed-to-adopt-bailout-safeguards-2009-07-20.html
Took 10% $$$ on 1/2 AMD calls. Might reload on retrace. Earnings after close tomorrow.
July 20th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
1:49 PM Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) up 2.8% as FBR Capital Markets upgrades it to outperform on “cash generation potential” and improving PC demand.
Closed VIX JUL 25’s (OPEX Wednesday).Rolled to AUG 30’s
backtesting trend line right now.
July 20th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Where is it gonna go? Big UP or big DOWN Master Woo?
July 20th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
so there’s been a good amount of movement up in this area, but all of it can be accounted for by trend lines, ma’s and fib retraces. this means that we don’t need a larger move upward to account for any unexplainable significant support/resistance points.
generally this would mean that it can fall and there would be no problems whatsoever on the technicals.
i’ve got puts, and will be holding them into tomorrow, and maybe even longer. first major retrace at 918.5…
July 20th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/woo1month-21?context=album&albumId=2348194%3AAlbum%3A32749
July 20th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
hitting trend line on the 6 month, slightly above the trend line on the 1 month.
make or break time… it can go a little higher on the 6 month…
July 20th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
please let it be up, i’ m long the markets
July 20th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
it could go up, but needs to break the blue trend line:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/wooew6-month-10?context=album&albumId=2348194%3AAlbum%3A32749
and then break into new highs.
July 20th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
it could go up, but needs to break the blue trend line:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/wooew6-month-10?context=album&albumId=2348194%3AAlbum%3A32749
and then break into new highs.
BAC and C in the toilet. A tell?
Intraday vid. Good:
http://social.stocktock.com/video/market-techical-analysis
Stopped out last HGSI. Shoulda bought the dip. Ugh.
Get off the rug.
Pitchforks!
Fed’s AIG-related SPVs have lost $8.56 billion. What else are we going to learn today?
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/quelle-surprise-fed-is-reporting-losses.html
This is for all you bulls out there (I’m surprised CNBC isn’t using this as their theme song, it kind of sounds like Dennis Kneale):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kv-mxH9Z6ao&feature=related
July 20th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
LOL
July 20th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
And one for the dubious bears who questioned their views. From the camp meeting:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=estc8Zw3ZjU
Server trouble here?\
Bought the AMD and AAPL dips.
July 20th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Yup. Stinks.
Short into the news tomorrow S135? Not like the market is topping out or anything.
More detailed article
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/watchdog-treasury-has-failed-to-adopt-bailout-safeguards-2009-07-20.html
July 20th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
LOL. I just like watching to see the swan dive, again. The 20ma/10m ain’t givin’ up, but the divergences are impressive, but they have been defeated so many times it makes a TA purist want to eat his keyboard.
July 20th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Money Quote
“Meanwhile, Barofsky’s office has opened 35 criminal and civil investigations into issues including suspected accounting fraud, securities fraud, insider trading, mortgage servicer misconduct, mortgage fraud, public corruption, false statements and taxes.”
Pitchforks?
Wedge forming on FAZ–looking for WFC to break up.
July 20th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Sitting right on sup!
3pm.
Showtime.
that’s a LOT of knocking on 948…
if it doesn’t hold this time…the bears are in trouble short term…
July 20th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
right on the trend line on the 6 month… mid to high 948s…
let’s see if it breaks or not…
July 20th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
hit 950 spx
July 20th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
yup…
bears are going to need some huge RED candles to bring down the avg on the 60 minute..
if not, the bulls might have this…
and we might see more of the 5 of 5.
July 20th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Woo – still planning on holding your puts … where are your stops on this … what will you be watching for ?
July 20th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
holding puts to about 922? then watching….possibly grab calls…
if market breaks 956 i’m out short term to wait out the furst retrace before going long…
I would really like to see the RIFIN hit 662 today! 666 even better!
Retail will pile in.
1 month trendlines broken to the north.
6 month trend lines broken to the north.
only thing north of here is the previous high…
July 20th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
spx opened above 950 10 min
July 20th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
spx opened above 950 10 min
Get ready for yet another short squeeze this week. Too many amateur bears are expecting the market to tank this week and will be punished. CHIP sector will continue to kick azz this week.
Keep an eye on AMD.
July 20th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
I beleive u r right.
… finding no buyers at 950, it will ……..
… finding no buyers at 950. Uh oh.
Took 12% $$$$ DELL AMD C’s
1/2 position left
avg coming down a little…if the market drops more, we’ll stay below the 6 month trend line…
RED Team. Suit up.
staying above the trend line…
could mean danger:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/wooew6-month-11?context=user
market could head to a 1040 minimum if it is doing a 5 of 5 right now…
July 20th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Fearmonger.
There are no buyers!!
Say EOD 954.
Now 65/35 long.
AAPL AMD DELL C’s
VIX C, FAS P
Ditched the AIG after the CIT news earlier
July 20th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
I went SDS, but in hopes of a quick dip before another rise.
July 20th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
and I think we just had our drop.. sold them =P
Hey I heard the recession is over. Great.
what they want to do ? take the market to the moon in one day . I just get sds at 51.34.
Red team #1 … hit the XLF.
Red Team #2 … the Qs.
Good job Red Team #1; you took out their VWAP.
July 20th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Yeah, I bet the green team is shaking in their shoes.
————– THIS IS THE BULLS LAST CHANCE TO BREAK THE BEAR’S BACK ————–
they just cant afford even the slightest retrace or many small timers will want to pull the plug. so all bad news must be spun good for the rest of this month. im not ready to commit any large sums of cash until i see where we are at around Aug 4th.
how many days do they have to settle the overwhelming number of call options? 3 i believe. could we have 3 up days… possibly. impossible to know how many want shares and how many simply want the cash. im still NEUTRAL . Most of my puts are on small banks. Long FAS calls against them. and a few other positions. this is the kind of action i called for on Friday… no pull back… get up and run for the goal line.
July 20th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
——— IBOC ——— i sold my $12.50 puts for some nice cha ching last month. now in the $10.00s …………. is IBOC the next CIT ?…. similar in nature.
July 20th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Also – if the mkt rallies in the mean time, then people will opt to exercise their calls…. how many will sell immediately – that is an open question … but the transfer of shares is happening to the retail investors ….
trend line is holding….
however, i tried drawing a long term chart. there’s a chance we could head towards the 1077 area…if the bulls prevail.
even if we pullback, we might only see 920, and then a bigger rise. more confirmation for this will come this week.
i’ll be pulling out of short positions at 920 just in case. willing to hold them till 952-9554 area…
July 20th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
i have 1016 or so……… feel like a gomer thinking 1,000 but whatever. they have to get there by August 4th. if they suck all the SELL-IN-MAY bunch back in. just may pull it off.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Richard – what is the big deal about Aug 4th … sorry … maybe I missed it …
July 20th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
920 is 38.2% retrace area from here. I have to believe that will be hit in the next couple of days, right?
$VIX up 0.5%.
95.10 is taking a beating….
Red Team seen taking O2 on the sidelines
VIX about to go red. Is that what you meant by RED Team?
NYSE AD Line Breaks June High
By Arthur Hill
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/dont_ignore_this_chart/2009/07/nyse-ad-line-breaks-june-high.html
P&F charts all show Dub top breakouts
Comp = 2250
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$COMPQ,P&listNum=
S&P = 1115
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$SPX,P&listNum=
DJI = 10400
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$INDU,P&listNum=
Anyone STILL think the H&S can still form?………………………………………
The bulls won this battle & have the bears by the a@%……& they know it
Short everything. The rally is overdone, we’re being lied to, and the earnings are bogus because every company is downsized. No workers = no paychecks, no spending.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Great advice.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Morris:
A serious question for you. Does your bullishness come from your reading of T/A and market sentiment or does it come from the belief the economy is close to a turnaround and is based on fundamentals ? I swing trade both ways but I always get a little nervous when I go long as I see the market and the economy as a house of cards waiting to collapse. I just don’t know either the timing or the catalyst.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Well, I am not always bullish. I was certainly short earlier this year and I imagine that I will be short again at some point (maybe soon). I am not hyper-bullish at the moment. I haven’t dumped all of my portfolio into 3X bull funds. In fact, I think of my current portfolio as very conservative. I only have 6 positions right now and three of them (XLP, XLU, and XLV) are definitely defensive longs. TBT is a longer term play against inflation. XLF is a more aggressive position that has done very well (I recommended it here a few weeks back at 11.00) but I may close it soon. The UCO is a swing that I initiated on Thursday of last week at 10.00 (I posted it here) and I will likely close it tomorrow.
I trade on my reading of market sentiment. I do not care about charts, news, or fundamentals. I don’t want to care about any of it. It’s just numbers to me and if the numbers are going my way then I am happy.
Simple.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
Morris:
Thanks for the response. Also, please stick around. I think you help provide balance. From what I can tell most on this site disagree but for the most part I think everyone has been respectful toward you. Personally, though I am on the bearish side, I read all of your posts and find them useful.
AMZN at it’s 1 year high. sheesh.
Need another .04 drop in the UUP….
$VIX Divergence pic:
http://i31.tinypic.com/x3g604.png
Anyone take calls in HGSI? (banging head against my office wall)
July 20th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
lol…
if anyone had gotten in on that, they should just retire haha.
spx 956 tomorrow at least, don’t ya think? Gotta retest the old High of last month.
No one wants to sprint for the yellow jersey?
GUESS THEY SET THE DIAL TO 960 NEXT? have fun . im going to go
throw some darts right now to see what my plan is for tomorrow.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
i like it ! i just roll a dice
Money Quote
“Meanwhile, Barofsky’s office has opened 35 criminal and civil investigations into issues including suspected accounting fraud, securities fraud, insider trading, mortgage servicer misconduct, mortgage fraud, public corruption, false statements and taxes.”
Par for the course.
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/watchdog-treasury-has-failed-to-adopt-bailout-safeguards-2009-07-20.html
afternoon…can you guys share an update why dollar was down and treasuries are up?tks.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
foreign investors normally unload treasuries when dollar slides…perhaps Fed is buying to cool off supply concerns before 100billion+ EOM:July auctions?
July 20th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
One trader with a technicians bent noted that the 3.72 percent level on the 10 year note was approximately a .618 Fibionacci retracement of the 4.00 percent to 3.25 percent move.
Finally, Chairman Bernanke will speak (ex cathedra) tomorrow before Congress when he will enlighted the assembled lawmakers about the FOMC outlook for the economy and interest rates over the remander of the year. In advance of that testimony trading shorts are busy covering.
source:Acrossthecurve.com
Nice calm EOD above 951, dollar could have more weakness tomorrow, ES rsing AH, more upside to come…OR…..A rise and fall PM. DUnno. Held all positions. Have a great night. Martini time (switched from Kettle One to Select. Save $$$$)
I’m going to look around for a new site where there is more balance. I’ll check back in from time to time. I wish everyone here the best of luck in your future trading.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
Via con Dios, Morris. Everyone needs a break from this site. I got pretty beat up today on my shorts just not ready to jump on the bull wagon.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
recession is over according to this ……
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMKZYfjyvGek
July 20th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
sounds strange but by Morris calling it quits it might be the type of capitulation I have been looking for…thanks for for throwing in the towel…now I know its safe to get into the water and get short….lol
July 20th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Do share what you find out there … you have been one of the bulls bringing balance here
July 20th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
GLT you Morris.
Check out the evilspeculator.com. Quality site, with a bear slant, but the dude is all about making correct decisions and making money. He has been spot on for most of the decline and the subsequent rally. Some good stuff there.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
I know a couple of other people have also been seeing some other sights for more bullish inputs …. can you share some that have worked well …. Ve or Valerie … I think you had mentioned finding some good one out there …
July 20th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
I have appreciated your posts.
July 20th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
I agree – well articulated bullish balance. …. I hope you stay ..
July 20th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
Thanks Morris–appreciate your input and wish you continued success! What you may or may not realize is that some on this site are looking for bottoms or future trends, not necessarily trading intraday. Although I have done both, it has become apparent that a micro approach is not acceptable. In looking at various charts, long term is becoming more viable (for me). Making a reasonable return now depends on how much you are vested, along with holding period. I am personally becoming more bearish on these charts–may just join Uner in the garden, although tennis is what I prefer.
Texas Instruments (TXN.N) on Monday posted a drop in quarterly profits as chip demand fell along with sales of cellphones and other electronics due to the weak economy, but it said sales would improve this quarter.