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29
Oct
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Follow me on twitter: korenidan87
3:48pm
Market pushed away from wedge resistance.. RIGHT on point… so now we can start moving stops to the double top area.
2:46pm
Taking a nice short SPY here at 106.60 with a stop at $107.10 for now…
2:40pm
106.77 on the SPY is where i see the 200 SMA 60 minute and the wedge resistance colliding… i like that as a possible short intraday play.
2:24pm
Technically speaking.. the XLF is forming a potential H&S on the 60 minute. That said, even if it is forming this bearish pattern, it’s right shoulder can possibly be much much bigger…
2:15pm
If you want to short the market.. this is the place to short.. with a stop up above. The bears are still holding to wedge prior support now resistance.
12:49pm
We are right now at the wedge resistance area…still 0.1-0.3% away. But the market has had a very bullish day (as we expected) and even though shorting here might be a good trade, make sure you have a stop because the bulls can technically continue this market rally. BIDU to me looks like a better short.
12:33am
We have GDP numbers coming up tomorrow, I believe these GDP numbers will be better than expected, and might help us bounce. A fall on these numbers would do a lot more damage, because we sit on some megaphone/channel type of pattern on the SPX.. and the Dow is also very close to support on it’s own megaphone. Take a look at the SPX 120 minute, you can see we sit on support and could rise to retest 1051 as resistance. As a bear, you should be shorting at 1051, with a tight stop, and at 1061 or wedge resistance at 1065. Breaking back into the wedge will turn me into a short term bull again:
Starbucks (SBUX) although is still overbought is no longer worth shorting (unless you are in the position already) .. we might see some a small bounce begin sometime tomorrow. If we get a 2-3% bounce in the next few days, you can short it again.
AMZN november short 120 calls (Sold for around 5.90 a contract on average)… I still think AMZN is not going to hold these levels… BIDU managed to retrace a nice 50% of it’s fall.. i went short this name at 395.50 today.. but i have a stop right overhead (398.50$) and will look to get short at 405 if i get stopped out.
GOOG short november 580 calls… well this trade was just perfect, the chance of us getting to 580 now by OPEX is very small (sold for 4.80 contract)
I have some other small positions that are very insignificant like Short CERN which I recommended at 83$ but I only took less than 0.5% of a position (obviously went very well)… but i will update you guys on all positions that I see starting to show up as we might be starting P3 here, things are still very very overbought, and I don’t see any VERY oversold stocks (not on the oversold list yet).
Oops, JPM breaking out of rising wedge resistance. This is the second time I have seen a stock doing that (first is MMM). I am considering getting out of JPM at break-even or sell my JPM NOV 44 calls if JPM continues to bust towards $48 and buy JPM DEC 48 calls.
owwie!
Holding with crazy bear conviction. I stopped some time this afternoon on part of my position but im still holding, and looking to re-enter short. Any big push above 1070 will force me to cover, but im still green on my trades for now.
That should be the end of the rally for today by my estimation. Violent and none to comfortable for my FAZ position but I’m still in the profit area and won’t sell unless we print 1065. I have added to my EUR/USD short.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
be careful with FAZ unless you have stoploss take the profit…
October 29th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
Thx but not worried. Nothing on my chart is signalling to me we are starting another big upswing. But as I mentioned if we print 1065 today I’ll exit the position and wait.
My EUR/USD trade is the one I keep closer tabs on. We lined up nicely with striking the back test trend line on the spx as well as the 38.2% backtest on the EUR/USD pair I was trying to get a couple days ago and missed by a few pips.
I am prepared to exit my positions when the signals go against my expectations but for now I’m staying where I’m at.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
BKX currenlty at 43.32 which is resistance. If it crosses, next is 44-47-44.5 . If it crosses, then no stoppage till 45.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
reversed after tagging 44.32. Previously I meant 44.32 not 43.32
good place to look to short…..writing some calls here, and buying some puts on EEM. be short and be strong!
if it breaks south of 1062, i’m going to just take profits on my call position. it’s fine if it goes higher.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
woo, what’s going on with JPM busting through its rising wedge resistance
?
I should have held on to SSO a little longer this morning.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
5 minute 50ma, 200ma, fib, and trend line are at 1058.
if 1060.8 breaks, we’ll head there.
still hoping for 1065, but we might not get it if we keep consolidating below 1062.8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zdz88MBWomo
Dear AMZN, your stock has been trading for ever and ever under 110 (Split adjusted). Now all of a sudden you can’t trade between 110-120. Please come on down you can do it. The water is fine…
October 29th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
amzn is PLAYING with the fib right now. this is the moment of truth. if it dips just a bit lower from where it is, you’re going to get the request you want…
alright i sold my call position at the 1062 break. good times. been a great week so far.
will wait for 1058 to consider another call position.
Short COCO
Super strong market, higher unemp numbers and COCO down 16% from stronger open on
high volume?
Suspect someone knows something and this is head to single digits.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Earnings:
Corinthian Colleges Inc Reports Q1 $0.37 v $0.28e, R$389M v $378Me
- See Q3 student start growth of +10-12%
- Sees FY10 student start growth of +11-13% (prior 10-12% y/y given 8.25)
- Guides Q2 EPS $0.37-0.40 v $0.32e, Rev (+10-12% y/y) $395-405M v $397Me
- Raises FY10 EPS guidance to $1.58-1.60 v $1.35e ($1.30-1.36 prior)
- Raises FY10 Rev guidance $1.62-1.64B v $1.6Be ($1.58-1.60B prior)
- CEO: Our strong first quarter results primarily reflect the continued success of our initiatives to enhance the student experience and improve operational performance”
I want to share with you has to do with something called cycle translation. Cycles are measured from low to low. With the 4-year cycle we know that since 1896 this cycle has averaged 47 months in duration. The mid point of this cycle is therefore approximately 23 months. So, any cycle that tops out to the left of this center point is considered a left translated cycle and any cycle that tops out to the right of the center point is a right translated cycle. Of course the exact mid point is not actually known until a cycle has actually bottomed, but this can be used as a rough guide.
—————————————————————————————————————————-
If the market bottoms out 4 trading days before it’s expected value–so far it looks like October 28th, S&P 1042 is the bottom– it means the bulls are just that powerful .. This is the first cycle I’ve seen that has bottomed out 4 trading days before it’s theoretical value (ok i’m calling the bottom early as Nov.3rd has not reached yet.. the bears still have Friday and Monday to push the market down A.S.A.P below 1042. Let’s see what Friday and Monday brings.. It should be very interesting. Keep an eye out on 1042. One would atleast want a re-test of this number..
October 29th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Thanks for the explanation…no how many left and right translated cycles did we have so far since 1896. One would think 4 days should be within the margin of error?
October 29th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
I need to see SPX 1014 broken by November 3/4 to be fully bearish, otherwise I am going to keep my portfolio slightly biased towards the long side hedge. The farther away from my decline date, the lower the probability is for me to be successful on a short trade, and I will not hesitate to close my positions for a profit even if that means I might miss further gains.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
smart man. profit is profit. good luck. thanks for the updates.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
could nov. 3 be a cycle high if we rally 5 percent from here.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Jon, for a 4-year cycle the margin of error is likely to be quite large.. being +/- 7 months for 95% of the cases. This is just a rough estimate.
For the upcomming 10/03 date, it is the 6-week cycle low.. 66% of the time the market will bottom within 2 days of the value. You are correct to point out that 4 days out is not an outlier but it is still a rare occurence.. and one will only be able to tell in December 2009 if it truly was predictive of the beginning of a strong bull run..
Paul, if we manage to break 1100 by November 3rd, we could be putting in a inversion, when the market tops whereas theoretically it should be bottoming. If it happens, it could mean the BULL is dead.. however, that’s only if we pullback post-Nov3rd.
just added 1000 QID @ 23.00 and I’m now done for the day (both trading and posting)
best of luck to all!
were are the bear’s…? 2% in the S&P….
October 29th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
bernanke said the recession is over, woo hoo.
October 29th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
lol, probably shorting AMZN
I need to see VIX holding above 24.83; otherwise, I’ll go pick up SSO at EOD to hedge.
October 29th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
there goes the vix below 24.83
October 29th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
Yup, some SSO calls right here.
Huge up day for me today. Yesterday and daybefore I loaded up on ABX (Barricks Gold) shares and AA (Aloca) calls. Decided to go 95% long. I believed in the fundamentals of those 2 stocks and decided to buy on dips. Its tough to do so with market in a free fall.
I enjoy this site and am very impressed by the analysis from many of you – especially the ones that post your trades.
if we get back into the wedge today that would be bullish?
October 29th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
i need my amzn 150 calls to pay off come one amzn lol hahaha
recession is over… depression is starting… … i can not be positive… about that..
idan… xlf @ (38.2%) …
Careful guys, just listened to a phone in stock show and 9 of 10 callers looking at doub inverse
short stocks.
You all know what that means, melt up to sp1200
October 29th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
no to 1120
October 29th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
we are back in the wedge lets see if it can hold
October 29th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
maybe right on it
After lot of struggle BSK went north of 44.32. Next leve 44.47-45
October 29th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
44.47-44.5
October 29th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Still holding FAS… BKX marching my order. Will see if i close it at EOD
this market should end hod any opinions on that
October 29th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
up 250 points on the dow should scare the shorts
October 29th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Yep, and we will get it and maybe more. The next announcement will be the continuation of the homebuyers tax credit extension. That should prop things up at least a few more days.
Any opinions on LVS? I’m thinking about getting some Nov 14 puts at $1.15……. TIA
October 29th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
no longer on the overbought list.. i wouldn’t touch it..
October 29th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
ok thank you idan
October 29th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Idan,
Why did you go short on S&P when this morning you said if we broke wedge it is a Bull sign?
October 29th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
We did not break wedge..
Still 100% short. Just added a small amount more to my FAZ. I believe there will be a sell off into the close and tomorrow will erase today’s gains and more.
This reversal is too powerful to be a one day move. Usually, the market bottoms out over 3 to 4 days and then changes direction. This reversal is also on high volume. It tells me that many bulls were patiently waiting for the market make a short term bottom and when they sensed it, they jumped in. I think SPX has at least 20 to 30 points on the upside from where it is now
October 29th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
i would not doubt it
October 29th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Volume is not that high, and I highly doubt we’ll be seeing even a 10 point gain on the SPX from here.
October 29th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
oh ye of little faith…
beware of the bull, remember there was a very long trend line from december that hasn’t broken yet.
i have no positions going into tomorrow, but i am definitely not leaning towards a long term bear bias at the moment…
October 29th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
Appreciate the warning woo, I see your very respected on this board and appreciate your taking the time to reply. I just feel we’re so overbought and overvalued that a correction is needed and will come. Tomorrow will be key, if I’m right, the pullback continues. If it doesn’t I’ll re-evaluate.
October 29th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
right now the longer term charts aren’t too overbought. the 5 minute maybe a little bit. for the short side, i’ll wait for 1045 to break. this trend line will get higher as the days go on though. there’s a lot of resistance in the 1068-1072 level so it might be a lot of consolidation there and a battle between bull and bear.
i’ll consider buying at the break of that area either call/put. i might just sit out all friday and wait till next week for further confirmation. good luck!
1065-1068! yay!
October 29th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
between 1068-1072 there are 5-6 fibs sitting around…
also a long term fib at 1065.34 – this is the current area to watch. the avgs set up a market there nicely already, so there’s no need for any more rising and the chart will still look really pretty.
October 29th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
woo,
what do you think of VISA? top of fib levels…
October 29th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
this is hitting a long term trend line and some fib projections as well. might bounce south from here…
maybe to 76 or 75. hard to say. but slightly longer term it might go to at least 85.80s or so.
October 29th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
78.4 was the resistance area by the way.
October 29th, 2009 at 11:25 pm
master woo…can you provide a chart as to what you said?? i like to follow it. thanks
Out of FAS… BKX below 44.32
—- URE — all i did this morning is buy some ot this. i had a decent order for DRE calls that had only 1 contract fill …. but that’s ok. im a bit confused on this market. best to be trading light. — DRE — reports today.
—- IBOC — unloaded those stubborn puts today. glad to only take a small loss.
there is ZERO confirmation of a new down trend as proof from the 50ma. no 2 bar break. a simple full bar reversal has occurred. im long URE and have some FUN puts.
Idan, I follow you for ~ 6 months, and found high percent your prediction is correct. Yesterday, you said short Bidu which is topping at~ 395. When big market moves up today, bidu is down, this prediction amazed me. On which base you made such a prediction on Bidu? l
October 29th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
Well we look at Fib retracements and general market behavior and the fact that BIDU was on the overbought list due to a few factors including stochastic, valuations, macd, bullinger bands, and comparative studies with its peers.
And here’s the sell off as expected.
October 29th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
the bull will run you over the bear will tear your heart out, but there is always another trade.
October 29th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
ok Tom
October 29th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
everybody run the sell off is here
good amount of support here on the 5 minute chart. fib and trend line, the 50ma is coming up to meet it as well.
————— YAY for URE ——————- PROFITABLE DAY …. im betting on US Commercial Real Estate companies.. plug my nose and buy. did some research but im balanced long and short and have jack squat for positions. FEEL 100% BETTER …. no more 20% gap ups for me. going to trade for fun for a bit and not watch all day.
DRE reports after hours
believe MAC reports soon too after over-subscribing thier first equity issue in a while.
October 29th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
URE & MPG are the plays here. Commercial realty crash will happen when no one
is looking for it. I feel SRS is supporting CRE.
A great majority of small investors are looking at a large correction and have
bought puts or inversers. that is a sure sign we are going to 1200. And
the screaming midget sees the rally as over, done finished and time to sell.
Cramer is the sure wrong money index.
October 29th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
Bernanke has said on more than several occasions that saving the commercial real estate market is his top priority. But he has been saying that since March or so. I wonder how much money is willing to pump into this beast when the time comes.
October 29th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
It should be fun on Cramer show today. he was calling for a correction in 7-10% range.
October 29th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
Market went up just like i said it would in chapter 8 of my book. . . getting back
to being a crook on cnbc.
LVS loses more than projected but sores in a/h on bennies roulette table?
Had to go long at close, todays bs rally tells me they will stop at nothing to drive
this sob to 12000 and beyond. That GS release of a lowball GDP to trap the
shorts is sign of things to come. Next, more crash for trash homes cars or whatever and the market can drive higher.
Remember, end of month and friday always = rally of 400 points on nothing.
October 29th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
Maybe 275 at best but 400???
Glad I was so busy today not to look at this tape. My recent trades are still green however.
I am not worried sitting heavily short yet, I refuse to get trapped in this short trade though, and will am prepared to get stopped out (AGAIN).