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30
Oct
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Follow me on twitter: korenidan87
3:50pm
Even though I believe more downside will continue next week, a 1-2 day retracement is possible… But I’m not buying into monday… we might have one more swoosh lower before that happens.
3:07pm
Stopped out at 188.75$… very nice trade here with a nice 0.4-0.5% profit .. on $189,560… a nice 700$ trade in a few minutes.
3:05pm
Or not… moving stop with this market to 188.75$.
3:04pm
Stop now at $189.15… i’ll sit on this one for a while.
3:03pm
STOP now at $189.20.
3:02pm
STOP at now $189.45.. profitable no matter what.
3:00pm
Short AAPL at 189.56. 1000 shares.
2:53pm
Stopped out of AAPL at -0.01%… I’ll put back a position apon a break of the 189.60 level.
2:47pm
Stopped out of AMZN short today.. very nice profit…. will look to re-enter after a retrace higher. Movign stop of AAPl from $190.3 to $189.90.
2:44pm
Took a small short in AAPL for an intraday trade here $189.90… stop at 190.3$
2:18pm
So close to getting stopped out.. but now we’re back down again!!! 114 will be very strong support.. but until then.. who knows… I’m okay with being stopped out, but i’ll probably re-enter short again at some point.
2:10pm
Very visible inverse H&S on the 1 and 5 minute SPY…. we could be going in for a small retracement… I’m very close to getting stopped out of AMZN too.. but hey great trades today!
2:02pm
I got stopped out of BIDU as i expected… good nice profit today on that name… AMZN still shorting this one.
1:36pm
BIDU is now capitulating… you want to keep TIGHTER stops when this happens because we can get a reversal..
1:17pm
While I wouldn’t be shorting into the close here… i would not recommend buying here either… Yesterday was a perfect bull trap, and so today’s action can continue into next week.
1:06pm
After 6 months (since april) my personal portfolio just hit new highs for the year at 103.97% YTD. I remain short holding the AMZN short and BIDU short as i continue to move the stops down… we look like we are forming another bear flag on both names. I like my GOOG NAKED short on november calls, my AMZN NAKED short on november calls (all are out of the money) which means as long as it stays like this on OPEX, i just make premium of $4.80 on GOOG and $5.90 on AMZN a contract.
12:47pm
I have no words, I can’t believe how beautiful this wedge resistance worked out… You fall below, retest and then crash back down. Perfect!
12:02pm
Both AMZN and BIDU look very very weak right here as they are slowly breaking their respective support levels.
11:38am
A break of 1051 on the SPX, would mean that yesterday was a beautiful bull trap (just like we expected would happen soon)and that we have in fact broken the wedge and have started a corrective downtrend to say the least… We still have some strong support levels below us, but this is definitely the first strong sign.
11:19am
Update on short stock positions ** AMZN short at $122… as mentioned 10 minutes ago**, ** BIDU short at $393.80**
11:14am
Even though I sold some naked calls on AMZN already which is a very very bearish play, i’m taking small shorts on this name as well as long as today remains as a DOJI candle or something more bearish.
11:06am
Even though BIDU is somewhat holding on to these 390+ levels… a break underneath and it’s moving down another leg lower. I do have a short position on this name already..
10:14am
Just wanted to show you that AMZN is forming a triangle on the 10 minute… usually that would be bullish after a massive rally, but this rally also shoved AMZN into an incredibly overbought status:
9:42am
Huge up candle here stopped out at 160.20 (+0.3%). But as long as we stay under the wedge i’m in the bearish camp.
9:36am
I’m liking the early weakness on AMZN today… that’s good, 120 has to break for AMZN to start falling hard. I am putting a trailing stop on my SPY short @ 106.60, of about 40 cents.
9:33am
Moving stops on all my shorts to profitable areas here… i’m now profitable no matter what.
3:04am
Let’s not forget the jobs number at 8:30am , but the market yesterday retested wedge support as resistance with the 200 SMA 60 minute all at 106.77 (that was the high, as i called out in the intraday). We went short at these levels… and placed a stop around that area. We have to slightly raise the stop to around 1067.50 because wedge former support keeps rising. However, if the market holds below that resistance we could see the bears pile in. I like short below wedge support, and long above it.. 1070 is also a very strong fib retracement.
The daily and intraday price action reminds me of Oct ‘87 just before the huge crash of 23%
in one day. High margin debt, huge over bullish sentiment and a rally of 60% which ran out
of steam.
Back then the market would fall 2-3% without reason and then climb by an equal amount
without cause. IMO we are headed into the same mindless crash setup.
October 30th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Woah! You must of researched/worked pretty close with the banks to know how much debt retail accounts took out prior to Oct 87. And I didn’t even know bullish sentiment indicators were released back in 1987! What is this crash scenario you talk off? A 5% correction? A 50% correction? Do you really think the Govt wants the Market to fall right before Christmas where retailers cash-in $ and will employ people too? BTW you must have a very good memory if you can remember the price action of October 1987.. that was 30 years ago. you must be THE Stock Trader Guru.
Everybody’s talking about a crash..
It’s time to be Mr. Contrarion !!!!!!
October 30th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
Agreed re: everyone talking about a crash. Took small positions on FAS and SPY at close on the bet that this won’t bear out in the near term (pun intended — and lame, I know). We’ll see…
October 30th, 2009 at 6:25 pm
I also remember the violent reversals that preceeded the crash of ‘87. I was very new to investing and figured out that a crash was likely on Thursday night or Friday morning, so I bought AAPL Put options and made $30,000 on $6000 and cashed out on Tuesday morning. I paid dearly for that newbie luck by frequently taking bearish positions in the 90s.
October 31st, 2009 at 2:58 am
All the BEARS look very exited about a great day to the downside-they should be since its been while we saw one.
The talk of a crash is just amusing to me. In this electronic age there will be no crash like the 87 or the 29, it is just not possible. Slow bleeding maybe but not outright crash.
Those who think retail investors will sell in a panic are just dreaming. Majority of the retail investors are out of the market due to lack of funds.
IMHO watch the dollar!
that was the 4th reversal since last wed…8 trading days. very bearish.
THE COVER UP !!!!
Mary Shapiro current o’banana SEC chief was named a ‘dear friend’ by Madoff and she may
have assisted him in ponzy by calling off investigators. She was with FINRA at the time.
The madoff cover up will soon be fully exposed, Arthur Levitt and Shapiro will be linked to
Madoff next week, stay tooned !!!!
lmao this is how the bear’s felt today lmao
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr8PX7P6gsQ&feature=player_embedded
October 30th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
this is what the bull-sheep felt. Right before they went off the cliff with the eagle.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEau4wC51m0&NR=1
this isn’t pretty. Eagle takes a mtn. goat for lunch….
Any one see that the VIX took out 23 weeks….thats right weeks of decline in one day.
Where have you seen that before.
Get ready to rumble!
October 30th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
I’ve been tracking the vix for a week, and was planning on going with Jan and Feb 40 and 50 calls. They offered huuuuuuge leverage…up until Tuesday!
VIX stayed over 40 for many months and I suspected that the Boyz with Fed help will keep this market inflated thru year;s end.
My small position (only 18 of 50 filled) Nov 30 calls today are up almost 100%. I’ll sell calls against them to lock in gains depending on how Monday rolls, and I’ll then play for a bounce.
By my reading, it is said that the VIX offers a 4x leverage vs the S&P. Not for the faint of heart, but if/when P3 comes into effect, it may spike to over 100, and cruise above 50 – 60 for several white-knuckle months.
As of today’s close, my portfolio is up more than $70,000 since shorting on October 19.
More short orders got filled after I went to my meeting, but luckily I had a chance to sneak out for 5 minutes to get my protective calls entered
Shares short going into the open: JPM, AXP, HD, DOW, VALE
Shares shorted when I was in a meeting (love auto-exec): DIS, INTC, AA, BA, DD, CVX, JNJ, CM.TO, RY.TO, SLF.TO, TD.TO
I bought protective calls plus those hedging calls I posted earlier. I setup my porfolio so that I don’t care what happens on Monday. Give me a squeeze I make money; give me a crash I make money.
Why I bought more calls towards EOD? The VIX and the Dollar both locked in a “sell” signal. That combined with positive divergence I saw in the final 90 minutes of action tells me to be prepared for the FED to paint the tape higher.
My ultimate target for this next move higher only goes into SPX 1060 (DOW 9850), at which point I will go fully hedged short again.
I do not plan on dumping any of my shares short from this point onward until September 2010. I will only go double call if I sense an upturn is to come. My reasoning is simple: short-selling may be banned (meaning no new short sales). I’d rather open my shares short before regulations kick in, plus I get to keep all the cash up front instead of locking in my cash in the derivatives.
P.S. I am in the process of creating my own blog that will focus on how to use technical analyses properly. When that’s done I will post a link here. Unfortunately, I will have to use subscriptions (they’ll be free for basic TA information) to keep out any yahooligan.
October 30th, 2009 at 8:20 pm
You are a trading badass!
October 30th, 2009 at 10:44 pm
Should be neat to see! Good job.
A ban on short selling? What? Man that would kill my job.. #!@#
October 30th, 2009 at 11:47 pm
Thanks Fritz–nice to follow a true trader. Am on vacation (overlooking Monterey Bay), up significant monies with the help of your posts. Also, hope you charge for blog–better quality!!!
my IRA up 30% in Oct. with just long in SSO and then SDS. Let’s see if I can do that next month,,,then the next month,,,then the next…
I don’t think I can do the math on that. lol
Congrats Idan, Morris, Fritz,,,et al. on your fine gains this year.
October 31st, 2009 at 1:03 am
Well, although I had a great week to end the month, October as a whole was not so good for me. Actually, it sucked! I had two weeks in the middle of the month where I made some horrible trades; I really lost focus for about 2 weeks and paid for it. Anyway, since I post my successes and failures, here is what I have for the past three months (and all of the trades were posted here in the intraday blogs):
10 for 10 on trades closed in August for a profit of $23,070.00
6 for 6 on trades closed in September for a profit of $19,760.00
9 for 13 on trades closed in October for a loss of $1540.00
total profit on closed trades for the 3-month period = $41,290.00
The only position I have now is QID (4000 shares). Best of luck to all in the coming month!