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04
Nov
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8:16pm
People know that I hedge my bank accounts (CD) with 20% GOLD… well today i took it all off… after it rallied from 970 to 1100… I think deflation will remain over the longer term.. and even if inflation rises 2-3%, I made a nice 11-13% on my GOLD trade which will hedge my CDs for at least a 12-24 months of inflation.
5:13pm
I’m short 1000 shares of SPY at $105.17 into tomorrow. Have a great day!
4:30pm
Shorting afterhours makes sense to me.. even if you get stopped out tomorrow… the Bears won today, and that keeps P3 options in play, and a move to 1020-1025 more likely now, as SPX ends below 1052 in a reversal day.
2:45pm
Here is the SPY 10 minute… look at levels.. we are trying to break 1061 again.. not sure if we can make it.. but definitely a level to watch. The dollar i also falling on H&S formation… unless it rallies back above the 22.50 level soon it might be broken:
2:39pm
Does anybody have a list of VERY VERY Overbought stocks? and VERY VERY Oversold stocks?
2:33pm
Stopped out of my other puts at 1.33… so nice 12% there..
2:29pm
If market holds the bearishness under 1051-1052 here.. i’ll be adding a lot of puts at days end!
2:22pm
We finally hit the 1052 as support again… now we can bounce… but if 1052 breaks.. be careful to the downside, if 1061 breaks careful to the upside! FED to hold rates for EXTENDED period of time… is not necessarily good for the markets. People were hoping to see some sign of life…
2:20pm
Huge rise.. and huge decline in the markets.. and now stabilizing.. let’s wait this one before picking a side (like i said before).
2:18pm
We continue to wait for the FED, which is taking it’s sweet ass time… (excuse my language)… the volatility is huge though, the options that usually have 1 cent spreads have 8-10 cent spreads… dollar is declining though.. that could be a sign of a move higher..
1:50pm
Get ready for the 2pm-2.15pm reversal…. where do we go from here?? if today ends BELOW 1052… I expect a big down day tomorrow.. if it ends above 1061.. i expect a big upday tomorrow. Anything in between would make me slightly bullish but not confident enough to buy calls.
1:22pm
Always wise to lock in some profits before a market changing event such as the Fed Meeting at 2:15pm… taking half off of my PUT position at $1.27 here (++8%).. the rest i’m stopping it at 1.10 (hence i’d be up no matter what)..
12:53pm
The Financials are close to reversing lower here… they are not enjoying the same rally.. that’s putting a burden on this rally.
12:27pm
GOOG has been consolidating above the resistance line, which is technically a bullish sign, however, if you zoom in and look at a 1 minute-2minute you would see that the consolidation is actually a head and shoulders. How do you play this? Anyway you want… just put a tight stop, and you might be in for some good money. I love these types of set-ups.
12:05pm
I placed my SPY 103 Strike Price PUTS back on at $105.91… $1.17 a contract.
11:55am
I got stopped out of my put SPY position flat… but i still recommend trying to short the SPY on a small position because 1061 is hard to break.. and we failed to do it already.
11:28am
I got stopped out of GOOG with the 0.01% profit… this stock can still go higher after a possible retracement.
11:25am
If you wish, you can raise the stops a little bit on GOOG… although it looks promising if it can break $545..
11:18am
I am not sure which direction we are going, but even though the SPY pulled back a little… GOOG is outperforming momentarily… i’m putting a stop at $544.35 to break even no matter what (+0.01% at least). These prices that i talk about when i put a stop are the ASK not the BID.
11:09am
As woo suggested… I’m adding a little bit of puts here.. as 1061 level held.. and putting a stop above it. This means i’m actually slightly hedged with my GOOG long vs SPY put position at the moment. Let’s not forget that I also sold GOOG calls a long time at the 580 strike, and AMZN at 120…
10:53am
Into Google at $544.10 with 150 shares. GOOG is also overbought on the very short term scale so a retracement is very possible… STOP is at $542.30… if it gets hit… just walk out.. and wait for another break of that resistance level, which could happen even today. A break of 545 however, would be the ultimate sign that GOOG is ready to jump.
10:52am
GOOG is now breaking it’s resistance.. or at least trying to… a break of that would lead to a nice short term intraday long trade.. here we go:
9:53am
A break of 41.10 on the USO (oil) would probably bring us to the highs again, or 41.50-41.60.
9:44am
Yesterday, we saw GS break it’s first resistance line, putting it back in a descending wedge formation… that was the first hint for going long GS… but if you’re hoping GS 60 min would do a strong fib retrace, you want to see the second resistance of the wedge break at 175ish today:
9:39am
Here are the SPY 60 minute fib retracements assuming 1029 was the short term bottom… you can see where the strong resistances lie:
9:34am
If we hold 1052… 1061 is the next level to watch out for, but so far 1052 is very strong.
9:29am
The SPX is about to open above the 1052 level.. however i suggest to not go long at the start of the day, wait a little bit and let the market digest… it might just start at 1054 and shoot down below 1052 in a few seconds.
12:37am
Today is fed meeting, so i would keep positions about 1/2 the size of what they usually are. Even if things seem SO SURE to you, you should refrain from playing big money today. As you can see in the SPY 10 minute chart, it looks like we are in a bear flag formation (governed by the two green ascending lines). A break of either green line should provide a bigger push in the trending direction. There is also a bigger channel governed by the Red descending resistance and the Blue descending support. If the red resistance breaks we should get another push higher (i would go long). Although rememeber that 1052 is a very important level, and will NOT be broken easily. I would go long after 1052 is broken as well, otherwise my target of 1023 still stands.
This market seems to be in a range, i almost think we are going lower after tomorrow. Then again, there are a lot of data that can change things. This morning, the UK bank bail out 2 was saved by buffet. These news seem to cancel things out.
I think the biggest driver to come are the states, they are bankrupt, and they are going to start to look just like the banks.
Well just got home for the day job. I see that the dollar decided to fall a bit more then I had anticipated. Looks like instead of just a back test of the short term EUR/USD 61.8% fib , we are going to back test the long term bullish trend line that was broken.
A recovery of this trend line tonight would force me to unwind my position. I am not overly worried about this atm because so far all we have gotten today was a bounce off the bottom of the bearish channel which I expected (just not quite this strong of a bounce).
I still favor a move down in the EUR/USD to the long term 38.2% fib 1.42742 area. That is the alignment of a couple massive fibs which would provide excellent support for a bounce. It would also coincide nicely with a move to the 1020 area of the spx I believe. This is what I have been playing for and this is what I will continue to wait for. When we get there then , I will reverse to bearish on the dollar and move from FAZ->FAS (well maybe UYG will have to decide at that point).
From the EOD data on the three major index and majority of the DOW 30 stocks, I only see one thing: if there is a dip tomorrow with the ADP report, that might be the last chance to get out of your unhedged shorts if you didn’t short near the short term top (1098 – 1101). The actions, the fractals, the similarities to July 10 cannot be ignored. Just my 2 cents.
I am holding my short shares, but that’s only because they’re protected by call options (plus I shorted near the short term top), and I hold several additional call options making my portfolio slightly bullish biased with limited risk. Like I said yesterday, a sudden crash will be the only way to wipe out all of the bullish signals, and it must take place tomorrow. The probability of a sudden crash tomorrow is only 7%.
For EW traders hoping to ride out wave 2 in preparation for wave 3, just keep in mind that wave 2 has all the potential to wipe out all of your gains from wave 1.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:03 am
are you saying that wave 2 could go all the way back up above 1200 on the s and p.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:18 am
Those who follow EW thoery believe we are in Primary Wave 3.
Sub Wave 1 is Down (1100 to 1029).
Sub Wave 2 is the correction wave (the rally)..
November 4th, 2009 at 2:24 am
oh thanks, i thought this was the full down wave we had from last year. but he was talking about this last down move.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:29 am
I’m not looking for a move to 1200 on the SPX, but I am looking for a QUICK move up. This would probably cause a panic short covering. What about a positive FOMC announcement? How about a good jobs report on Thursday? If the SPX shoots up to 1075 with two bars, that will correct the current oversold condition, which is what I really like to see.
All previous major declines I attempted front running turned into minimum 10-15% decliners. Even if the market shoots up quickly to 1075 and then starts going lower again, that will fit nicely with my projection for the rest of 2009. With data ending in the first week of December I will be able to identify the exact start dates of the next two major ones (potentially W3 of P3 and W5 of P3, if you believe that we’re in P3). Time will tell if I actually shorted at the top of P2.
What I laid out as a possibility last week is that the market may have already printed its short term low at 1029 – 1033 (by November 3), and then a rise to 1075 by November 10 (or earlier), and then a scary drop into Black Friday. That drop, if it happens, will probably stop approximately 3 days prior to Black Friday, and followed by an engineered pump ending at market close on Black Friday. A drop into first week of December is possible, and then a Santa rally. However, for the first time that I recall, we may have a Christmas crash. We’ll see.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:46 am
I have the market making a very big top either December 1st 2009 or December 30th 2009.
A short-term Top will be made around Nov 17(+/-2tradingdays)
November 4th, 2009 at 9:26 am
Zee – Thanks for your excellent analysis on cycles. I find it works quite well and take it into account when I make a decision to buy or sell.
November 4th, 2009 at 10:46 am
I favor this scenario…www.safehaven/article-14917.htmj
November 4th, 2009 at 10:47 am
scratch the j at the end of that address
Looks like minute wave [ii]. Still targeting mid 1060’s to re-enter most of my short position that I took off Monday.
Idan, in premarket, SPY already reach 105.26 on the resist level. In such a case, should market go to north?
November 4th, 2009 at 9:44 am
Cash has already passed that by 3 full points. Expect a strong spike up on open
followed by a 50% retrace and rally after about 11AM.
Fed will throw dollar to the wolves with announc’t and my feel they may make a sur-
prise announc’t that QE to be extended by 90 days and to include CMR.
Dollar will drop like a rock which is what ben wants so buy gold or sliver.
Careful, if oil tops 83.23 today market will tank due to breakout in energy complex
which may take oil back up to 105 on very short term. High oil is last thing the usa
needs.
November 4th, 2009 at 9:57 am
I was thinking the same thing!
November 4th, 2009 at 10:41 am
I would wait… the market can start higher but shoot down lower before 10 minutes are over.
GS, please reach 176 today
It looks like I shouldn’t have sold my ERX yesterday. Oh well, it was intended to be a 24-hour trade and I played it as intended. I may look to get back in around 44.00 if we see it today. Best of luck to all today!
November 4th, 2009 at 10:06 am
You booked profits!!! I will enter once the oil inventory report comes out today at 10:30
November 4th, 2009 at 10:13 am
Yep, it was a good start for the month. Looking at UCO/SCO this morning but I just don’t have any sense as to where we go from here in the short term. What are your thoughts?
November 4th, 2009 at 10:16 am
Jon – looks like we have a triangle breakout on UCO
If we can get and stay above 14.36, then I think we may get our 15 on UCO – still holding
November 4th, 2009 at 10:49 am
Yes I am still holding…It looks like MM is trying to bring OIL down before inventory report. In the past I have noticed the same behavior and it jumped after the report. Lets see wht happens today-maybe they break the trend today
Morris, If I was starting fresh I would not buy UCO now I will wait till the end of the daty and see how the news plays out. As you know I am bullish on oil long term
November 4th, 2009 at 10:52 am
Thanks for the advice. This could be a crazy day in the market so I may just take the day off (especially since it is my really busy day at work). It’s hard to sit on the sidelines though.
Best of luck to you and Anjali in the UCO trade today!
November 4th, 2009 at 11:06 am
Thanks
November 4th, 2009 at 11:06 am
Can you explain what you mean by MM trying to bring oil down ?
November 4th, 2009 at 11:28 am
Market makers pulling oil back to draw in shorts prior to release of invents
and squeeze on news.
Same is done with stocks any time rally is extended or tired.
November 4th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
Thanks Palladin..
be short and be strong! long a whole bunch of puts on Qs, Spus, and EMs……why? i feel….
Where can I get a real time quote on crude? Does anyone know. Kitco is delayed by 30 minutes. Thanks!
November 4th, 2009 at 11:05 am
yahoo
at 1075 on s and p i will short the crap out of this market
November 4th, 2009 at 11:06 am
or maybe 1120 like zee said
November 4th, 2009 at 11:09 am
lift off
November 4th, 2009 at 11:13 am
I don’t have any targets. All I have is a bull bias until end of month.
How high we go is anyones guess.
remember i said that there was a flare to the 105.5+ area on the SPY 2 days ago that hasn’t played out yet. well it has played out.
November 4th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Woo,
when you get a chance can you look at abk and validate the flare as you explained yesterday. I bought some premarket today so I want to confirm the flare..its on the the 5 min chart
thanks
November 4th, 2009 at 11:36 am
yeah that looks like a pretty big flare on ABK. like i said, not an exact science, and i wouldn’t bet the house on it because depending on the flare and how large it is, it might not play out right away. but that looks like a clear flare to me. but the flare i see happened today.
good luck!
November 4th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Thanks Woo..
November 4th, 2009 at 11:13 am
good M woo,
so…DOWN from here , consolidate…or UP..
i’ve also noticed..generally a run or stall into FOMC then the pop…but the following day usually dictates the move of the fed decision, whether up or down.
whatcha think?
November 4th, 2009 at 11:24 am
there’s a fib at 1059. we crossed MAJOR trend lines on the 1 month, 6 month linear, AND 6 month log charts to get to where we are. this is a very bull move, or a crazy trap set by bears.
there’s also a fib around 1060. so i think we consolidate around here for a while. 5 min 1 month is getting pretty heavily overbought, so if you enter a position under the 1059-1060, it may decay if you have options, or break south a bit to retest some trend lines. this is not an ideal position to get in for a call position. it’s an okay short/put scalp position, but with all the gapping and all the trend line breaks below this area, i would be really worried shorting at the moment.
also, we broke trend lines to hit fibs, which as i’ve mentioned in the past, often happens, and doesn’t necessarily define a strong trend line break.
from the way the chart looks, i would consider looking for a drop to the 1051 level to retest those lines and keep the market fun. a breakout north of 1060 could mean a run up to 1065, but that would start leaning the market bull bias too much.
November 4th, 2009 at 11:18 am
Woo can you define FLARE for everyone.TIA
November 4th, 2009 at 11:20 am
He did I think yesterday
November 4th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Yes he did. And market displayed a downward flare on oil just befor release
to boost pricing on release or spur decline if neg.
Oil will go parabolic on news released. Next short term stop on crude is
90.
C roaring today….its was beaten down for a long time now
November 4th, 2009 at 11:15 am
bought some 11 5 calls at .70
November 4th, 2009 at 11:21 am
Looks like it dipped momentarily before 4 to trigger the stops..
The market could make it all the way to 1065 in one bar. There was a lot of short interest going into today, so a squeeze is underway. Wait for the FOMC meeting announcement, I think we have a good spike up. I am doing well with my long side bias right now.
SPX 1075 will be the place I will enter hedged shorts.
My long-term portfolio is up 11.23% on this first leg up.
It`s mostly due to my SPY calls which are up +28%
Show time….lets see if this rally is sold like the previous 2/3
200 ERX @ 45.00 (I may another 200 later in the day)
November 4th, 2009 at 11:26 am
atta boy! couldnt resist hunh? Morris you should give up teaching and start trading…a sabbatical is in order
November 4th, 2009 at 11:31 am
Ha, I don’t think so. I actually like my job!
November 4th, 2009 at 11:33 am
I was just joking…I would NOT give up my day time job too..but working from home has its privileges
November 4th, 2009 at 11:32 am
BOOYAAA on UCO…congrats anjali
November 4th, 2009 at 11:37 am
Congrats to us for having patience …. so what are you seeing on this now …
Have some NOV 14 UCO calls – so decay has been eating into them …
November 4th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
You have a tough juggling to do….decay can kill you but if jumps you are golden.
I will sell 1/3 around 15
Well nutts. Was forced to unwind my EUR/USD short this morning for a 150% profit , far less then where I was this time yesterday but alas a profit is a profit. I have held my FAZ however. I have also just now reshorted the EUR/USD at the 1.48394 38.2% fib as with the spx hitting a trend line and the pair hitting this fib I expect a little pull back.
I am going to be forced to switch back to a bullish bias for the near term EUR/USD. After going over my charts last night I realize now that I had failed to draw the secondary long term bullish trend line. That is the line the pair bounced off hard. Had I been a smarter monkey and had that line in place and seen the bounce I could have gotten out of my short position with a lot more profit *sniff*.
In any case I would like to see a retest of the 50% fib here (which lines up nicely with the upper bear channel that was broke a few hours ago) before resuming a upward march. I will likely get out of FAZ ( still holding from $18.00 so in good shape) at that 50% fib too I think.
November 4th, 2009 at 11:38 am
very nice! i HATE it when i miss a significant trend line.
November 4th, 2009 at 11:48 am
Yeah I mean 150% profit is nothing to sneeze and it’s overall one of my better currency trades but damn nabit that trend line completely alters my short term bias and that just makes me feel the fool
But in the end I suppose it’s the markets job to humble us just when we think we have a good handle on things 
November 4th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
I am heavily short the EUR/USD but am only down slightly as I enetered at 1.58.
Where do you see the 50% fib coming in?
November 4th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
I have my 50% short term fib @ 1.47708. I think there is decent possibility we are trading in a yet to confirm bearish channel. I’m going to have to watch closely.
November 4th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
What do you guys trade etf or forex?
thanks
November 4th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
UUP for me (USD Bull etf). OR you can use EUO 2X EUR/USD short but the volume is so small I won’t touch it.
1060.4 retrace held.
Hypothetical situation: if the SPX reaches 1068 – 1075 (DOW 10000 – 10050) today or tomorrow, and end the week at the current levels, I will be expecting a drop next week. If we do have that setup by Friday, the bulls will need to pull off a 600+ DOW point upward thrust to break the pattern. With the weekly MACD momentum about to cross over to the negative side, I lean towards a drop next week. Of course if we end up with a failed MACD zero-crossover, we could be staring at SPX 1120 (DOW 10330) by eow next week.
I am going to go way out on a limb and say this doesn’t last and we reverse lower later. There is no reason for this rally today. ISM non-manufacturing/ADP jobs both came in under consensus. Europe PMIs were over consensus which is probably helping the Euro, but if the Fed says anything even remotely hawkish the dollar will rally and the market will be toast.
November 4th, 2009 at 11:51 am
Remember October 2nd? Let the market play this out first. In my observation this rally is to relieve the short term oversold condition (see mmy post above) before a snap move (not certain the direction yet, but I want to short at SPX 1075 with hedges). In all likelihood this upswing is going to hold for two days, or perhaps more. If the market shoots up to 1075 – 1080 with just two daily candles that will be perfect as the stochastic will then display “overbought” status.
November 4th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
http://www.zerohedge.com has some contributions from ICAP…. they are looking for a shot to 1070 to intiate new shorts, I’m not sure whether we quite get there.
November 4th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
Notice however I didn’t say “mark this post”… I find that phrase that I often see on Yahoo finance boards to be intensely annoying.
I believe, as stated this is a minute wave ii might consolidate here, wiggle into the 1060’s, whatever, after this should come minute wave iii down and that should start tomorrow or friday and last over a week.
I will be scaling into my shorts that I took off Monday. We’ll see.
November 4th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Minute wave 3 should blow the shit out of the 1020 support and confirm P3. If we don’t see this over the coming weeks, I might out of my long term shorts because the bull market might not be done. My stops will probably hit anyway if this happens because we’ll see the 1070’s if that’s the case.
Second waves are all about fear. They force you to question your position and doubt yourself. You have to hold with conviction if you want to make money. Or better yet, get out at the bottom of 1 and back in at the top of 2.
easier said than done.
November 4th, 2009 at 11:59 am
That’s what I sense coming, too. I am now watching the weekly charts with great interest. Daily charts offer timing, while the weekly charts indicate to me whether I can retire next year.
Yesterday I posted to go long at the bottom I bought 1000 TNA early at 35.76 and sold at 36.89. I then bought a smaller position of TNA (500 shares for the fun of it) at the close expecting this push higher today today and I am selling right now. After the FOCM at 2:17 we might get another push higher to the 9960’s or even 10000. But I I will be shorting that push into tomorrow. I think I will take a short position arounnd 3:00 PM or so depending on the charts.
Does anyone know why SRS is so weird recently in last few week. It does not fall hard when market rrally hard like today, but sometimes it fall hards even market is up a fraction like yesterday? I am looking to go long at around 8.5~9.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:19 am
Hey…I noticed the same thing. Considering the favorable price action I’m buying some today around 9.70. If we have another bad day this week this thing will give a 10 handle easily
mark mansfield…you make my job easier. this is a complete bull trap in my opinion. be short or be toast!
1060.4 area held again. 5 min-15 min areas are still pretty heavily overbought. once again a decent put position, but downside is around 1055, maybe 1051 at most, which is not bad.
November 4th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
if you have daytrades, this is one of those areas, you can purchase, and raise stops almost immediately after purchasing to lock in profits.
Well there is still some hope for my bearish EUR/USD scenario. However I have to give respect to the bullish trend lines validating. For now I will sit and wait and watch.
FAZ showing some hesitation in the financials at the moment.
Almost to HOD while SPY also not far off HOD.
day trading the spy is pretty easy the last few days…just follow the trend.
i know this is playing with fire though, some big announcement will surprise and push this up or down. i hate when that happens.
Looks like weakness in banks starting to show up..WFC-MS in the red and all others starting to drop..Is this the early sign maybe a sell off after the fed announcement or just consolidation..
November 4th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
I am in the consolidation camp. Financials have been beaten down lately so with all the “good” news they may be ready for a move up!
I follow C and I have noticed that when it was climbing towards 5 couple of months back the vol was close to a Billion, in the correction phase the vol was only 1/3 to 1/2…
TZA, FAZ, SRS all holding up well here. Expecting a sell on the news?
November 4th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
I dunno , I find myself grossly uncertain. This would be a perfect setup for a sell the news scenario , but at the same time I expect the Fed to come out with wording that is bearish to the dollar in some way. So I’m playing a very small short EUR/USD entry atm and holding my FAZ. Will see what happens with the fed.
germany’s mdax up almost 4 percent wow.
GS cracking?
I feel as if everyone i speak tothey are expecting a major selloff and for that reason i think that the markets will go higher to squeeze more shorts out…… I’m only holding a 2000 shares of FAZ and may add more if we go above $24.70……..Is that the same feeling everybody else is getting? TIA
November 4th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
is that the mom and pop long term investor or the trading community.
November 4th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
After everyselloff since March, every major cycle low is always higher than the next one. I’m not sure how people derive a downtrend from this..
BTW, my brother who has never traded in his life told me the markets were going to crash on Monday… that was confirmation of the squeeze.
November 4th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
zee, your right, just curious is zee your real name or how did you come up with it. hopefully not offending you.
November 4th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
No offence taken. Zee is short for my real name ‘Zeeshan’. It has become my nickname over time with my friends.
November 4th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
cool
Hi Guys,
My 02 cents.
- Got a got profit with NTES (about 45% with some December Calls). I suggest it last Monday
Picks
- Market is ready to pop. Any push back will be short lived
LONG – Financials. Mainly GS and BAC. Just bought some GS Calls
– FLO – it was hammered recently. Now both MACD & STO are crossing
SHORT – AMZN – It is ready to drop hard. However because the market bias is bullish I don’t know if it worth the investment right now. Anyway it is good option for hedging if something goes wrong
Enjoy and trade wisely
November 4th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
Wha are you seeing on BAC – Burned bear ?
November 4th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
My approach is based only in TA. GS and BAC just reversed from their maximum negative divergence
Take a look:
http://www.freestockcharts.com/?emailChartID=5a69854c-f999-4770-a510-1b921d255be9
waiting for head and shoulders to play out. looking for right shoulder at 1075 max.
TZA now positive with the dow up 110
November 4th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
Inverse gold shares indexes went pos as well. Not good for stocks, they
can only manipulate one sector at a time.
HGD.TO
TKO.TO one of my best performers just gave it up like courtney love on her last
date. . .
This looks tob e a sell the news and leave the courtney day?
seems to me that the financial isn’t as strong as the marked in general. sp500 is up twice then XlF too day.
right now, I am only down 2% on my FAZ that a purchased yesterday before close.
anybody playing a double top short on oil around 80$ ???
November 4th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
I agree. For this market to go higer I am expecting financial to move up
November 4th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
playing double top on oil–charting to see where my stop position is.
November 4th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Oil is almost at a double top, and USD is only at the same level as the left shoulder in the nice looking IVH developing in USD
November 4th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
BTW, O/T but is weed legal in Daneland ? I have a friend visiting Amsterdam
next week and want him to mail me back free samples (legal in canada.)
This market vol has driven me to toke, not a far distance have to admit.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
go there, smoke as much as you want, but please don’t bring up on this site!
The volume to the dowside is not enough to convince me to go short yet, but the volume to the upside also is not good. I am looking to see a sell off soon to go short. Risk to go long is high until I see we close above 1080, then I would go long possibly toward 1020.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
There are several more bull targets up here in the 1060 to 1080 range. My primary count is that this a B-leg up of a larger A-B-C correction, like late June. We could revisit 1000 to 1010 area by mid-Nov. But keep a close eye on my altrenate count that has us going to new highs in the 1120 range in short order. Good luck.
http://pugridironsma.blogspot.com/2009/11/nov-4th-2009-morning-update-bulls-break.html
stock up on food
November 4th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
your right vision, there is only a little time left,
“when people lose everything they lose it”.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
Are you really Gerald Celente?
it’s over. buy ammo
November 4th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Would not short ammo. Do not want to know your entry point.
My nic is have gun will travel.
is anyone playing stec for a bounce
November 4th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
I definitely expect a bounce at 12.30ish..
November 4th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
i wish i had far out of the money put options yesterday on stec, i would be retiring right now.
Damn… STEC, wow, you should have stayed short that baby Idan damn… that was 42.00 in Aug.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
yeah hahaa… but that’s life!
November 4th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
OWners and insiders at STTEC were dumping positions at 22.00 so that
tells you how far overextended this rally/stock was/is.
FAZ playing around the 22.00 area… compelling push off the morning lows… The mkt divergences are pretty stunning here.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
is it a commodity rally
If the Fed statement doesn’t embolden the bulls and correct the divergences we are seening here in the market right now, you could get a massive bearish turn around day.
S&P downgraded Berkshire feeling the BNI transaction decreases liquidity and capital adequacy particularly for the insurance subs.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
yeah, buffet is a retard
November 4th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
No, i sent him a letter begging for ten million. No money yet so he’s not retarded
or perhaps retard but not crazy?
He is Jimmy Buffetts brother.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
no, he is related to jimmy hendrix cant you see the resemblance.
Which commodities, XLE/OIH barely up.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
you know, the paper stock note commodities.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
LOL paper producers and forest etf’s are doing strong today, guess gentile ben
put in advance orders for all the paper he can stuff into the marekt?
Gold just strated downside, does someone know something we don’t ?
A small rant. I often see this type of post to justify a contrarian position “Everybody expects (prediction) so I am going to position myself opposite to that position.” I hope this is just small talk and not a real justification for a position.
They go on to cite CNBC, their next door neighbor, or based on something they see driving down the street. This is anecdotal evidence and it means JACK SHIT. Who is “everyone”? You can’t measure that based on a couple of conversations or board posts.
The charts mean 100x more. Even the fundamentals mean more.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
I agree trading decisions should be based on charts, which is why I still hold my protected short shares as I see on the weekly charts the DOW, SPX, Nasdaq are in the process of starting some serious downward moves.
The only reason I positioned myself bullish biased into today was because as of yesterday’s close I saw a possibility of a big green bar. Given the FOMC announcement I think I made a wise choice. I’ll get rid of my call options, half during the run up to announcement, and half afterwards. I will then look for overbought stocks to short again.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Chacro,
In reply to your last script, I must say that i don’t listen to CNBC as they are full of SHIT. I was saying that since everyone on this board is extremely bullish and that concerns me when everyone is just too complacent and doesnt realize that the S&P has gone up about 65% since march without any significant pullbacks which would be very healthy…..
Also you are right charts are everything but you’re wrong in the fact that fundamentals mean more than charts…… if the markets were to trade according to fundamentals of the financials we would be sub 800 now for sure….
November 4th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
I think you misinterpreted – “even fundamentals are more important (than anecdotal evidence)” a jab at fundamentals that they are mostly worthless.
Also, everyone on this board isn’t extremely bullish. I’m not.
November 4th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
Don’t speak ill of Jack Shit. He is my nieghbor and a hellofaniceguy.
he is in the septic tank biz.
Russel 2000 is red. I’ve been watching this closely. This index is leading the market as of late. It was down hard last week and shot up significantly yesterday while the market was flat. The small caps are in the red. I think this will lead the market lower in the short term.
You want to know what would be cool and could happen at any time now given the view amongst some of the Fed Presidents? A dissenting vote on the decision… I think that would definately cause some harm to the equity markets.