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06
Nov
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77 Responses to “Weekend Update”
Stayed away from amzn this week. And stayed away from shorting. Up1.7k. Lastmonth was a disaster down 52000. Holding some dow short into next week. Unempolyment was atexpectations; priced in.
November 6th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
Wow. thanx for sharing that with me/us.
Sage advice is never valued till its earned. Will listen and learn from your example.
How did you get downage of 52K ? Shorts ? IMO this entire up move is brought
to you courtesy of Goldman+Shorts.
can show you a long going into expiry that has worked very well if bough 3 days
prior to xp and sold off into xp. Study charts for I O C into xp for past 4 months and
will discuss option strat. Modesty forbids my saying how good this has been to me.
Real nice trade if you use stops and avoid the greed factor. LOL, keep this to
your self or it may implode on me.
What a very strange day in the market today. It was as if most wall street traders went on some secret holiday, leaving only enough behind to keep a bid under the market.
5 days of gains in a row on SPX in much receding volume. Dollar held firm. Crude fell. Poor economic news today gave the market VERY good reason to sell off, but yet it did not.
About 240 earnings reports Thur night/Fri morn. Not quite as many exceptional ones as the previous day, but then Fridays are usually that way.
Here are some had exceptionals E/R’S;
EXLS* SWKS GROW SNIC* UEIC* DIT* LRN IGT TRCI* MFW KFN* SBUX* SAM* GSI MGA COHR* ABVT NVDA HH ACLS JDSU RMKR BX ARP SPAN NCOC NILE GXDX
* DENOTES NEW 52 WEEK HIGHS (9 today on e/r’s)
and now the Uglies/or just baddies;
GOK RRGB RAIL BEBE XRM CROX FNM AIG HSTX MOVE STKL MRT FIG OCLS BAGL SMTL HANS
Still short CTXS WHR VMW HAR STEC. Added GOK short right after the open today. Can’t believe it opened at $16.62 on such a horrible e/r, but I aint complainin at all. HAR still showing little signs of weakness after the e/r, i may have to give it up if it don’t start going my way soon .
WHR I shorted on the e/r and near the HOD, as I spoke about a coupla weeks ago and was stalking. You guys should check out the recent weakness in that chart. Today dropped in VERY heavy volume and will soon (probably Mon) crack the 50MA., as it rolls over to more realistic and historic levels, IMO.
Several more I am stalking for shorts-talk about later.
SMSI was one I mentioned yesterday as having an very ugly drop on their e/r. I think that huge drop was overdone ALOT, and much should have already been baked in over the last month already. This stock has been very good to me in the past. Had a steady rise all day today on good volume. I bought a bit today at 7.25, maybe add more later.
November 7th, 2009 at 8:22 am
Strange market week indeed. Best way I made money this week was by jumping in early long on green days (I think “they” call early AM trades rookie trades but so be it)) and riding it up for the first hour; then short scalps using the 3X ETFs later in the day. Didn’t even play it yesterday. Could not get a feel for the direction (yeah I know the feel word goes against ST’s theme)). These days with the market jittery about gold, the dollar and financials dndn is still a favored trade between 25.5 and 28. GS acted strange this week. Buyers ususally climb into this one late in the day when the market has been green all day- not the case this week. Conspiracy theorist in me says they (GS) want out of the spotlight for now with the press rumbling about CEO comp and so they are keeping their stock prices subdued. Still staying all in cash thru the weekends. What’s that saying about fool me once….
November 7th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
I can’t criticize something that works for you, as long as it keeps working. Sometimes a “feel” for things is just as good or even better than relying on T/A.
Just be real careful using those leveraged funds without having a real “strong” feeling.
Good point on GS. They got even more negative press yesterday about the H1N1 vaccine.
November 8th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
RIMM is one I am short stalking. Would really like to see a bounce back to 60-63 levels first, although that may not happen. Target mid to low 40’s.
I know some of you longed the stock, or bought calls, can’t imagine why. Everything I see points to down.
Looking at the rules and plan I have set for myself over the long term my actions will be determined by Monday’s close:
1.) A bullish close or even modest close up, equivalent to the SPX closing in 1075 or above – I will close a vast majority of my short positions and likely become a buyer on the long side with any push above 1080.
2.) A flat to down day – Still in the game.
What I expect is a close in the red, though I wont be surprised to see this market rally hard Monday before dropping, it is all about the close for me, for that reason I have removed my stops and have elected to keep a close eye on the price throughout the day.
Interesting article here on the change of philosophy toward “Too Big Too Fail.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/radical-fixes-for-too-big-to-fail-gain-support-2009-11-06
If some of these policies start to take root, you could see these financial firms collapse the market as a “see what will happen” reaction. Funny thing is that such an action could just feed into more support for these radical fixes.
Either way, nothing would make me happier than Goldman Sachs regulated to making no more than 4% a year. I know, not going to happen… but one can dream.
November 7th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Yeah Lew , that is what obviously should be done, but I doubt it ever will, at least not without another major and catastrophic upheaval. Nothing would please me more than to see them ripped apart, before that ever happens.
But they have simply gained way too much stronghold and total control.
Here is another good Rolling Stone article, revealing more of the corrupt power stranglehold they have over everything.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/30481512/wall_streets_naked_swindle/1
November 7th, 2009 at 11:22 pm
This was a good artilcle. Found it last week on another blog. I was one of the shareholders scalped when BSC got bought out. Memorable morning…Woke up on a Monday in March clicked on Bloomberg and found I’d lost 48G over the weekend. Still trying to recover some in court but not holding my breathe. Joke’s on me. The BSC was supposed to be my staid, conservative mundane holding. Right.
Ok so I finally signed up for social. This chart really simplifies my perspective on the market. There’s no reason to be long this market until the cycle trendline breaks out.
http://api.ning.com/files/IIYHMGI0cAYYxxrPUjql7HbWj5W8VQeLomv7gHZvXsxS2PNUW4FpvKaL5UkPJBy41vEsF4A1-aVKrmNuAaBq3JTw0cw015Ks/SPYcyclechart.jpg
November 7th, 2009 at 10:23 am
The more I look at this the more I have to consider that my so-called “cycle” trendline is also within the parameters of P1, since it connects the October top to intermediate (2) of P1. P2 could easily break this. If it does, the market will rally to new cycle highs. Thus fulfilling P2’s promise to work itself out of the paradigm of P1, and creating a new trendline that is exclusive to the cycle, and not any primary wave. That’s why I have to stay open to the possibility of it breaking out here.
Yahoo Sentiment Indicator:
Posters look bearish.
Yhoo posts:
ljoe4006: the disconnect between stk prices and reality is by far the widest in history. i believe a crash is coming
friulliguy: i’m buying faz every month…100 shares at a time….dollar cost averaging…don’t care about buying this for short term…i’m using this etf to invest for next 24 months watch faz go to $40 by then
jasondtride: Will FAZ ever see $100? I say YES and likely more…
Short all you want, but as long as you have yahoo posters claiming Dow 6,000 is coming, do you really think it will happen? Sometimes it pays to play contrarion.
November 7th, 2009 at 10:15 am
This is anecdotal evidence. I would rather trade based off of what I am seeing in the charts rather than what some folks on a yahoo board are posting.
I can cherry pick bull posts off the yahoo board just as easily.
super sonic boom boom: “the future will see these markets….rock.
rally time coming”
November 7th, 2009 at 10:40 am
Further, I believe there was a post yesterday (11:52) on ST that said dow was going to 20,000, sp was going to 2,000. Zee, appreciate most of your comments, but you can’t be hypocritical when stepping outside the box.
November 7th, 2009 at 11:21 am
No one knows where markets are heading. we do know that gov’t and
big money want markets hot and high, want small investors back in to
sell to. Low volume suggests they have huge inventories to unload or
foist onto public.
Price in financials C specific and a topping to energy charts has me con-
fused (don’t take much for that?) PMs have soared while producers have
under performed.
\On a horrid jobs report only energy tanks while energy stocks were bought?
I suspect we will see big down early into next week, draw in shorts and sell
puts/vol. Then we rally into opex like its 1999 and set up a pre santa rally
that fails in latter half of Dec.
Expect news out early in week that buffett sold off WFC and GS to finance
his model railroads and his long bet on america becomes a short american
financials ?
Just wondering, when the inflation data starts rolling out with huge increases
due to yr/yr compares with a deflationary past. . . . how is cnbc gonna dress
a 5.0% rate ? I see the fed changing the rules to negate all food and energy
associations and include assets such as housing?
As for the ultimate wrong money index, forget the sour grapers at yahoo,
its the screamer jim cramer to watch. When the Bipolar rants scream
caution: bet your ass long !!! Just remember, when the stock midget
told you to sell everything cuz markets were going down for 5 years he
signaled a bottom and generational buy opp.
Does anyone sub to his advance notice service? A fairly good source of
ongoing income is subbing to his advisory, buying the recommendations
he makes at midday and selling to the suckers on afterhours when the
traditional bid up comes to life.
Stressful? yeah. But it generates a steady source of $2-600 per evening
for a few hours of overtime. Avoid the illiquid crap he touts and focus on
the big value stuff. BTW if i post in real time i get my sub to the streetdotcom
cut.
Sure, its a scam but so is the market.
November 7th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Why would the government want high bogus markets to scalp the little guy? Revolution, general strikes, anarchy, fascism, communism are not in the intrest of the government or the country. At least I hope to God they are not. This bear market rally is a great tragedy for th U.S. Ordinary people have absolutely no place to invest their money. TIPS are the closest thing to the best investment for the average person, and when enough people figure that out their yield before inflation will also drop to zero. We need to see the S&P at 400 or so with a yield of atleast 3% for several years before the country can begin to heal. To save the country, the stock market must crash and crash soon.
November 7th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
Now thats a new one “To save the country, the stock market must crash and crash soon.”
As a nation we should have stopped the stupid redneck for going into an illegal war and sending our troops all over the world for the benefit of few.
November 7th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
Iraq was one problem, but so was the deregulation of banking, mortgages, consumer debt and our culture of greed. Somebody on this site made this analogy several months ago: The bear market rally is like the circus performer who is climbing a ladder to dive into a bucket of water. The bloodthirsty crowd is yelling “higher, higher, higher.” When the fed stops loaning money to banks at 0% the performer dives. By now, he is so high the crash will be an ugly one. But the higher he goes the more likely he will die. But the ladder goes to infinity, so he keeps on climbing and the fed keeps printing money and the Dow could go to a billion and a million dollars will buy a cup of coffee. He must jump now or we will all be destroyed. The country needs a massive stock market crash to survive. I speak from the heart. I am not desperate. I have even figured out how to make a tiny bit of money on the long side without losing my crash protection.
November 7th, 2009 at 10:54 am
Charco;
I may have missed it but you bring up your “profitable system” every once in a while without any explanation. BULL or BEAR everyone should make money but I havent seen any real time trades from you to gauge if you are walking the talk. Posting trades after the fact doesn’t count.
As much as I donot agree with IDAN most of the time , I admire him cause he walks the talk, same goes for Zee, Woo and few others.
Those who talk about CRASH or DOW to the Moon are either frustrated or hopeful- both are sure ways to wipe out an account.
The market has to correct some day it has too, but not now. We have still TONS of $s coming into the system via Uncle SAM and till that continues we aint going down.
Woo nailed it when he explained unemployment numbers yesterday
November 7th, 2009 at 11:28 am
Jon, know you aimed this question at Chacro, don’t know his/her positions, but have had this debate before with others. One should not have to post their real time trades on a consistent basis (i.e shares, price), as this site is about learning, not who has/makes more monies. Granted, it is good to know when one takes a position, but have noticed some of the more qualified traders talk about support/resistance, etc., allowing followers to make their own decisions. I have learned a lot from these people over the past 14 months, but again, implement their knowledge into my own strategies. Don’t believe this site is a brokerage house, rather an avenue of learning for future successes. Also, always appreciate your posts–gives insight to your thoughts. Although I have posted some strong positions lately, am making many other trades that don’t need to be published–overabundance of info like this may scare away a new person from asking a quality question. Good luck.
November 7th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
right on Blackhawk. Sure it’s nice to sometimes see who’s buying short or long and how many and for how much but I take more time reading the posts that have different ways of looking into/through whatever the market is doing at any given time. A few hallaluhah or funeral chime posts are fun to read but stop there.
November 7th, 2009 at 7:00 pm
I agree blackhawk, this site had some great contributors earlier (Shanky, Mohan, S135) and now Woo Fritz etc. Idan has always been there and nuetral .
I personnaly do not believe in EW bs but its fun to read and see others prospective. It is always fun to read when someone says PPT, manipulation, market on air etc. no susbstance to back it up.
November 7th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
I guess I’ll have to correct your misconception Jon.
On tuesday, October 27th, I posted that I was going short. I did it at the open. I even changed my handle (SEE LONG MWN @ 30.30? What do you think that means?)
Give me a break. Maybe you haven’t seen any trades because I made them last tuesday. Look at my chart. I don’t need to answer to you.
I posted numerous times the link to the system I use. Here it is again- mtrig.com
Have a great day.
November 7th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Here I’ll even dig it up for you Jon. Both your criticisms addressed in one post. I changed my handle shortly after to reflect my position.
Chacro replied:
October 27th, 2009 at 7:52 am
This might be a good multi-week trade.
For what its worth, the timing site I follow for investors mtrig.com issued a sell signal yesterday. The last signal was buy on 7/16, and they’ve pretty much been long since 3/13. I expect a relatively steady downtrend from here. P3? Maybe.
My 401(k) is 50% cash 50% bonds. My Roth IRA is 80% short and 20% bonds. My dinky ass trading account is almost 100% short. Good luck.
November 7th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Maybe you did miss these posts, Jon but there was even one a few days ago where I directly responded to your question about this. I’m a NOVICE trader, and I’m learning too. apologize for sounding abrasive. I can’t assume you read my posts before based on your comments. But your comments really kind of chafed my ass.
November 7th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
Chacro, I might have added fuel to the fire. We all get emotional about post returns–goal is to have everyone contribute accordingly.
Thanks for your info, along with Jon’s.
Hope both of you have a great weekend–look forward to having a new positive week of trading!
November 7th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
Charco;
Thanks for the links..appreciate it. I think I have missed it. you share a lot of good info and I like to know how you guys trade so examples are alwyas nice to look back and learn.
take care
November 7th, 2009 at 6:54 pm
Chill out dude…be real. We had way too many bears on this site who were great in sharing info without attitude. If you get worked up by comments on this then you have bigger issues to deal with.
I just question any system which generates + results all the time and its proven. If if works for you great..
November 7th, 2009 at 8:23 pm
Jon you can imagine it being frustrating to be criticized for not doing something that you do anyway. The MTRIG doesn’t generate profitable results all the time. It does generate profitable results over many many years. It’s an investment model, not a trading model As I’ve said (again, you don’t read my posts, but criticize anyway) it is right slightly more than 50% but the winners run long and the losers are stopped out quickly, that’s what makes it profitable.
And I do have bigger issues, my Wolverines are 1-5 in the Big Ten and absolutely suck balls. I am pissed. I am taking it out on you.
November 7th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
Ahh…you should have told me you are Big10 fan then I would have spared you
I am Golden Gopher but never cared to follow MN sports cause they suck 
Just saw the new TCF outdoor football stadium for the gophers, piece of art.
Piece Maan!
November 7th, 2009 at 5:50 pm
Chacro, the Yahoo Sentiment Indicator is meant more for jokes than for strategy. I do not trade off it, but thanks for the concern.
November 7th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
Good to know.
November 7th, 2009 at 9:13 pm
My sentiment indicator are my friends-who are distinguised engineers
When they say they entered the market since everything looks clear then I will exit.
It looks like we have a dual pattern that have set up. One bullish and the other bearish. A bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern is in play along with a bearish rising wedge
Which one plays out.???
Idan – Seems like your BIDU buy call at 370s turned out to be a very good one. I was not in that trade however. Do you think BIDU is in a very very overbought list right now – given that it is at 409? What resistance/supports do you see for it? Would you short it right now?
Thanks.
November 7th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
I sold NOV 410/420 BIDU call spreads when Idan first said it was overbought and NOV 370/360 BIDU Put spreads when Idan said it was oversold. If BIDU ends at OPEX above 418 or below 362 I have lost just a small amount of money. If it ends below 410 and above 370 I get to keep it all. Thanks Idan for what will probably turn out to be a very profitable trade. (Since it is at 409, I hope it is overbought and slowly starts down again).
Elizabeth Warren talks about TARP and if it will be profitable and a few other comments by her
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Elizabeth%20Warren%20Says%20TARP%20Will%20Probably%20Make%20a%20Profit&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v7_Eo8S4a1y0.asf
short term point turn dates…….are as follows
10/14…..confirmed
11/03…. confirmed
11/09….,,spx 1000 ish
11/15……spx 1070 ish
12/06…..spx…higher low than 11/09
12/17…..santa claus rally
market is tired, not enough buyers at these levels………..volume is all dried up on up days.
they may be able to push spx up a few more points but huge reversals will continue to play out.
watch dollar close this week…………77.6 is major , major breakout. that will tank the markets.
i feel bad for all those hard working families who have bought the farm again in the market. this
market is going down hard, breaking the march lows, when this will exactly happen is
anybodys guess. when the market has all the retail investors completely sucked in…..it will be
primed to go south. dow 10000 today is same as what dow 300 was in 1930-31. charts are two
in the same. markets are broke. this is the first time in my life that i have heard and read so
many high profile ew and ta people disagree on what the charts are saying. this is all one
mass of confusion on wall street……..the retail guy is going to lose big time once again. its
because he has become so complacent once again.. even though i know dow 4-5000 is
around the corner…………….i dont want to think of what it will do to our country. look for a dollar rally to start very early next week………uup has to get all cleaned up from last weeks infusion of shares……this should take another day or two.
glta
November 7th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Have been following uup–can you share translation for 77.6 on dollar (i.e what for uup)? I show bull flag on daily.
November 7th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
i will……….i have to leave for a appointment …..i will post later.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
it should be around 23.05 +-
November 7th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
sorry i put the wrong spx numbers next to the dates should be as follow.
11/09………spx 1070 ish
11/15…… spx 1000 ish
12/06…….spx 1068-70 ish
12/17……spx 1014 ish……….then santa claus rally
Does anyone know why a post and link about understanding the carry trade keeps getting deleted? The second time I didn’t even post the actual link (left out the http)
It’s a VERY good article, BTW.
Well , I see I’m not positioned exactly how I would prefer to be going into Monday. Not a big shock since I tend to make mistakes towards the end of the trading week when I’m tired ,I have very long days.
My positions:
UYG Long @ 5.40
EUR/USD Short @ 1.48397
USD/JPY Long @ 89.805
While I’m happy with the currency position , I don’t like the UYG. Mainly because I’m stuck in it till Tuesday (cash account , have to wait for settlement date , free ride restriction blah blah). That was a trade made on impulse. Should have just sat out equities till my bullish dollar scenario verifies Monday. I guess it will work as a hedge in case I’m wrong and we rally Monday.
I have gone over my charts some more today for my currency pairs. The EUR/USD is still screaming bearish to me:
Monthly -> Still under 8 year old bullish trend line.
Weekly -> Bounced off 23.6% bullish 4 year old fib.
Daily -> Top of bullish channel and in a rising wedge, possible top of right shoulder.
Hourly -> Bearish channel bounced off the top of nicely.
Overall this screams to me the EUR/USD is ready to go lower. I am still harboring some fear of the “blow off top” scenario (hence the UYG impulse buy) , but I expect Monday to bring selling.
The USD/JPY is saying similar things , bounced off a bearish trend line and have a lot of room to run up before hitting the top of that same channel.
I think , Monday I will increase my long on the dollar , so as to minimize the damage I will sustain on Monday from being stuck in UYG.
Another factor to consider.
5 recent deaths in our little berg of 800 2 attrib’d to hog flu. Attending docs refused to brand as
H1n2 as may cause full blown panic. on instructs from gov’t to keep shoppers going.
They are rubber stamping death certs as ‘other’ rather than report truth.
All deaths of 30-40 year olds in otherwise fair health with no underlying causes up to point
when resp syst failed.
Prof sports teams under critiques due to hording of vaccines. Only high risk pop is being
vacc’d at this time and shortage of serum. 6 page danger warnings with admin of vacc’n
to discour adminstr’n.
SOB. . . . local funeral homes doing well.
November 8th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
yawn.
that fake panic stuff is so last month.
Sometimes it is good to look back at chart patterns and find out what one did right or wrong. This Wednesday SPX chart pattern was interesting. The market went up from 1048 to 1062 and fell back to 1048 – a drop of 14 points in a couple of hours. A lot of traders on this site turned bearish. And, many probably lost money as the next day (this Thursday) was a huge 30 point up move.
Here’s what I think happened.
1. The market was falling till Friday last week (October 30th) and had SPX reached 1034
2. If you draw a trend line from the highs of the daily candlesticks since the decline started, you will notice that that trend line broke on this Wednesday
3. Whenever this happens, a number of technical traders close their short positions and get out. This caused the rally. It was clearly a short covering rally.
4. Smart traders were neutral at this time. They were waiting for the major economic news to be out (like unemployment data) and see how the market responds to the economic numbers.
5. Another group of smart trader waited patiently on Wednesday for this rally to lose steam and shorted the market. This was the selloff we saw at 3 pm. Many of the bulls had stops in and got stopped out. This added fuel to the selloff.
Many traders wrongly interpreted this as a major reversal and time to short the market. This is the wrong interpretation
There are 2 correct interpretations
1. When a declining trend line breaks and you see an ‘inverted hammer’ ignore it. This pattern is not reliable
2. We had one more day (on Wednesday) in which the market did not fall further. The probability of the market going up has increased.
November 8th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
On Wednesday, I was both the patient one who waited for an opportunity to short, and the trader sucked in to the bear trap believing the downdraft at the end of the day was a major trend move.
Seems the key to avoiding this mistake would have been respecting the fact that the downtrend line from the past 4 days had been broken…..I appreciate your explanation of the market action in terms of expectations and actions by groups of traders.
The way the market shrugged off very bad employment numbers Friday was a big surprise, makes me think there is still more upside
Or,,,perhaps the best contrarian indicator of all is that I am now starting to think about playing from the long side.
November 8th, 2009 at 9:43 pm
Go into ST social and then into videos. Watch last Friday’s inthemoney video- the 11-6 one. Brian’s reasoning for Friday’s moves is right on. No charts no BS- just the facts m’am.
Hmm, interesting factoid;
Sept ‘82, unemployment rate rose above 10% for the first time since WWII, peaked at 10.8% Dec ‘82, and stayed above 10% until July ‘83. During that time period the SPX rose 40% +
Not that it holds any real relevance today at all. I was just curious why the market was so ho-hum about it Friday, other than it further virtually guarantees a loose money policy into the forseeable future
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=1982-08-01&en=1983-07-01&id=p40393230532
Blackhawk,
Why do you take issue with people posting trades? I do understand why you might think that it doesn’t help people learn how to trade for themselves (unless the post also includes the reasoning for the entry/exit) but I’m not sure that this site exists solely to train novice traders. If the posting of trades helps some people make money (assuming the posted trades are consistently good), why would anyone have an issue with it? Of course, no matter what information is posted, it is the full responsibility of the individuals reading the posts to decide how to use it.
To be clear, I don’t think anyone should be required to post trades (or anything else for that matter). Some people don’t feel comfortable giving trading advice and that is totally fine. I think we should respect the various ways that people try to help here. I will say that I do like it when people post trades in real time because it often gives me ideas that I would not have had and hearing about it after the fact doesn’t really help.
Also, some people post trades and ideas based on TA and it turns out to be lousy advice.
I know you specifically take issue with my posts but I ask you, could they have helped people here make money in the market? It is risky for me to put it all out there in real time because the trades could all fail and I would look like a fool.
Anyway, best of luck to you and everyone else in the coming week!
November 7th, 2009 at 9:54 pm
Looking like a fool is personally my favorite part. All my analysis points to a down week next week. Watch the market make a fool of me!
November 7th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
I do not agree with the “fool” comment. A fool is someone who knowinlgy stands infront of the train
Charco, as long as we swim with the big fish and behind it we are OK..:)
November 8th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
I want to say I find all of Morris’s posts very helpful, especially as a guideline/reference to validate some of my own trading ideas. I have followed Morris’s trades on SCO/UCO with modest success. I don’t agree with all of his trades at all times, but I sincerely appreciate his willingness to share his ideas. He is not compensated for doing what he did, and even if some do not agree with how he shares his trades with no extensive explanations, his trade ideas have been extremely valuable to me and I wish the sharing spirit can continue for as long as it lasts! Thanks Morris!!!
November 8th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
I don’t think any one is compensated here forcefully, but appreciate your thoughts.
November 8th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Not picking on you at this point–already made my peace. Will say this–made a lot of money late last year/earlier this year, then lost some from late March–ALL, by following posts that had no foundation for their trades. Decided to buy my own platform, create charts, start learning about T/A, etc., thus allowing me to be responsible for my own actions vs. gambling on someone else’s. This decision (along with ST gurus) has also allowed me to go further as an independent trader/investor for a potential future income. By the way, have earned my losses back in last month quickly through this process.
Although you have had considerable success, you never give reasons for your trades (other than whole numbers). I believe you to be smarter than this–it would be great to hear how you make your true decisions, as many follow your lead.
I think Valerie said it well–okay to show gains/losses on occasion, but I enjoy reading this site based on different perspectives of the market as it evolves.
Good luck to you also.
November 8th, 2009 at 11:16 pm
I don’t think many follow my lead but I do hope that some have found success if they have done so. I do have reasons for my trades, but they are not based on traditional TA. I don’t think I could teach someone else to see things the way I see them so I just share what I do in the hopes that it will help. I will make some effort in the future to post my reasons for entering (or exiting) trades.
An article on Bloomberg about how the bank are being too optimistic about their finances.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aA.OzgyxTtCc&pos=4
Great discussion all.
As a novice trader, too moved by emotion and greed, I am often my own best contrarian indicator. I am positioned too aggressively bearish this week – too many options too far out of the money, too soon till opex – than I’d rather be. That said, the market may bail me out.
After 5 days of up on low volume, there has to be a bear-trap drop next week. PUGridiron’s charts as well as others favor a completion of the H/S, then a strong rally to end the year.
There IS too much money available, and too much at stake for the Gov’t and too much wall st. bonus money at stake for this bloated pig of a market to tank seriously prior to year’s end.
Starting in Jan there will be a sharp move downward, allowed by the GOv’t to rally people into buying a few T-T-T-Trillion more in bonds, then another fall rally toward the elections.
THis is how the cynical, conspiracy theorist in me sees these markets unfolding. But here’s to a few 2% down days in a row to fatten the accounts, suck in da bears, and make those Dec. SPY calls cheap-cheap-cheap.
G20 Communique from Scotland-
“5. The International Financial Institutions (IFIs) will play an important role in supporting our work to secure sustainable growth, stability, job creation, development and poverty reduction. It is therefore critical that we continue to increase their relevance, responsiveness, effectiveness and legitimacy.”
In other words, big government is not only planning on staying around, it is going really big:
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=469
Gerald Celente on Russia Today American unemployment rates are around 20%
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmmSYh5CI6c&feature=sub
November 8th, 2009 at 11:38 pm
Zee, you watch russia today? thought i was the only one.
Al Jazeera is illegal up here so we have to connect to the direct T5 Satellite feed.
Added another SPY chart. Interestingly, 107.55 is roughly the intersection of a fib retrace, a major support/resistance level over the past decade, and the P2 trendline will pass right through it tomorrow. This would be a good place to short IMO.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A36478
weekend market summary
http://www.investmenthouse.com/weekendmarketsummary.htm
I have an extremely busy week this week as I have a ton of catching up to missing work + school for 2 weeks due to the swine flu!!
To those wanting an update with cycles or where I think the market is headed:
It’s a bit complicated this time around because of the higher 3-month cycle peaking in late november and coinciding with a couple of other cycle peaks…The theoretical top is November 17th (+/-2) trading days. IMO, we go higher in the month of November since Nov 02 (the theoretical big cycle low was higher than the Sept 03 low showing we are truly in an uptrend, at least until Nov 17th).. .
November 8th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
So I won’t be able to post for a couple weeks.
toodles
November 8th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
Who’s going to fill the bull shoes? It might be me if we push above my trend line next week.
US $ seems to have fallen some against the EUR over the weekend
Gold $1104.5 hit
November 8th, 2009 at 11:56 pm
Gold Price Change due to Weakening of US Dollar +5.70
Gold Price Change due to Predominant Buying +1.50
Gold Price: Total Change+7.20
November 9th, 2009 at 12:02 am
first gold target price $1200 to $1300.
Maybe more if it gets crazy. Good chance of it, IMO
Crude target $95 to $96.
November 9th, 2009 at 12:04 am
Initial crude target 84,60
November 9th, 2009 at 2:39 am
Man oh man gold is going crazy!!
Wow futures are up huge!
If we have a +2% day, Elliot wavers will probably make up some excuse that P3 is still alive.LOL
November 9th, 2009 at 4:05 am
Zee, these cycles you talk about…. How are they derived?
Looking for S&P breakout and keep going higher to 1090…