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11
Nov
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12:56 pm PST update:
coiling like crazy…
8:47 am PST update:
here’s the 1 month SPX to look at:
original post:
Happy Veteran’s Day. So Idan is out for about 2 weeks on a business trip, so I’ll be managing the intraday until he returns.
Here is my post from October 23rd of fibs:
http://www.stocktock.com/2009/10/23/ew-and-fib-update/
I’ll post some updates on those charts here, which will hopefully give us a better idea of what is to come on the market.
This is the current chart with no fib projections. This gives you retraces based on the current 1101 peak area and shows the major trend lines up till now.
We went down to the 50% retrace of one of the major rises of this 5 of 5 wave, but we never went down to the 38% retrace of the 5 of 5 wave which are the yellow fibs, so this 5 of 5 is still very much alive. You’ll also notice that we broke slightly below the pink retrace, but only to hit a trend line. Both the green and white major trend lines were recovered as well, which means we’re back in a bullish channel and bullish trend. To me this movement is very bullish, and we’re way above all the retraces of the drop that occurred to the 1029 level from the 1101 peak.
Here’s a current version of the 6 month 60 minute 1118 target chart that I posted in earlier posts:
This current area on the 60 minute of 1092-1093 can still create resistance. We’ll see tomorrow if we start heading above or below that point. I still think that the 1118-1122 area is a very real target. We’re slightly overbought so we could see a drop to retest the trend line that we see on the 1101 chart that I first posted.
Here’s my overall long term view updated from the last post and how it’s been playing out:
I think this chart looks pretty. Please refer to the post link above and a few older posts on a better explanation on the counts for this chart.
Here’s a closer look at a potential 1 month chart:
So far we’ve been staying within that light green channel, only to break above or below it to hit fib points. I think that this will continue to fill in nicely and points towards 1122 coming up in the future. It will be hard to say exactly how we get there, and as I mentioned before, there may be a drop that occurs prior to that to test the bottom of that trend line.
So you have to be careful with this market whenever it’s sitting in the middle of channels, it’s also sitting RIGHT on the 1092-1093 fib, there is less and less resistance to the north of here, and there are quite a few fibs below that can be targeted, so place tight stops on any positions taken.
Let’s look at more specific stocks:
AMZN
This has been a very high volatility stock that a lot of people have been eyeing. Notice that we hit a major trend line, and are slightly above all the fib projections towards 141. You have to be careful shorting here because we had a slight trend line break today. In AH we went into new highs for this stock as well. If we break north of that trend line we could get a HUGE surge north. It’s overbought, but we’ve seen stocks rally even in overbought conditions, so it might be better to attempt short/put positions after the stock drops below that retrace below 130.
This stock is back above that green channel again and also sitting above a fib. I would place stops right below there and hope to ride this up higher. I wouldn’t be surprised if this retests the 208-209 area again. If not you take a small loss, if it does break north and with enough momentum, you have the chance of breaking north towards 217. The top red trend line hasn’t been tested yet, so we’ll see how the market reacts when it gets there.
ERX
I don’t know about you, but I’m really liking the long term of this ERX chart at this moment. I won’t hold ERX below 44, but above it I’m leaning bullish. I would love to see a test of the trend lines north of here which are 55+ which is a good 8 points north of here.
XLF is currently stuck between 14-15 and will probably stay that way a bit. I’m not going to touch this until we see a break above or below this area. Then I can comfortably grab a position and place stops above or below the break.
This is another hard one to really grab a great position on at the moment. You see that we’re in the pink channel. We’re below the 50ma which will be some resistance above here. I wish we were in the blue channel and above and out of the pink channel, that would be a great bullish indicator. Right now I’m also going to be watching for wedge breaks.
All these major trend line and major fibs that we see will become REALLY useful when things start breaking down. But if it’s a horizontal wedge, it will be a bit harder to make money off of them, compared to if they are ascending or descending channels/wedges. I’ve been playing the market very sparsely lately and am waiting for that beautiful moment to grab a larger short term call or put position. I think things should start clearing up more this week, and wouldn’t be surprised if we headed into new highs before the week is over. Market will do everything it can to trap and confuse though, so you have to be on your guard whenever an EW 5 of 5 minimum requirement has long since been met, and we’re possibly retesting previous highs. They won’t hand you money that easily. Always remember the importance of stops, and locking in profits. Never worry about missing out on big moves, just make sure you’re looking for the opportunities that do come, then move on to the next trade and next opportunity (easier said than done right haha). I’ll try and post some updates throughout the intraday, but have been pretty busy at work lately, which is why I haven’t been able to post as actively.
Good luck everyone!
trend line break to the south. probably means 1092-1093. ok off to work. posted a new chart above, but it doesn’t have the trend line break that just happened.
Ok after looking over some back charts intra day, and the fact the EUR/USD bounced down off a fib line the same time the SPX bear market trend line was hit … I’ve decided to take a short position. I have also reshorted the EUR/USD
FAZ Long @ 18.89.
EUR/USD Short @ 1.49761
I think the bear trend line holds , maybe only for a pull back to the bottom of the short term bull channel / megaphone , but overall I think it holds for rest of the week. Gotta place your bets some time so I’ve picked my pony may the best jockey win
November 11th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Ditto im long EDZ @ 5.50
November 11th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
arctic,
I’m with you on this one. Got FAZ at $18.65. Should be good for a ride back to 1070ish.
November 11th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
fas is currently below the 50ma. good sign.
MM’’s for tomorrow:
0830 initial and continuing claims
1100 crude inventory
1400 treasury budget
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
I’m going outside to get stuff done. Shoot twice into the air if the market wakes up either direction.
I am taking a short position on TZA given that we were very close of my 10400’s level into tomorrow. I am buying TZA 2000 shares at 12.22 right here. I am thinking that we will have a red day tomorrow perhaps retesting the 10100’s level. Lets see how it plays out. I am still thinking north we go but not today nor tomorrow. Opex is next week so it will be a slow grind to the upper 10400’s to low 10500’s. (I think we stop at 10520’s). I will buy friday for this push higher
Dollar is showing some huztpa,I wonder if it has anything to do with O’Bamas trip to China coming up !!! Strange how those things just happen to coinside at the same time.Let’s face it folks if the dollar has a sustained rally the carry trade is over and equities are going down.
November 11th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
It is just a dead cat bounce for the dollar. With all this printing it will be dime a dozen
selling puts on Qs and buying calls on SPUs……i see spx at 1125~1130 by eow
Woo, look at the volume on the downside on a bank holiday?
Is this the overhead supply of stocks holding on and praying for a break even to whence they
bought 3-5 years ago?
Its harder to be short and long term bullish when you’ve been underwater for years.
November 11th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
on this run up from 666 we’ve had a number of days that just ramped up on very low volume, and when people thought it couldn’t be sustained, it just kept going higher.
i think we have to be very careful here, that we don’t use volume as a primary tool, and we use it as one of our many tools in an arsenal.
right now we need major trend line and fib breaks to occur, and we’re still sitting in the channel at the moment. the upside is above 1110 and the fib and trend line. market isn’t oversold or overbought. so need to tread carefully…
is there anyways to know from looking at level2 data or anywhere else to know if vol. is on sell or buy side?
call me crazy but i actually think the NAS may touch the 2000 peak…..how? the cheap(er) dollars will get us there.
November 11th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
are you sure you are not bearish bull.
November 11th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Or a bi-polar bear ?
Do we need a dot com depression to really teach us the meaning of cash for
trash? Can 800 smart phone makers survive and thrive? Will O/S 7 save
the chip sector?
Or will china’s piracy and over production hit a peak when the econo furhter
softens and catapults prices lower?
To quote jesus: this too will pass.
Will cut and paste some 2007 goog predictions for $2500 (or one ounce of gold)
to defuse this irrational exubing.
November 11th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Cheaper dollar will be good for us IMHO. It will curb our spending habbits and our appetitie for foreign goods. I hope the weaker dollar brings back manufacturing back to our back yard!
November 11th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
Yes, in the same way cancer will make me appreciate life and family more.
If a devalued currency is so good why is argentina, zimbabwe etc., now on
life support?
Yup, $300 oil will be good for the usa, all the unused chinese mopeds and bikes
can be bought on the cheap to peddle around in. A low dollar will be great for
corps selling to the newly powerful chinese or arabs, not so good for the american
middle class sprucing up the cardboard boxes they will be living in.
Hey, do you know how they support falling currencies in those countries that did
what america is doing now? They raised interest rates to 15-20% to compen
sate for falling currencies.
I know, you’ll say that could never happen to america !!! Soviets said same
thing. Argentina had the same standard of living as canada in 1966 and huge
gold and sliver reserves. Ditto Britain.
REPEAT AFTER ME, THIS TIME ITS DIFFERENT, WE LEARNED OUR LESSONS FROM ROME.
Great. Now lets find another armpit country to invade and extend will onto !!!
November 11th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
are you on drugs ???
November 11th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Since you mentioned drugs, lets say i am. those drugs would be canadian
hydro pot or columbian coke, maybe some china white heroin, again. like
in real life, nothing is made in america but debt & arrogance.
The amazing thing is each and every country that rolled over and died
as a result of failed power and currency deval thought it was on top of
things and invincible to the very end. Britain and russia still think they
rule the roost.
“Bringing industry back to the USA?”
What is made there? Cars are assembled after parts are made in canada
or mexico or china.
Corps have been sending jobs away to meet bottom lines, think they will
start returning jobs to $16. an hour usa instead of $30 a month china or
india? And no mistake, china has peep that will work hard for that buck
or two a day, no unions or mandated coffee breaks when the supervisor
has an AK-47.
America’s biggest employer? Wallymart. Great careers after you clean up
isle 7.
Maybe i’m on the same drug america smokes each morn. . . denial.
Just got back in for a second and I see that I could have gotten out of ERY with a small profit instead of a 300 dollar loss if I had been more patient today (as Woo suggested). Ugh! I’m just too busy on Wednesdays to watch the screen every minute. Up almost 500 right now on the FAS I was using to hedge the ERY position so all is well. Stepping out again. Best of luck this afternoon!
Feels like we’re going to get a strong move in one direction in the next 30 minutes.
hit the 50ma and the trend line and dipped south…
testing the 1096.6 fib
November 11th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
Woo what r u thinking – we fall from here ? If we go down, then where do we fall to ?
November 11th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
hard to say, we’re at the 50 retrace of the rise from 1086-1087 area. so we’ve got 2-3 points above and below as the other 2 fibs.
this could slow bleed down over two days to 1087, or it could rise up since we’ve hit the retrace to try and get back in the channel.
but we’re below the green channel and coiling at the moment, so it’s more of a bear bias short term.
@anjali – do you not have any daytrades? i think that even if your account is under 25k, you still get 3 daytrades over a 5 day trading span.
November 11th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Woo – my husband works for a brokerage … so I am not allowed even 1 day trade … but if I buy EOD and sell in the am first thing … that is ok .. but I have to hold overnight …
November 11th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
ahhh…i see. that explains it. it’s always the husbands fault…
November 11th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
No – he gets called by his boss even if I make a 1 day trade … its not fun then
looks like i got out too early on my amzn puts. could’ve made money instead of just breaking even. too impatient today haha.
November 11th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Impatience (and general business at work) has cost me some money today as well. I hate Wednesdays!
November 11th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Then don’t trade on Wednesdays. You don’t have to trade everyday.
November 11th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
Great point Fritz…this is very hard for me too . I HAVE to learn how to take a break to keep my sanity.
November 11th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
I sat out most of September and early October, it was very hard for me. However, my analysis during those times did not show a clear direction, so I had to preserve my capital.
November 11th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
I had positions from earlier in the week that I wanted to close today. I have not opened any new positions today.
November 11th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
so hard to stay patient in a day like today. it looks like it can go either way when there’s any type of consolidation.
November 11th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
haha yeah. sometimes i’ll get pulled into a meeting at a crucial point, when i know i want to get out at an optimal point and sell at limit instead of a trailing stop… VERY annoying.
today i had too much money in my SPY put position, so i didn’t want to miss out on large profits and was hoping to get out of my position before having to drive to work. if i had held till now, it would be up more than when i sold at 1097, but i would be a lot more stressed out and would be growing more gray hairs while driving to work for 30 minutes haha.
$DXY at HOD…threatening to bust higher. if it does, watch out for a sudden drop in the equities market
palladin, i guess you ran zee off
November 11th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
zee said he’s away and not going to be posting for two weeks.
November 11th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
maybe idan and zee are privately meeting and having a pow wow without us.
November 11th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
are zee and woo asain?
November 11th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
i’m korean. i don’t know about zee.
market still below 50ma. fell out of channel completely.
still playing within the 38-61% fibs of the recent rise…
November 11th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Zee name sounds like he is from South Asia (India maybe?)
November 11th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
If my memory serves me correctly, Zee said it’s short for Zeeshan, which I believe is Arabic. Not that it matters…
November 11th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Explains his hatred of jews/bears, LOL.
Gold outperforming stocks, currencies and gold stocks, this has a long
way to run, no one beleives the gold story for a minute. . we could go
to $4,600 by xmas.
Entered AAPL Vertical call spread Dec 210/220 @ 2.67 … this is based off your analysis Woo
and the bounce off 202 …
November 11th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
good luck! hopefully it breaks north to 209 and higher. be careful if it dips below the 201.4 area.
November 11th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
OK will put an alert there …. thanks Woo … pls let me know if you see anything that changes your view..
bull flag on the $DXY. Could make for an interesting end of day
….pool…..only bids…Let’s see what the stocktock members think about
– I bet for a further push…no valid drop at all this week
November 11th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
hey you could be right.
November 11th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
i say no pull backs and up to 1130 on spy, i hope i am wrong but who cares.
November 11th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Man, it is scary for me as a bear…but it insane to go against the FED…
I just can’t see any weakness at all….
http://www.freestockcharts.com/?emailChartID=086478fe-3f32-4cee-adcf-bf9f3ea74d74
November 11th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
cool charts.
November 11th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
My favorite indicator is the 2nd chart (stochastic against PPO 21/89). It seldom fails….
Anjali – I have attached my SPX cycle analysis on Social. The URL is http://stocktock.ning.com/profiles/blogs/spx-cycles. Every 41 or 42 says, SPX tends to make a major low. Also, each cycle seems to have 1-2-3-4 waves (two waves up and two waves down).
November 11th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
Awesome Thanks !!!
November 11th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
Can you share what the next few dates are Rocky ?
November 11th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
I added 41 trading days to Nov 2nd and came up with December 29th as a low point. That’s a bit far away.
The way I am playing it is assuming the market will go up for 12 days (from Nov 2nd) and fall for 8 days. It will then go up for 12 days and fall for 8 days making a low in late December.
By the above calculations, we should make the high on Nov 18th.
does anyone know if this still could qualify as a double top on the spy
November 11th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Double top criteria:
-Two tops within 3% in value
-Must be significant time separating the two
-Volume should be diminishing
last chance to go long before SPX rockets to 1125 by eow. Be long and be strong! My royal straight flush hand is short whack loads of Q puts and S calls.
at this rate i dont think i’ll take any positions into tomorrow.
Nice Mr. Topstep video… they are selling the S&Ps hard at 1108 and Dow at 10365 if it makes it there… the expect back to the 900s if there is another break of 1082 S&P.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhR1MuXfv_0
…..My RIMM order was just filled….triggered at 65….January CALLs…let’s see how it will work in a couple of days
sold 200 shares of FAS @ 80.50 (up 3.21% from my entry @ 78.00 yesterday); +$500.00
What a neutral day. Where is Zee? His an interesting character for this forum.
November 11th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
vacation
November 11th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
my mama said my daddy went on vacation -forest gump
November 11th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
I think Zee is from Montreal, I think I should see him in person. Might fly over there in the near future.
November 11th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
No, non, nes’pa. . . he is a prop trader in london england comutes to work
from mom’s laptop in montreal?
Don’t matter, he’s right way more often than i, he’s makin. i’m breakin.
Hard to say who is fibbin’(nacchi) and who is just plain deluded. I have
never seen a bull run last this long, this must be a record. At least the
market has slowed to gain only 1/2 percent a day instead of 2-3 as is the
custom.
Betting farm on GMCR to downside. Might as well go out with bang.
November 11th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
Well Palladin, have you ever seen interest rates this low in history? I think people with fundamental market values are dumbfound as well. I was bearish far too long since March. I hold CAD and USD, but BOC’s Mark Carney being a ex-Goldman Sachs I don’t know whats going through his head. I think Western Canada (Commodity based economy) should split with the east haha.
for those that have stockcharts.com :
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p17057632453&a=181738042
nasty coiling…
November 11th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
what does that mean for the market
November 11th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
it means neither bull nor bear is in control at the current moment. something has to give.
November 11th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
posted the updated chart up at the top for those that don’t have stockcharts
November 11th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Is this 8 or 9 straight days up a record?
If it is it suggests a bottom and not a top, we could surge another 25% to the
upside over 60 days. I just can’t see any news that could stop this rally to
get in.
November 11th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
Woo:
What is your interpretation of a stock which has risen rapidly on light volume but has had large red candles at the end of the day for several days. I hope that’s not a stupid question.
Thanks
November 11th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
for me, i rely more on where the candles fall to, and where the rapid rise hit resistance. there may be others that pay more attention to volume.
rapid rising, and then red candles at EOD can just be seen as profit taking. i guess it would depend on if the large red candle went back to the base or not.
not a stupid question at all. noticing trends are important. some people make big money playing trends.
November 11th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
My system may be ready to fire a sell signal on the DOW pretty soon. I haven’t seen this signal firing off since October 2007. The only reason I shorted on October 19 was because I had advanced warning from my system that the VIX was a buy. We’ll see how that works out.
I am still holding AXP short, insanity isn’t it? I sold my AXP call options today for some cash and bought calls at higher strike, effectively raising my AXP short sale price up to $40.50
I see AXP ripping higher again tomorrow. For those who cannot bear the pain, please do yourself a favor and buy AXP call options to hedge. For those who can endure the pain or hedged like I did, when AXP comes down, and it will come down, it could come down hard.
November 11th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
how does your system work
November 11th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
For sell signals:
I use an alignment of 10 moving averages, shorter time frame MAs must be greater than longer time frame MAs, and the day’s closing high should be greater than the shortest time frame MA. That’s criteria #1. Criteria #2 is the exhaustive setup on the RSI, stochastic, and DPO. Criteria #3 is the stochastic must be greater than 75 (overbought) but less than 95 (otherwise the momentum can kill your shorts). These signals, due to their stringent criteria, don’t fire too often. Since 2000, sell signal has only been fired on AXP 5 times, with the one on June 4 2007 yielding the most successful result ($65 -> $12 when a buy signal was generated). Losers are stopped out with less than 2% loss, while winners, well, see the above. GS sell signal on October 14 2009 would have given me good profit on a 14% drop in less than one month.
Buy signal:
Criteria #1 remains the same, but inverse. Positive divergence on MACD, DPO, and selling pressure exhaustive pattern on the RSI. Stochastic must be less than 20, or RSI below 10.
These signals generate 85% success rates, and like I said losers get stopped out with less than 2% loss. I am still developing a warning signal to go along with buy/sell signal to warn me to close positions. I will be posting these signals on my blog, which is still a work in progress.
November 11th, 2009 at 9:43 pm
That post took awhile to post. I appreciate the time taken. gracias
November 11th, 2009 at 11:38 pm
Sounds awesome to me … so what tells you to get stopped out Fritz ?
Also, can you elaborate on criteria #2 >
TIA
November 11th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
Good luck, u r one of the best timers here and i wish u luck.
I just can’t and don’t see any way to fight the fed, if i get bearish i will increase
my GLD or SLV holdings. If market tanks the dollar will be sold by fed to
levitate market. Just get this feeling that as a short you are feeding this
beast – - – AT HIGHER LEVELS !!!
HOPE TO HELL that u are right, i hate this market but can’t afford to fight
it. Just remember a blow off top could take us (yikes) 15% higher here.
November 11th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
I am with you on AXP i had to dump about 50% today. It was just too much pain seeing loss in 18k+ I will not look at this sucker once i get out… I love trading FAS, UYM, GG, SRS and SDS…
I wish I have NOT traded for last 4 weeks. Here is how I did in past 4 weeks:
AXP 18k loss (still holding half)
Bidu 22k loss shorted at 376 out at 426
GG 12k+ loss shorted at 37.15 out 40.75
AMZN 14k loss shorted at 109 out at 119.25
UYM 17k profit short/long
SDS 10k profit long
FAS 7k profit
I am down approx 32k
November 11th, 2009 at 8:31 pm
Hi Fritz,
I agree AXP is setting up for a fall. I sold Nov 41 calls today and will sell Dec calls if we do indeed head higher. Trading outside upper bollinger at present but huge base from which this took off at 35 so it isn’t a sure thing but what is.
November 11th, 2009 at 10:43 pm
nastrades,
You WILL make it up in the near future my friend. I got burned trying to short and front run so I gave up and only go long if I need to.
take care
As an amateur for the past few days this week I posted several post and said that big boys are going to push this market a few point above 1101 and then market will tank. Well today market exactly did what I have been saying. In my opinion market will do this type of actions for a couple more times before rolling over, so next time they may push it to 1110 and then dump again. Good opportunities to make interday trades.
November 11th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
At what point did the market tank today? The S&P500 was in the green all day.
let’s see but you will see another gap UP tomrw morning, and this time, it will just go….no turning around. i expect the bears will show an exhaustive covering tomrw….mark my words, spx at 1125 by eow.
November 11th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
1200 by eoy i doubt it but hey been wrong for 4 months now.
November 11th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
According my favorite indicator we are in the middle of the bullish cycle…
So…from 104 to 110 -> about +5.7%
104 and 2 X 5.7% -> about 116
Maybe it will top by this level
November 11th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Can you give more details on this ?
November 11th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
My favorite indicator is the 2nd chart (stochastic against PPO 21/89). It seldom fails….
http://www.freestockcharts.com/?emailChartID=086478fe-3f32-4cee-adcf-bf9f3ea74d74
November 11th, 2009 at 11:40 pm
keep seeing the BAC chart …
November 11th, 2009 at 11:41 pm
OK I see what you are talking about …. how do you use this ? never used PPO before …
BTW I sold my BAC calls today … you still holding ?
November 11th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Nah, tomorrow they whipsaw the bulls, clearing out their stops and then it will be back up to new highs next week.
Woo – could you also look at GOOG and share your thoughts … bought some lottery longs DEC 640 at 1.06 …
BTW – my lottery long from BIDU earnings BIDU 500 DEC call1 contract – bought at 1.45 sold at 3.10 ( I paniced when it tanked … otherwise could have gotten 4.10 earlier in the day …. woulda coulda shoulda ///
November 11th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
i’ll try and include that in the next intraday later tonight.
November 11th, 2009 at 7:56 pm
Sounds awesome to me
Thanks a ton !!
November 11th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
great job on BIDU! =P
November 11th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
Thanks – but maybe i should have held …
you always end up second guessing yourself ….
Dumb trade of the day time. . . .
Shorted Jr Gold index via doub inverse HGD.TO @ 4.165 on flyer. . . . last time gold made
this extensive a move up-up-up and way for 9 conseq days while underlying stocks stayed
down or nuetral. . . . gold reversed and dropped 6% in 3 days.
Today gold cash surged $15 while ABX the largest unhedged producer fell .05
so much for the theory that gold juniors will outperform cash gold.
Can someone confirm the bullish chart on PLD for me. Just broke above resistance. Thanks in advance.
Also, is that a true cup and handle break out on the daily? If so, is that generally a reliable set-up?
Palladi, What company you are subscribed to? Does anyone else know any good company that is providing good advice for thier subscribers?
November 11th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
http://www.goldenticker.com/
November 11th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
sad to say, the really good sub services are bear on market and maybe bullish on
gold or individual oils (which have now peaked and then some imho).
The really good ones like cyber9.com are 11-1200 a month, beyond my reach
at present. ElCheapo sites like bespoke leave the decisions to you but set up
some nice inside moves.
At risk of sounding like a real creep, a lowlife. . . . a few of us also “use” full serv
brokers (the sob’s give up some excellent pics!!!) and buy on discounters. At the
party we have glusken sheff BMO and a few choice big name guys.
They do some good research and have given me picks they would bank on
like Conseco at .75 (too risky at 25 as might fail) CNO now $5.50 broker was
screaming sell half at 2.20 Ford at 1.55 came on his big best buy list and a
sell at $5 (who knew?)
AVOID LIKE PLAGUE: Tiger Financial, still bearish after 20 years and still short
from bottom of 666.
BTW, how much and what are your objectives? You short and losing money?
Sometimes a full serv borker is not as crazy as some ‘big shots’ here would
think.
Even the best advisers have bad years, decades or lifetimes.
Hedge funds? Sprott Asset in toronto is fantastic. guy running it is insane
but delivered 45% in 2005/5/6 before i got nervous and ran in late 06 when he
was on the front page of local finacial pages.
If you are lousy at stocks try currencies. u short the dollar, long the canuck
and cover every 4 days/ yeah, that easy. The japan yen trade early this year
made me 450% in a month.
If that sounds nuts i longed the DMark when the wall came down and was up
800% in linear mode. I might stay clear of currencies for years while waiting
for the canuck buck to explode or the aussie to rally.
this will get people yelling here, but currencies make more sense, bad news
is down, weak is down, its not like stocks and the manipulation you see as a
matter of kinder-trading.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:42 pm
I like inthemoneystocks.com – love their daily video – though they have a slight bearish bias but great learning as well …
November 11th, 2009 at 6:28 pm
” good advice ” is there such a thing
November 11th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
Search my tip for trading off cramers after hours touts. Simple, fast, easy cash
money at the end of each day/
Sub to his service at the street dot com
buy his picks at 3:15
sell to his fools, lol, in the a/h market for a 12% markup, no shorting involved, low
risk and high profit and probability.
Only stressful part is that assholes voice and knowing you are taking candy from
stock-babies. I had to stop after 5 months, my son now runs that scam after lost
his job. Best month was 10K worst was 4 and no losing month.
Back test it if u don’t beleive me!!!
Look at the volume on this whole last run. Smaller and smaller every day. A healthy market does not go up 7% in markedly declining volume.
Fund mangers are forced to make the wrong plays at tops and bottoms exasperating the moves because the average Joe is throwing money their way when the markets are going up and pulling it out as markets tank. The Chicago futures boys think all the up Mondays are due to infows to funds on Fri, Sat, and Sunday that has to be put to work. They are calling the S & P at 1150 by year end.
If the Fed wants to liquify this market to 1200 they will pay the price on the flip side.
Its not a question of “If” only “when” and seeing alot of people change to a more positive stance could indicate we should be close if not in time at least in numbers.
November 11th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
All healthy markets go up. Forget volumes, they are often the signs of tops or
bottoms.
Don’t know where u learnt stocks, but rule is don’t lose money and forget rules
if they lose money. Your observation is not a factor, its a lame excuse, sorry for
being blunt.
If you see huge up on volume, beware. If you see big down on volume, get long.
IS IT SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND THAT ALL THAT BULLSHIT LAST NOV
AND THIS MARCH WAS TO GAME GOV’T AND GET SOME BAIL OUTS ?
THEY LIED !!!!
GET OVER IT AND GET UNDER IT.
Is this rally a phony lie and manipulation of shorts/fear? Yup, of course, yes!!!
Should you feed it by going short and broke? If you must, go ahead.
This can all fall apart in a few days, all life on earth wiped out but i can bet a few
million that it won’t be tomorrow. write puts on that.
Like someone said on this board, those who went short the Naz at 4500 were wrong for a short while but won huge if they stayed the course. Charts don’t lie and they are screaming what the bigger move should be. I don’t have to be right short term if I win the long term play.
November 11th, 2009 at 8:46 pm
I would rather have shorted the Naz at 4500 on the way back down, rather than on the way up.
thinking of shorting gold/ dollar bounce play
November 11th, 2009 at 8:20 pm
don’t do it, trade is bound to fail. . . . i bought short gold double index on close
HGD.TO
so its sure to fail. I just can’t beleive how far and fast gold has gone without stox
keeping up that produce it. Either super bull or bearish?
hi woo..
ok, this is beaten to death…but can you take a look at BAC again..last nights chart kinda teetering…its at the 50 retrace now from mid oct to early nov…just hit the 50 and backed off …still under the 50 day…so now what?
does it head south..i think its a 12 dollar stock but getting there is giving me grays.
appreciate your time and comments.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
I was long from 14.70 – sold today ….
Another gold video from Adam. $1120 now.
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold1110/
November 11th, 2009 at 9:58 pm
Besides gold, I have gold/silver miners IAG BVN HL CDE PAAS QMM.
Am using stops on them, but not too tight.
November 11th, 2009 at 10:10 pm
Also very bullish on oil. sees oil going to 95 to 96. I tend to agree with him.
Of course oil/commodities that high that would be very detrimental to “green shoots”
USD is not going to become exactly rare and precious anytime soon. Don’t buy it, and don’t bet against gold, IMO.
November 11th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
Gold Price Change due to Weakening of US Dollar +0.80
Gold Price Change due to Predominant Buying +2.20
Gold Price: Total Change+3.00
For the next month and a half day and swing traders will enjoy the 10min buy
sell signals but watch a cross over of the 20dma by the 4dma. These are the easy pickens days and the only one that should lose are the 3xers. Be a bull and sell when the price cross the BB on the 10 min. Then weight for the next buy signal. Opposite will make you money too. Nothing better than the holidays. Many forget the beautiful momentum it creates on a daily basis.
Good luck all…..except you permabears!
PS: I’m a Veteran so may I say…..May God Bless America!