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Nice run up today. The futures are down a bit, but the pink trend line above the 5 minute 50ma is not that strong a trend line, and I am leaning more towards a rise into the first 2-3 hours of the morning to the 1115 area. I would consider the 1115 area a good short term short/put position, but we’re so close to the possible top of P2 that it might be better just to wait out the market action and stick to individual stocks that are overbought or showing more secure long term trend line/fib hits.
Let’s try and watch the comments on the board. Try and keep it stock related and try not to poke at individuals if you can help it. We don’t want this to become a yahoo board. Thanks everyone!
Still sitting 100% short for 21 straight sessions now, and feeling very comfortable, although 5-6% down on all my positions. My feeling is we erase all upward gains from yesterday plus some by the closing bell.
November 24th, 2009 at 8:49 am
You are like the bear counterpart to bullish bear here; his posts always predict an upward move in the markets and yours always predict a downward move.
I think you guys are flipping coins to make your calls but his has a bull on both sides and yours has a bear on both sides.
Best of luck to both of you though!
November 24th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
Thanks for the comment Morris, it made me smile. I was long for most of the summer, but have just had a strong feeling about a correction coming for the past several weeks. With an hour left today, I still feel we close deep in the red today.
November 24th, 2009 at 9:21 am
I am with you, but i am down alot more than 6%
November 24th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Don’t worry nastrades, you’ll get it back in spades, and very soon!
While some slight upside could remain, the overbought stocks should see significant downside these next 2 weeks. I believe gold is forming a blow off top and should collapse very soon, AXP is a stock I see strong downside in. Amzn is on that list too. You should look for financials to underperform the market significantly in the next week.
November 24th, 2009 at 9:20 am
Idan, something strange I notes today with AXP pre-market.. no one is trading it! normally pre-market vol is above 15 to 25k but today 450shares traded only!
November 24th, 2009 at 9:22 am
I am massively short. The market topped out sometime back in terms of real money (chart $SPX:$GOLD) and the hybrid indicators (such as $BPFINA:$VIX, to go along with Idan’s and Meredith Whitney’s dim prognosis for financials) look pretty grim. That strange “Big Wet” guy’s 11/22 video (linked here a couple of days ago) had some perceptive, if amateurishly made, TA showing longer-term trends and resistances to supplement Idan & woo’s ideas about topping.
Of course, our leaders may offer an infinite supply of liquidity, no matter what canaries are dying in the coal mines, so I may again learn the hard way that “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
TO TROLLS: We do still have our “Delete” and “Edit” buttons. You will not be allowed to change StockTock into an extension of yahooliganism. Clean up your manners and your language (some members have little kids who read this site), and support your assertions with evidence and logic. OR ELSE.
November 24th, 2009 at 9:29 am
Free charts to supplement the above:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$GOLD
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPFINA:$VIX
November 24th, 2009 at 9:30 am
Just like a number of other bears, that Big Wet guy has been calling tops using TA for months. He has been holding FAZ since around 50.
November 24th, 2009 at 9:48 am
Don’t be hatin’ on the triple nut!
November 24th, 2009 at 9:56 am
Ha, I’m not hatin’ on the guy. He is free to make whatever calls that he sees and he will be right at some point. I respect him for putting his calls out there for all to see.
November 24th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
Morris, a quick question…are you still holding the DZZ? Thanks!
November 24th, 2009 at 11:51 am
Very nice to see you back here Uner.
For all- the TraderFeed site also is worth a pre-market read.
November 24th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
Can you share the link Val ?
Any thoughts on GOOG?
I’ll probably get back into UCO this morning if we see 13.00 or lower but I don’t feel super confident about it.
November 24th, 2009 at 9:49 am
I’m looking at UCO and ERX for entry points, but it looks like USO has just broken below its previous trading range over the past month… It may be better to wait a little on this one until we ascertain that the range is still valid.
November 24th, 2009 at 9:52 am
That is definitely the safe way to play it. However, I am going to trade the pattern until it breaks definitively.
November 24th, 2009 at 9:57 am
November 24th, 2009 at 10:00 am
That is a good plan. I may add another 1000 to my UCO position at some point today. Best of luck to you!
1000 UCO @ 12.85 (not a high confidence entry)
November 24th, 2009 at 10:08 am
what’s next support for uco &uso?
November 24th, 2009 at 10:15 am
Maybe some of the guys/gals that do TA on oil can answer this. Anjali?
November 24th, 2009 at 10:47 am
I’m playing UCO again at $12.70. My sell stop will be just under the low of the day at $12.45.
November 24th, 2009 at 10:52 am
Petro report tomorrow-inventory increase expected-I am seeing 12.38 next support on uco?
1105.55 is the area to watch currently.
November 24th, 2009 at 9:46 am
could just see some consolidation between this 200ma and 50ma for a while.
200ma – 1097.4
i’m going to go back to sleep.
November 24th, 2009 at 9:47 am
linkable version:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p71720882380&a=181738042
10:00 reversal.
November 24th, 2009 at 10:03 am
,,, or not. Just some clown who put in a massive buy order at 10 AM. We’ll see.
picked up another 1000 UCO @ 12.55
November 24th, 2009 at 10:15 am
Bought more UCO @12.58. GL.
November 24th, 2009 at 10:30 am
Are you both adding on the hit of the bottom of the channel or soemthing else as well ?
November 24th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Anjali,
Looking at my chart, It “almost” hit the bottom of the channel. What are you seeing here?
November 24th, 2009 at 10:34 am
What is a channel?
November 24th, 2009 at 10:42 am
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tradingchannel.asp
November 24th, 2009 at 10:45 am
I was kidding (hence the smiley).
November 24th, 2009 at 10:48 am
This link is better:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/020905.asp
November 24th, 2009 at 10:56 am
You are bad
November 24th, 2009 at 10:31 am
I’m in for 3000 at 12.58. Is crude oil breaking the lower trading range though?
November 24th, 2009 at 10:34 am
It could be breaking out of the range to the downside or the range could be shifting downward with time. There is no way to know for sure until it plays out. Best of luck to you!
November 24th, 2009 at 10:40 am
We hit the bottom of the channel @ 38.45 and the daily 50 MA at 38.57 and seem to be bouncing from there … 38.76 is resistance and needs to be recaptured as quickly as possible … then next resistances around 39.40 …
Morris what is your tgt on this UCO this time round ?
November 24th, 2009 at 10:50 am
my target is 13.20 minimum but I am going to be very cautious on the long side (with oil and any other long trades)
November 24th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Anjali,
I am seeing a large bull flag is developing on the USO, are you holding UCO to play the breakout? If yes, what is your target on USO?
November 24th, 2009 at 11:04 am
Anitang,
I have been waiting for this bull flag to break to the upside and i have been waiting a LONG time
the moment I sell it will rocket up..so wait till I sell 
I see a support arround 38 for USO.
November 24th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Ani – I think JON and me have been waiting forever for that bull flag to play out … it seems like you and Morris played / too profits within that bull flag and made $$ while we stubbornly held to our positions
I was almost at breakeven yest with my UCO calls, down 50% this am … however I did add in my last batch, based on expecting a bounce off the double support i.e. channel bottom and 50MA on daily ….
Right now, if we move to the top of the channel, that is at 40.50 … a breakout of bull flag first tgt is 42, then 44.50 … however in the interst of being cautios, I will play this till the top of the channel, and be quick to take profits, if I do not see a breakout …
Of course, as soon as I sell, we will breakout
… so that is why I will sell 50% at the top of the channel at least …
Hope this helps …
November 24th, 2009 at 10:40 am
looks like the bottom of the channel is about 12.5, a break much below that could be a larger trend change
November 24th, 2009 at 11:05 am
I second that. UCO @12.38, I’m out.
November 24th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Jon,
Don’t capitulate
We are almost there 
November 24th, 2009 at 11:25 am
Anjali,
This may be the last shake out of weak hands before the breakout to the upside. Okay, if USO does not break the $38 support level, I am in to wait for the bull flag to play out. Good luck to all of us
November 24th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Yes – I think it was consolidating in a bull flag to touch the 50 MA on the daily …. so I think this move up should be it … but want to be careful …
I did learn one imp lesson that we can also play a big channel to make $$
Good luck to all of us
November 24th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
I am stubborn this time around ) I am glad I am playing with house money but still its my money! I will wait it out.
thanks for the encouragement.
November 24th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Mine is not house money – but still holding
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Interesting read (IMO)
November 24th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
Thanks for sharing the link.
Like the author, I think transports will push the down button on the elevator.
November 24th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Thnx for the link. Do you subscribe to the stocktiming updates and if so- are they worth a read??
500 FAZ @ 19.8, crossing right now
http://stocktiger.com/live/faz15.php
DXY catching a bid here.
200 GDX @ 51.00
Curse these new fx margin req , got margin called overnight with a strong downdraft in the USD/JPY *grumbles*. Ah well time to rebuild my position from scratch (still made a profit overall). Opened up a couple short positions on the EUR – GBP . I don’t see any reason for the market to sail higher. GDP was revised down as we all knew it would be. More importantly the multi year bear market trend line on the DJI has held. You can toss all this new bull market hype out the window till that line gives way.
I’m also still holding my FAZ position I opened at 19.62. Feel no reason to exit. We have 3 days till black friday you will be able to tell how the christmas season is going to go right there. All day friday traders will be calling their friends in the retail space to see just how black friday sales went. So I will be using Friday as an indicator of the overall direction for Dec.
Hi all. Question for those in between trades.
Has the frequency of stocks ‘closing the gap’ increased with the increase in electronic trading?
November 24th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
good question. i have no idea. but did you see what SRS did yesterday? how can a stock gap like that and close it and trade a gazillion shares at the close. that was absolutely crazy.
November 24th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
I just looked at yesterday’s SRS – yeah- good example. A week ago (2 wks maybe) BTU fell fast on a morning when oil and gold were ticking up; exactly closed a gap and then reversed and roared back up. I’ve been tracking AIG with these moves. Missed some good early AM scalps with that one.
Guys – we are consolidating in a triangle since yesterday … should see resolution this afternoon … this will be a big move …
November 24th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Cannot say which way it will break… we will only know that when the triangle breaks … but this could be a 1-1.5% move either way …
November 24th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
FOMC minutes out at 2. Could be the driver behind the move.
November 24th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Great – thanks for sharing … that’s where the apex is around 2-2.30 … it should resolve around that time …
300 ERX @ 40.00
This is a very risky play; the market looks pretty weak here. However, I’ve had a decent month so I’m ok with taking some risk here. Stepping out for a few hours; best of luck to all!
November 24th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
Best of luck to you as well Morris! I am with you on the UCO trade (in at $12.55) but missed the ERX entry when it went under $39. It feels like a toss-up on market direction at this point, so I will wait and see on ERX for now… thanx again for sharing!
November 24th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
So I now have 600 shares at an average of 42.00 but I also have the distribution coming to me on the 30th (300 shares x 4.649 per share = $1394.70).
November 24th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
GL on the trades Morris. I’m wondering if you’re still holding the dzz? Thanks!
November 24th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
I am still holding the DZZ (unfortunately). I don’t need the funds for anything else right now so I can afford to be patient.
November 24th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Thanks Morris, I actually bought in the day before you!
(have some long gold positions though)
looks like my 1097 hit on the dot. still don’t expect huge amounts of movement today unless we get out of this channel.
November 24th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
which channel woo – pink and white trendlines ?
There could also be a new one connecting the tops … the top will coincide with 1115 now … or slightly higher ….
10 point band. i have buy stops at 1106 and sell stops at 1096….i’m currently long but will be adding to the longs on the upside break and bailing out to the downside break. will be aggressively short if below 1090, aggressively long above 1110. game plan…. but definitely long biased right now. be long or be wrong!
——— WEEKLY ** BAC ** CHART ——— when i scan charts i use the daily and weekly charts 20/40 with Bollinger Bands.
– FEB 16 PUT BAC —- $1.34 i normally dont short well known bank stocks but this chart sets up nicely. BEAR flag rising on declining volume. huggin the 20week moving average. PBI remains bullish on the weekly chart so im ready to take profits if it does not fail the key WEEKLY MOVING averages.
November 24th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
Thanks Richard will look at this one
November 24th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
hi richard,
can you provide a link..i’m in BAC puts and i don’t see hugging the 20 but rather the 50..maybe i’m looking at something different. i’ve got the front months puts and jan puts. lets hope for some drop in the next week or so..the financials XLF is in a head and shoulders and this should drop accordingly.
GLTU
World Oil Demand Growth To Outpace Supply In 2010 ?
By ITMS News on November 24th, 2009 12:03pm Eastern Time
According to a Reuters poll of ten top oil-tracking analysts and organizations, oil demand is predicted to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day next year to 85.9 million bpd
42B 5 yr bond auction draws 2.175 percent and 2.81 cover
I just went long oil…it’s worth a shot here.
—– OIL WEEKLY —- looks bullish.
—– OIL DAILY —- looks st bearish as the flag continues descent
before oil popped in October it consolidated in a similar fashion for 9 weeks. we are on our 6th week of this consolidation. holding the 20 week moving avg. in HOU.TO
worth a shot buying HOU.TO here with a stop below the 20week.
November 24th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Welcome to the club
November 24th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
what is the 20 week?
November 24th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Bought some at $9.15, HOU.TO.
Webinar link: http://bit.ly/5ud6bT Starting at 3:30 PM CT today.
erx was a great buy at 38.70s-39.00 hit the long term trend line EXACTLY:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ERX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p62595601024&a=181587766
November 24th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
I asked this last week what is the best price to get in but never heard back from you
and I missed a nice trade
November 24th, 2009 at 9:05 pm
apologies! sometimes it’s hard to keep up with everything. tomorrow is a new day =)
November 24th, 2009 at 9:39 pm
It was a strange situation with ERX on Friday because of the big downward price modification (the result of the short term capital gains distribution). That trend line in Woo’s chart would not have been hit if the distribution had not happened so the move was artificial to some extent.
I posted an ERX entry today @ 40.00 and you could have picked it up lower than that after my post. Unless it gaps up big tomorrow, I don’t see that you have really missed much of a trade yet.
IWM about to drop through the EMA(50 day) 58.89 despite weak dollar
Confirm through today’s close?
IOC interoil breaking out like crazy !!!!!
Watch CNOOC make a $79 offer after the close, WOW !!!
November 24th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
That is not the real Zee. BTW Palladin, I don’t trade individual stocks, they are subject to fundamentals and hence you could be right about market direction but still wrong as you are subject to individual stock risk (Expected & Unexpected News).
I allocate most of my portfolio to either short/long the USD$, and short/long the SPY. I might add options or go on leverage with SDS/SSO.
The only time I’ll add stock is when I feel a big move is coming, even then I stick to blue-chips.
November 24th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
can we just ban that guy’s IP? This thing runs on apache web server, there’s a way to do it.
November 24th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Zee – are you still seeing this correction playing out or do you think we are dealing with an inversion to make a Dec 1 high ?
November 24th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
I still see a correction since we are still below Nov 16ths cycle high.. as long as 1130 is not taken out you should start to see some 1% down gaps… If 1130 get’s taken out I will cover my shorts for a 2% loss and will reload on December 1st.
If the market does make a high on December 1st, there’s a high probability of us making a 3-5 month top.
here is how im positioned.. will likely everything but UUP at 1075.
Symbol Position Initial Price Shares
CIT L $ 0.28 1000
DOW L $23.54 755
SSS.V L $0.12 10012
UUP Long $22.25 5000
SPY Short $111.00 1000
SDS Long $35.65 2000
SNV Long Stock $2.01 1400
VXX L $38.63 220
HUGE flare in UCO 13.31
November 24th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
13.21 I meant is the 50DMA on 10min
November 24th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
One of the guys I follow on another site in conversation with me on EW for USO …
It looks like USO made the same b wave triangle as $WTIC. So the c leg down is playing out right now. Could be finished today or tomorrow. Oil could rise from around $75 to around 85. USO could go to 42 (double top).
Time frame? Somewhere within 5 – 10 trading days.
I joined you in that USO trade. Difficult to say where bottom should exactly be. From the structure, the c wave looks oK and could be finished anytime.
November 24th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Jon – I don’t see the flare – but sound promising …
November 24th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
I am on ameritrade stratergy desk its on the 10min, 3min and 1min. Hope it plays out
November 24th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Me too … but I dont see it wierd
November 24th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
What’s this flare everyone keeps referring too?
November 24th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
A sudden spike in price which is probably a false print of some sort ..
November 24th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
You know what, I always wondered about that. It happened for aapl today too. So it that any kind of an indication like high volatility?
Triangle breakout in progress … not as strong as I’d like but moving up …
ERX is looking good so far. It should really move if oil catches a bid (but that is a big if).
uco is not participating in the move up – seems to be lagging in a bear flag….
November 24th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
yep, oil is looking very weak at this point.
November 24th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Yes – it is forming a triangle … if it can’t break 38.64, then it may go down and test channel bottom against at 38.2 …
I hope not though …
November 24th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
Guys, this triangle could be a 4th wave … with a mini 5th wave down to 75 to flush out the last weak hands …. be careful here …. not sure what that level is on USO – but should correspond around 38.2 on USO I think …
fiddling with trend line…
— MORE THAN CONFUSING FOR ME —
market green . SRS green. BAC red. PBI green?
November 24th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
—- OIL ——– $75.80 SUPPORT
just triggered my buy stops so bot more spx calls…..likely to sit long into tomrw.
Nice USO flare to 39.25 …. its not showing anymore now ….
November 24th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
oil could be headed to test 75
November 24th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Yes – I said that above – see #31 ..
November 24th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
bounced off $75.80 twice. good enough.
November 24th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
I am hoping the same, but this triangle and our inability to bounce strongly has put some doubt in my head …
November 24th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
should know by tomorrow 10:30 am which direction oil will go
———– BAC ————- ive been watching the trade all day. every week the trade volume is getting lighter. today is no exception. lighter than average volume. just holding up.
$16.14 is the 20MA on the WEEKLY chart and it is trading at $16.15. the bulls are barely doing enough to hold this MA for the last FIVE WEEKS. guess we flip a coin on whether the volume comes in on the buy or sell side. the chart says sell.
Leaving a little early today; will hold everything overnight. Have a good one!
i did what i do best! trust my guts and went long overnight! i like the last uptick on the 5min candle….this thing will go to at least 1113 and if it breaks above 1113, this thing will fly to 1120~1130 region.
a good video on TA for oil, produced 11/19, but still valid, except we are now sitting on the edge of support at 76 for Jan futures – a break of this resistance could be a game changer
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/crudeoil1119/
November 24th, 2009 at 11:03 pm
Thanks
SPY actually closed up today smack dab on the giant bear trend line that I’ve referred to ad nauseum.
We should move down tomorrow, but assuming a light volume day they (or the market) may take this opportunity to gap it above resistance tomorrow and then we can have a push higher, maybe a blow off top, who knows.
I would love to see a gap above resistance tomorrow, we can finally get some strong movement upward next week, capitulate all the bears, then we can start P3.
GOLD– 1175.1
I remember so many people talked about GLD going to 1200 back at 880 due to U.S Federal Reserve printing tons of money.. I did not think it would go up so quick………………………
November 24th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
Hey, rip van zeenkle just woke up and realized a 30% price swing that nice
and well manner Paladin has been spouting for weeks.
I think smart money outside of Iran’s Council is buying SGR.V and IOC.
Price is up, gold and silver opened up 1% in kong hong. Gotta go, playing
Midnight at the Oasis , , , , right after rocken the Kashbah.