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26
Nov
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12:45pm
Market is pushing up from it’s ABC correction earlier today, if it can clear 110.25… we can be in for another push higher… My stops lie around 110.50.. and something similar for my other shorts..
12:22pm
Market is about to close, but even if it closes at these levels, it doesn’t look that great for the bulls. I do believe we have more downside to go, the reason we got this rally was because the futures were so oversold. My guess is we at least touch the support of the megaphone in the next week or so, which is 3-4% lower from where we are.
11:44am
Spy 120 minute shows the megaphone formation… i’m not sure if the move up from the 2.5% drop is a bull trap or a bear trap, but I do believe we are going to be aiming for the support very soon:
11:31am
We have seen significant pushes up from the start of the day, many people i know already got stopped out with profits and are willing to go short yet again. I suggest you have stops with profits, if you’re in DZZ and entered it at 12, you better have a stop at around 12.20 for some profit.
12:24am
Futures are to the downside quite significantly. This will be very interesting, it looks like the megaphone i have had for the last 2-3 weeks has been working out very nicely.
Idan: Hey guys, i’m back from my business trip. Markets are closed today for thanksgiving and will be open until 1pm tomorrow. I wanted to say that while i was away I was still keeping track of the markets, and every once in a while I would point out different positions that I was going into. I wanted to go ahead and give you a breakdown of my portfolio as of last night:
Short GLD at 116.60 (37% of portfolio)
Short AMZN at 133.20(7% of portfolio)
Short AXP 42.10 (12% of portfolio)
Short SPY at 110.80 (10% of portfolio)
These are all pretty big positions to the downside, but I still have some cash to add to my shorts as I believe a strong correction of at least 5% to as high as 20% on the SPY is coming, and one of at least 10% in gold is close. I understand the frustration in waiting for this to happen, but we have hit my targets yesterday and so I believe it’ll happen sooner rather than later. If you want to hedge yourself.. you can buy some out of the money calls, i bought the december SPY 115 (very small position around 1%) but shorted 2% of the SPY 113 Jan calls. I will have a video up sometime soon!
buying more spx calls here …. do you trust my instinct that we are closing green today?
November 27th, 2009 at 11:33 am
Are you really buying more calls? Do you ever take profits?
November 27th, 2009 at 11:34 am
Also, there’s no way we’re closing green today. Although I do expect this gap to get filled soon.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Not impossible. Europe started in the red but ended in the green.
November 27th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
europe was also down 3.5% yesterday..so the green close today that your talkin about was meaningless..
November 27th, 2009 at 11:33 am
No. We close between 140-180 down.
November 27th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
Just checked into your posts, good calls throughout the day. I’m with you about a 15%+ pullback by year’s end.
this will rally to at least 200 ma
November 27th, 2009 at 11:40 am
very good bullish bear! i concur. it’s following an H&S pattern with a double top as the peak. 200ma is most likely test around around 1104.
there was a HUGE flare south a little while ago. so i think we might see 1104, and then a big drop south again.
we’ll see…
November 27th, 2009 at 11:49 am
That is what I am thinking too aboujt upside…
Woo – where are you thinking this drops to ?
November 27th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
hard to say. but i bought SPY puts ealrier, a small position to not miss out on the flare. the flare may take 2 days to play out since it’s so large, but it’s ok. if it rises, i will buy in with a larger position. currently have 2.09 position on SPY puts for dec 109 strike.
might consider gold as a hedge.
November 27th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
It seems like the longer these flares take, the less likely they play out. A few days back, there were flares on SPY down to 104, 103 and 102.5.
———- HOU ———— added back the position that got stopped out. now im just taking the rest of the day off. I DONT LIKE MONDAY but i have a variety of positions and ill stay put.
cool, once mkt reaches 200 ma, i will place tight stops around my longs to bail if in case the turn comes….
November 27th, 2009 at 11:48 am
200ma ?? the one at 942 ? what are we talking about here. im confused. was just going to shut down and you are saying the 200ma. for SPX ?
November 27th, 2009 at 11:49 am
200 MA on SPX 10 min is at 110.37
November 27th, 2009 at 11:50 am
Right now 109.68 will be strong support as we confirmed a close above that support level …
flares don’t mean much…I wouldn’t place a lot of emphasis on them..they could be corrected or clearing trades from earlier
closed my MS puts – bought 0.95 closed 1.2 this am … they went upto 1.7 ( but I got greedy
)
Anyone here buying SCO or UCO?
November 27th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
IMVHO, not a good spot to buy both. Better stay in cash.
November 27th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
Did you sell yours or holding ?
November 27th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
See Post #15.
———- HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND ———- need to take a break. profitable day despite the trading glitches. GOOD LUCK everyone.
sold 1000 ERY @ 11.70 (up 6.36% from my entry on Wednesday); +$700.00
just playing it safe here
around 1092.5~1093 = good place to get long….aiming for 1102~1104 region
In cash for the weekend.
November 27th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Small loss on the position trade. Whipsaws suck. I will probably not go long again for many months. I believe we are in a topping process and I will let it play out and go short once we have a confirmed downtrend.
Woo – where did the flare on SPY goto ? I missed seeing it …
I’m done for the day. November has been a decent month. I posted 18 round-trip trades here this month (entries and exits in real time) and 16 were winners. A summary of these trades is posted below. I hope that one or more were helpful to you. Have a great weekend!
11/02 – bought 400 ERX @ 41.00
11/03 – sold 400 ERX @ 43.70 (+6.59%, +$1080.00)
11/04 – bought 200 ERX @ 45.00 and 200 ERX @ 44.00
11/06 – bought 200 ERX @ 44.50
11/09 – sold 600 ERX @ 47.00 (+5.62%, +$1500.00)
11/06 – bought 1000 UCO @ 13.20
11/09 – sold 1000 UCO @ 14.20 (+7.58%, +$1000.00)
11/09 – bought 1000 SCO @ 12.70
11/10 – sold 1000 SCO @ 13.20 (+3.94%, +$500.00)
11/09 – bought 1000 ERY @ 11.10
11/11 – sold 1000 ERY @ 10.80 (-2.70%, -$300.00)
11/10 – bought 200 FAS @ 78.00
11/11 – sold 200 FAS @ 80.50 (+3.21%, +$500.00)
11/12 – bought 1000 TZA @ 12.00
11/12 – sold 1000 TZA @ 12.50 (+4.17%, +$500.00)
11/12 – bought 400 ERX @ 44.90 and 200 ERX @ 44.30
11/13 – sold 600 ERX @ 46.00 (+2.91%, +$780.00)
11/12 – bought 1000 UCO @ 13.12
11/13 – bought 1000 UCO @ 12.88
11/16 – sold 2000 UCO @ 13.60 (+4.62%, +$1200.00)
11/16 – bought 1000 SCO @ 12.87
11/17 – sold 1000 SCO @ 13.02 (+1.17%, +$150.00)
11/13 – bought 500 FAZ @ 20.00
11/16 – bought 500 FAZ @ 18.80
11/18 – sold 1000 FAZ @ 18.80 (-3.09%, -$600.00)
11/17 – bought 1000 SCO @ 12.72
11/18 – bought 1000 SCO @ 12.58
11/19 – sold 2000 SCO @ 13.15 (+3.95%, +$1000.00)
11/19 – bought 200 FAS @ 76.00
11/23 – sold 200 FAS @ 79.00 (+3.95%, +$600.00)
11/19 – bought 1000 UCO @ 13.30
11/20 – bought 1000 UCO @ 13.00
11/23 – sold 2000 UCO @ 13.78 (+4.79%, +$1260.00)
11/24 – bought 1000 UCO @ 12.85 and 1000 UCO @ 12.55
11/25 – sold 2000 UCO @ 13.20 (+3.94%, +$1000.00)
11/19 – bought 300 ERX @ 44.00
11/20 – distribution = +1394.70 (4.649 per share)
11/24 – bought 300 ERX @ 40.00
11/25 – sold 600 ERX @ 42.00 (+5.53%, +$1394.70)
11/24 – bought 200 GDX @ 51.00
11/25 – sold 200 GDX @ 52.87 (+3.67%, +$374.00)
11/25 – bought 1000 ERY @ 11.00
11/27 – sold 1000 ERY @ 11.70 (+6.36%, +$700.00)
November 27th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
Awesome Morris
November 27th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
Sick!
November 27th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
good job!
im 100% flat for the month due to a couple of horrid gap ups in NYT and RSH
going super long into monday….next big focus is the sales data over the weekend….so far looking at my gf, and all her friend behave….this is going to surprise on the upside!
November 27th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
I beg to differ, I think we have a 200 point sell off Monday. The numbers are going to disappoint, people are not buying in this crappy job market. I work in retail for a major store in the Tampa Bay area – the report so far is disappointing.
Sold all UCO @12.67 (bought @12.58 & $13.08). A small loss on this trade.
Have a nice weekend!
We are heading south from here on….I think we will hit within the next two weeks 9700’s. From that point on we will go back to at least 8975 which I think we might hit in the next two months. Use the weekly chart for prediction doji is in place for this week. If we confirm this with a red candle next week (for the week) the leg down as predicted above is in motion.
November 27th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Monday is going to be a bloodbath. Back Friday becomes Black Monday….Sales numbers are going to disappoint as WallStreet gets screwed by Joe Six Pack.
November 27th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Got a feeling we see a 3% plus down day on Monday.
November 27th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
It seems like you have that feeling every day.
By Stephen Cox, CMT
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–So far Friday the flap over Dubai’s attempt to delay
debt repayments is something of a wash for major U.S. indexes. For example,
it’s true that the S&P 500 is nearly 16 points lower on the day. On the other
hand, the index is relatively near the high of the day, which by itself
suggests that a healthy intraday uptrend is coming together.
This development so far squares with the index’s uptrend since last March. In
any case, technical support is not far away. And traders are likely to know the
index’s next direction soon.
On Nov. 16, the S&P 500 recorded the current high for this year’s uptrend,
1113.69. The high virtually nailed formal long-term resistance at 1111.98, as
the weekly chart shows. See chart at
http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3104
This week’s breakdown point, on upsloping channel support, is 1065.61. Given
that the rest of this week’s trading is defined by the Friday closing bell,
traders may appreciate knowing next week’s breakdown support will come in at
1077.69. The point is that a roughly steady S&P will come closer and closer to
a breakdown as time goes by, unless, that is, it rallies decisively to a new
high.
In this situation, traders might note that the S&P’s daily range as of this
writing is between 1105.47 and 1083.74. Use the range mid-point of 1094.60 as
an intraday stop-and-reverse point.
The high for this year’s uptrend of the Dow Industrials is this week’s high
of 10495.60. Breakdown support in the Friday session is 9996.80. But support
will rise to 10102.70 next week.
Finally, the weekly trading for the Nasdaq Composite index is defined by the
uptrend high of 2205.30, which was recorded last week. Breakdown support is
2102.50. Next week it will come in at 2128.60.
flare didn’t fully retrace. but i decided to sell my puts. in at 2.09 sold at 2.35. we’re at a trend line and fib, and i can’t risk it. very good chance of a bigger drop into monday, but i’ll miss out if it does.
November 27th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Woo – where was the flare till ?
November 27th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
south of 108.5 SPY.
but i’m currently out of the trade to lock in profits. i have a friend who is holding over the weekend. i’ll consider buying back in if it rises.
November 27th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
for me it did…
DAX 5720-5620 .. i’ve made put’s . b0,74-s1.2
thanks
Got this from a friend and speaks much to what has transpired–”Men in Black”: “There’s always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they Do… Not… Know about it!” That’s our burden as we discuss the market fundamentals while others party in blissful ignorance – we are the men in black and we do know what’s really going on in the world…”
Interesting day everybody,huh? I wanted to see at least a 2% pullback, and didn’t get that, but was pretty close. However we did close somewhat near the lows of the day which was another of my wishes. My portfolio started the day, down 5% and closed up 3%, finally back in the green. I thought about changing my positions and taking some profits, but decided to be stubborn and hold into Monday.
Got a strong feeling Monday will be a continuation of today, maybe even deeper in the red for all indices. If the market is down another 2% it will most likely put me up nearly 10% on my 2x and 3x bear etfs, and I’ll start taking some profits and switching to some 1x bear funds as Zee suggested. By the way Zee I hope you made a killing today, let me know when you have a chance. Got a feeling the markets spend most of the rest of the year going south.
November 27th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
Excellent points. If they intervene, what is it they will do, just keep killing the dollar and manipulating the markets? I hope not, and I think they’ve somewhat exhausted those angles. In keeping with the 1980s film, I’d like to ‘Throw Bernanke from the train”. Along with those “hero’s’ over at GS that are doing “God’s Work”.
November 27th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
Nice.
I did okay given given the time period
UUP + 0.67%
SPY Shorts + 1.92%
Spy 109 Puts +76.3%
November 27th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
Cool, sounds good Zee. Its funny, I did pretty well with my position trading all year despite the volatility, but the last 2 1/2 months have been really challenging for some reason.
I was up 9% at the end of Q1, up an additional 6% at the end of Q2, up an additional 39% at the end of Q3, ( up a total of 54% at that point and took some serious cash off the table) but was so sure we were gonna have a pullback since the start of Q4 that I’ve been rotating between up 7% to down 10% for Q4 alone ever since, and adding to my positions every 2 weeks or so. Its frustrating, for sure. I guess even if it stays this way for the rest of the year I’ll still be up 45%+ for the year, but I really expected to hit 65% at least. If we have more down days than up days over the next month I’ll be good to go, but if not, I guess we’ll see what next week brings.
November 27th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
Very good points Wasco, and thanks for the advice and praise. Yeah, I agree and feel that while we should have a further sell off its also possible its just another bear trap. However it just seems unlikely that we keep getting 2-4% pullbacks that go no further and are erased within a week. That can’t continue forever I feel, and history shows we should see a 10%+ pullback at some point, and i feel that time is very soon, if not upon is right now. Monday will really show which way we go from here in my opinion. Good luck and thanks again!
November 27th, 2009 at 6:04 pm
Yep, definitely holding 100% short over the weekend, and I have both SRS and TZA.
Nice to see all the bears roaring back on this forum. Its great…lets see what monday brings.
I am still waiting for the data from the guy who said C and BAC has massive exposure to Dubai.
FYI – Dubia has lot of “family friends” around the region-the rulers belong to the same cult! 80billion is peanuts for these guys.
November 27th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
I have to agree on Dubia! I would say even $800 billions won’t be much issue for them! this seem to me a setup for big guys to create some fears so sell off which can create 2 to 5% downside/correction then take it higher like 15%
USD is game player for fed here… I would say they still have room to make this world fool to any level they wish!
November 28th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
Uh-huh. But it sure was a fun-filled way to get the market to correct a little, wasn;t it?
Why do i get the feeling we may rally on Monday again?
November 27th, 2009 at 8:50 pm
I wouldn’t be surprised to see green on Monday but I don’t think it will last. People are on profitable positions for the most part and want to make sure they lock in profits at least on some of their portfolios.
Here is a summary of comments from BMO Capital Markets for some perspective:
“This is still a developing story and we probably won’t figure out all the implications before next Tuesday (after Thanksgiving in the US and religious holidays elsewhere) however, it looks like at least some of the market reaction may be a little overblown in the near term. As you probably know by now, Dubai World, one of three holding companies for Dubai has asked for a six month extension on debt repayments as it tries to restructure some of its real estate related debts. Markets initially reacted as if this was a surprise sovereign default, which it is not. As a part of the restructuring, payment on a bond issued by the country’s biggest real-estate developer, Nakheel, and due in two weeks, will not be made. Instead lenders will be asked to extend maturity to next year. Nakheel is 100% owned by Dubai World, which is 100% owned by the government of Dubai . While Nakheel debt is not guaranteed by either Dubai World or the government of Dubai , there was an expectation in the market that the government would back the issue under all circumstances. Markets are concerned over Dubai ’s reluctance to jump in and ‘explicitly’ guarantee Nakheel and Dubai World signal Dubai itself is in trouble. This called into question where Dubai ’s US$80 billion or so of debt sits, how it is marked, etc. As it turns out, European and Asian banks have the lion’s share of Dubai risk, with much less in the US and almost none in Canada . Nevertheless, global markets have reacted with ‘flight to quality’ trade over the past couple of days. To put things in perspective, Dubai World has about US$22 billion in debt. Ford has US$64 billion and GM has US$34 billion (Ford higher because it still incorporates the credit operation). So the Dubai World problem is smaller than the US auto problem was. In terms of ability to ‘bailout’ the troubled companies, Dubai has far fewer direct resources than the US government, but as a member of the UAE, it will be able to turn to its much wealthier neighbors for support, if needed. Credit markets are weaker this morning, but only marginally. While Nakheel bonds are down about 70 points, North American investment grade credit spreads are weaker by only a few basis points. High Yield bonds, on average are off less than a dollar. Leverage appears to be coming out of the market, so we may see commodities, currencies and stocks correct into next week, but this doesn’t look like another Lehman-like contagion in the making.”
November 27th, 2009 at 11:57 pm
they all said at one time that the subprime problem was a small one and could be contained.
November 28th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
I think what they’re saying is unless there is more evidence that this is more wide spread we shouldn’t think that we’re suddenly going to the March lows, like some people have been saying for the last 6 months, just because this ONE event has occurred. I’m 25% short the market and the rest in cash.
November 28th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
I’m about 30% short, 15% long, and 55% cash. What I’m saying is that by the time the evidence that this is more widespread, the market has already dropped a lot. When the first instance of “subprime” came up, people played it down saying it’s a tiny part of all MBS and nothing to worry about. By the time it was main street lingo, market has tanked by a lot. Not as low as the March lows but still low. The few people I respect at CNBC is D. Faber and he has reported how Dubai COULD be the 1st of many sovereign wealth funds to experience this. He also mentions other more leveraged wealth funds out there who could possibly be more in danger of going under. If Dubai is to Bear Stearns of the subprime mess, there will be other Lehmans. If another domino effect happens this time around, I don’t think the CBs of the world can do anything fast enough to prevent a catastrophe.
Just some thoughts rambling in my head….
November 29th, 2009 at 1:11 am
Thanks for the thoughts jdub. Dubai could be the first but it could also be isolated. That’s why I’m not all short the market. Thankful for TA, this way we can increase our odd somewhat without having to wait for the actual news to come out. I was watching a video of Art Cashin and he was mentioning something about problems in Greece, have you heard anything about that? He was also saying that China could have some over capacity that could cause some funds to be withdrawn from those projects. So he sees all this as potential risk out there, not to mention a possible attack of Israel on Iran.
November 29th, 2009 at 1:19 am
Here is an article on the Greece debt problems:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6630117/Greece-tests-the-limit-of-sovereign-debt-as-it-grinds-towards-slump.html
Here is an article that shows which banks have the biggest exposures to Dubai:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34171816
November 28th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
thnx. I was looking for this list. Wonders, wonders….C is in the top 5. LIB.
Societe Generale’s latest comments on a potential collapse:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html
November 28th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
It a nice way of putting to make it easy to understand. So I presume you’re thinking it may happen but far from how severe they see it?