StockTock.com discusses the confusing news events and fundamentals of the economy. We have never been more grateful to have the charts to guide us. The S&P showed impressive resilience today, finishing higher by 8 points despite a pummeling of the GSEs and higher oil prices. The S&P and XLF held important support levels (1263.50 and 19.75, respectively) and the path of least resistance remains higher in the short-term. The dollar is holding its recent gains while oil and natural gas closed higher but remain in downtrends. We analyze “flight to safety” vehicles for an indication of the market’s next move. We look at SPY, XLF, FRE, FNM, GS, UUP, USO, UNG, VIX, TNX, and GLD. Watch for a bullish WV pattern on the ES tomorrow. And if anyone has answers or ideas about my opening questions, please share them in the comments section. Thanks.
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3:58pm
Bullish action in the S&P today, closing higher by 8 points despite GSE concerns and higher oil. Stay tuned for today’s video.
In our last entry on Elliot Wave Theory, we presented a chart of the S&P that assumed the current bear market was a primary downtrend. We showed the bear market unfolding in five waves, of which we are currently in the third. However, there is another possibility. What if the current bear market is merely [...]
StockTock.com discusses the market’s weakness and how to trade it. The market appears to be on the brink of a major breakdown, however, one final push higher to a double top level is still a possibility. The XLF is weak but holding its channel. The 10-year treasury bond is testing important support. The US dollar pulled back slightly, boosting commodities such as gold. We use Elliot Wave Theory to predict the market’s next major move. We also touch on LEH, GS, and USO.
Financials are looking very weak, but StockTock remains on the sidelines until the XLF breaks out of its trading channel. The XLF has resistance at 22.50/22.75 and support at 19.75/19.90. A break below 19.75 is our sell signal and should lead to a retest of the lows under 17. Until then, watch for financials to [...]
3:55pm
The ES held 1263.50. The counter-trend rally may have one final push higher left in the tank, but its looks as though the downtrend is likely to continue in short order. Stay tuned for today’s video.
If you are not familiar with Elliot Wave Theory, I highly recommend you do some reading on the subject (Wikipedia has a useful description). According to Elliot Wave Theory, a bear market will unfold in five major waves.
A look at the S&P reveals that we are currently in the middle of Wave 3, which is [...]
StockTock.com discusses today’s market action that should be viewed as liberation from options expiration. The dollar and equities pulled back, while several commodities bounced. Watch for this trend to continue in the short-term. We look at important support and resistance levels for the S&P. We don’t want to trade financials until we see a break of the XLF channel. We also touch on UUP, GLD, USO, UNG, and FNM. CORRECTION: When speaking about the Descending Bear Market Trendline, I mention resistance levels 1262 and 1256. I meant to say 1362 and 1356!
4:15pm
The markets traded lower today after being liberated from the manipulation of options expiration. The S&P broke below its ascending trendline but saved its uptrend by not making a lower low. Stay tuned for today’s video. (click image to enlarge)
Goldman Sachs made the reversal in the US Dollar official on Friday when analyst Fiona Lake said, “The fundamental picture for the dollar has improved substantially in recent weeks… As a result, we now think the dollar has bottomed.” Obviously, no analyst call makes a technical event official, but Goldman’s track record is impressive and [...]
