Financials are looking very weak, but StockTock remains on the sidelines until the XLF breaks out of its trading channel. The XLF has resistance at 22.50/22.75 and support at 19.75/19.90. A break below 19.75 is our sell signal and should lead to a retest of the lows under 17. Until then, watch for financials to [...]

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3:55pm
The ES held 1263.50. The counter-trend rally may have one final push higher left in the tank, but its looks as though the downtrend is likely to continue in short order. Stay tuned for today’s video.

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If you are not familiar with Elliot Wave Theory, I highly recommend you do some reading on the subject (Wikipedia has a useful description). According to Elliot Wave Theory, a bear market will unfold in five major waves.

A look at the S&P reveals that we are currently in the middle of Wave 3, which is [...]

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StockTock.com discusses today’s market action that should be viewed as liberation from options expiration. The dollar and equities pulled back, while several commodities bounced. Watch for this trend to continue in the short-term. We look at important support and resistance levels for the S&P. We don’t want to trade financials until we see a break of the XLF channel. We also touch on UUP, GLD, USO, UNG, and FNM. CORRECTION: When speaking about the Descending Bear Market Trendline, I mention resistance levels 1262 and 1256. I meant to say 1362 and 1356!

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4:15pm
The markets traded lower today after being liberated from the manipulation of options expiration. The S&P broke below its ascending trendline but saved its uptrend by not making a lower low. Stay tuned for today’s video. (click image to enlarge)

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Goldman Sachs made the reversal in the US Dollar official on Friday when analyst Fiona Lake said, “The fundamental picture for the dollar has improved substantially in recent weeks… As a result, we now think the dollar has bottomed.” Obviously, no analyst call makes a technical event official, but Goldman’s track record is impressive and [...]

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Earlier today, one of our visitors asked for my thoughts on the XLF:
Some of my trading decisions are based on the “Double Crossover”. I assume your familiar with it but its when the 20SMA crosses over the 5EMA. XLF has just crossed which seems like it may be time to buy SKF. What do you [...]

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On Friday, Peter posted:
Hi. I think we might see a bounce in oil next week. What stocks would you recommend getting in to, if we see a rising oil price?
Peter, I try to keep my trading ideas as simple as possible. If you think oil is going to rise, you could get long USO, which [...]

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2:31pm
I am heading down to the Cape for a weekend getaway, so there will be no video today. I will try to post one over the weekend, maybe on Sunday. Everyone have a great weekend!

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StockTock.com discusses today’s action and the phenomenal day trade that we called out in our intraday commentary. We discuss the mechanics of options expiration and look ahead to a possible commodity bounce beginning next week. The ascending trendline on the S&P worked as support again today, but is unlikely to work as well in the future. There will be no video tomorrow because I am going to be out of town, but I will try to get something posted over the weekend.

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