Traders must quickly adapt their views on the market as the charts fill out and provide new information. Earlier this week, I saw the market in a very bearish pennant pattern that would have led to a massive selloff. This is still a possibility. However, it now looks as though the market is trading in [...]

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4:00pm
ES 10m: Market got whippy in the last half hour, but managed to hold the 50MA.

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StockTock.com discusses the market action and what it means to our outlook. The market remains very vulnerable to a dramatic selloff. While the S&P was able to break above the triangle’s trendline, it did not violate Elliot Wave Theory. As long as the S&P does not trade above $986, the pennant breakdown scenario remains on the table. Interestingly enough, the S&P closed above its 20-day moving average for the first time since September 19, which happened to mark the end of wave 2 of 3(3). The VIX may also be a 20MA support. Keep an open mind and focus first and foremost on risk management.

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Stay tuned for today’s analysis. Interesting market action and lot’s of possibilities to discuss. My crash call is still on the table, but the market has not cooperated to this point. Today’s close above “The Mother of all Trendlines” should be respected, even though it was an inside day (within yesterday’s range) and on relatively [...]

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The following analysis is based on my interpretation of the charts. My intent here is to explain why I am positioning myself for a historic fall in the stock market. This analysis is a substitute for today’s video, which I simply do not have the energy to record. Traders need sleep.

Here is Wave 3 of [...]

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My view on the market has not changed. I almost lost my sanity today, but I did not lose my conviction!
Also, I am disappointed that the Intraday Commentary has turned into a somewhat of a Yahoo Message Board. I am thinking a lot about this and promise to do something about it.

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The market may be presenting one of the greatest trading opportunities in history!
I should have seen it earlier. This is not a triangle pattern, it’s a pennant! What’s the difference?

A breakdown from a triangle would be roughly equal to the length of the triangle at its widest point. In this case, that measures to about [...]

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StockTock.com discusses today’s rally and what it might mean to the outlook. There is no shortage of opinions on this market and I want to emphasize that the only opinion that matters is the market’s. If you keep an open mind and listen to the charts, you will make money regardless of which way the market goes. We look at the various scenarios that could play out and then simplify the whole thing down to one simple trendline.

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One of StockTock’s goals when we launched the site was to keep our analysis clear and simple. It doesn’t get much simpler than this.
SPX 60m: The Mother of all Trendlines

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Here is the second of two possible scenarios that I see playing out.
Update: There is a 3rd scenario as well. See today’s video and DanEric40’s EWT Update.

The S&P is trading is a descending triangle. Today’s rally closed right at resistance (just high enough to kiss it), setting up a sharp fall lower tomorrow. We saw [...]

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