Author Archive for StockTock Social
This post by Shanky has been promoted from StockTock Social.
I’ll just kill the suspense and tell you – SURPRISE – I like an up scenario. I know we will have a horrible jobs number tomorrow and it will get worse. Remember everything is priced in – don’t forget that. Bottom line is we are thru the majority of earnings season so the bad news flow should fall off some (at least in the major news sources that pump you with all the feel good giddy-up crud). The O is hard at work with his market manipulators and the media to get this market going in the right direction. Good or bad, it’s what they think needs to be done.
Here is the chart with the three options:
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.
Whenever I project wave patterns I always begin with the “ideal” structure in mind. I start with that template because sometimes it happens that way.
I have charted the rally likely to happen this next week to finish out corrective wave 2 of 5. I would suspect the 50DMA gets touched one last time. It currently resides at 877 SPX. Also the huge gap at 867-871 to get closed.
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.
Primary Count:
Market finished tracing out wave 1 of intermediate wave 5 down from 944 peak. Wave 2 started up today at the 917 low. Wave 2 appears to be tracing a zig zag.
Commentary:
The gap is an inviting target for wave 2 as a minimum. From 867-871 it also coincides with 38% Fib retracement.
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.
Well turns out that wave 5 peaked yesterday of the second zig zag move from 741 low. Thats the problem with these zig zag moves, the upper portion channels wedgy and can fool you into thinking it has one more wave up. That is why I have learned to go short near the peak of wave 3.
We know it peaked because wave 4 couldn’t breech 884.63 (wave 1 price range). It did and by a mile so the 5 wave move up is over. Downside volume and breadth was not too terrible so its hard to say intermediate wave 4 is over just yet.
So what comes next?
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.
Primary Count:
SPX is tracing a 5 wave move in the second half of a zig zag of a double zig zag structure from 741 low. The 914.66 was a 1.711 expansion of wave 1 and landed in the solid resistance bands from 912-918. The move up has advanced 63% of the 100 point move in the first half of this zig zag. If C = A then your looking at 951. If C = 76% then 927. But resistance bands will determine the extent of the rally. If the market can hurdle over 918 resistance and use that as support, it could run all the way to 938-940. Either way the short term charts RSI/Stochs are screaming for a correction and even the 60 minute is nearing a short term high and due to correct.
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.
Primary Count:
Market heads higher Monday to continue finishing out the second half of the second zig zag in a double zig zag structure.
Could the last move up fail? Sure but it would take a jarring event to do it. The auto bankruptcy almost looked like it was going to tank the market real hard (futures did tank) but it recovered nicely. So all in all the zig zag structure is still in play.
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social. As always, we appreicate Dan for taking the time to share his analysis.
Primary Count:
Markets are consolidating for an eventual push above near term resistance areas in each index. A 5 wave move up would complete a giant double zig zag pattern
Secondary Count:
Markets are consolidating for a move DOWN to the lower end of the trading range (maybe 820). Markets may not have enough bullishness left to get over key resistance areas.
Commentary:
Yeah I know! I kinda called both sides! But for now I have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. The fact is that there are a lot of indicators and indices and they are a bit in conflict at the moment. Some are bullish some are bearish.
This post by Unersaettlich has been promoted from StockTock Social.
I have to chime in with Dan, Ed and Paul here. The most likely near-term scenario still appears to be a re-test or break of the 741 low. The chart below shows that current developments do not significantly differ from other denouements of bear-market rallies in the past, including several antecedent to this chart. It is possible in particular to find many patterns that appear to be nascent H&S bottoms, but all fail to rocket up through the “neckline” on volume, and, indeed, usually just finish the “right shoulder” right before a significant plunge:
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.
Primary count:
Today Green wave 2 traced out an ABC flat correction with the “C” leg as the end of day high. Downside should come soon tomorrow, if this is indeed the pattern.
Well 800 didn’t happen. I have learned in this market that you pick a target and subtract 10-15 SPX points and you’ll get your likely REAL target.
This post by Daneric40 has been promoted from StockTock Social.
Primary Count: SPX is in the end stages of a zig zag 5-3-5 move up from 741 low. 910 is the target before a significant pullback.
Alternate Count: SPX peaked late Friday at 897.
Second Alternate Count: SPX is headed to a higher target of 914-918 before a pullback and consolidation.
