Woo:

11:05 PST -

SPX – 1 month/5 min

Woo:

SPX 1 month 10:40 am PST

IOC by request:

very quick draft based on request. if i could spend an hour on it i would, but alas…i have a job…

watch for a break below that long term trend line on IOC and ride it down to the $45 area.

Idan:

11:55am
Those that are following me on twitter: korenidan87, know that yesterday i said: “If the bears want to push the market back down for a new wave, it would be hear, and only here”. I took small SDS position in anticipation as we hit the 50 SMA daily… I now have a trailing stop, I would like to see the volume pick up.

3:36pm
Possible target based on fibs for BIDU is 531.

3:12pm
AAPL seems to be forming a H&S on the daily. So far the market is not doing much, but if we do get another wave down (which i think might be the case) as soon as AAPL breaks it’s 20 SMA daily, it’ll get enough momentum to break it’s H&S neckline at 190 and probably start a correction.

The following is not a once-in-a-lifetime coincidence. It is a natural consequence of how stock chart geometry develops.

Continue reading the rest of this post… »

Here’s a chart of UAUA since most people were talking about it… I think it’s done going up for now… A break of 14.90 would (to the downside) would confirm it, I think we might get stronger pushes lower on this name. Or at least a retrace to the 14$ level:

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From Idan:

Hey everyone, the Fed just raised the discount rates up to 0.75%… the market is now down 0.8% afterhours…. what i’m worried about now is 2 things:

1. Do you really think we are out of the woods yet?

2. What is the CPI number going to be like tomorrow morning?

Continue reading the rest of this post… »

2:22pm
My 110.40 still holding like a champ, it is also the 10,300 dow jones 50% retrace of the whole bear market. If we do break this to the upside, i don’t see the bears bringing this market down. But the dollar right now is rallying due to weakness in greece and it’s putting a damp on gold.

1:46am
I am currently sick with the flu… which sucks. But here’s a 60 minute SPY and fib retracement. Today we basically hit the 50% retracement. The 50% retracement when we fell in P1 was the major resistance, so i expect it to be the major resistance for P3. That said, a small peak to my black trendline 110.40-110.50 is also possible. Today’s action was definitely bullish, and if we do hit 110.40-110.50 we have a potential for a large inverse head and shoulders. The bears really must get back to pushing the markets down very very soon if we are to go lower, if not we’re back to new highs.

Markets are closed today, but feel free to talk about charts and different set ups that you see into tuesday’s marketing day. Hope you had a good valentines day, and received beautiful flowers.

Continue reading the rest of this post… »

If your a bear holding front month options (like me), you’re probably ready to throw Elliot Wave Analysis out the window. You might have even covered your positions in frustration. In times like these, I try to hold to my convictions, provided they are backed up by rigorous rational thought. Wave Minuette (ii) of Minute [iii] is taking its sweet old time, subdividing into complex patterns of lower degree. Remember, corrective waves are much more difficult to count than impulsive waves, and Minuette (ii) is no exception. This count is borrowed from Kenny over at Kenny’s Technical Analysis Blog.  It shows Minuette (ii) tracing a double zigzag, which consists of a 5-3-5 zigzag for W, a 3-3-3-3-3 triangle for X, and a 5-3-5 zigzag for Y, with the last 5 in the form of an ending diagonal. The final 5th wave of the ending diagonal could complete Tuesday or perhaps ends truncated, allowing for a gap down Tuesday morning when the markets reopen. If you’re new to counting waves, don’t get thrown off by the WXY notation. Just think of them as an ABC. When counting zigzags, we use WXY for double zigzags and WXYXZ for triple zigzags. Could Minuette (ii) trace a triple zigzag? It’s possible, but I think unlikely given how long Minuette (ii) has already lasted (nearly twice as long as wave 1).

Holding front month options into expiration poses a great deal of risk. Historically, expiration does not end well for option buyers because stocks are manipulated by larger institutional players (ie. banks, hedge funds, prop trading desks, etc) so that stock prices close where option buyers make the least amount of money. There is a great site, optionpain.com, that calculates the “max pain” price for any stock ticker. When I type in SPY, it shows me that option sellers would pay out the least amount of money if the SPY closes at $110 on Friday. That is $2 higher from where it is now. Try it for yourself and you will see that option sellers prefer higher prices for most stocks and ETFs by Friday. If the wave count above is correct, I don’t see this expiration working out for these larger players. And when they become aware of it, you will see some real dumping as they try to hedge or reverse their positions. I guess this all makes sense if we are on the cusp of wave (iii) of [iii].