SPX 30-Minute
Minuette wave 3 may be underway. Today’s low may have marked the end of wave b, but I suspect Minuette wave 2 is already over.

XLF Daily
Financials are leading this market, and

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Today: Post all your trades as you make them! I’m interested to see what trades you guys are making these days!

Here’s the 60 minute SPY with the red descending channel and major resistance areas! If we break back below 1054 we might see some more downside, to break 1045.



New update on Sunday, 11:40pm

What are your thoughts on the market? Where do you expect markets will go monday-tuesday of next week? Share your charts here!

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ON DECK: Wave 3 of 3
In my opinion, wave 3 of 3 is on deck (Minuette 3 of Minute 3 of Minor 1 of Intermediate 1 of Primary 3 of Cycle C… see Elliot Wave Notation). Today’s close will create some bullishness from the talking heads over the weekend. Maybe it lasts through Monday-Tuesday. The renewed optimism is expected right before a wave 3 of 3. Do not be fooled. I’m holding February puts in SPY, QQQQ, XLF, and some individual stocks.

The recent moves in the dollar, gold, and oil are not signs of a healthy market. Most people are still dismissing debt concerns as overblown (just heard Doug Kass say this!). I think structural problems in the global economy are just beginning to be exposed. I remain bearish on just about any hard asset, including gold. Deflation will be a common dinner table discussion in the near future. The US Dollar will continue to run. I expect this Bear will slice through “support” levels as if they were not even there. Valuations are based on faith, not growth. We are about to witness what happens to a faith-based economy when faith erodes.

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5:32pm
The market did it’s thing and now we have to change our lines based on the action. Instead of using prior closes for candles to draw my trendline, I now have to use the lows which shifts the trendline slightly down. Here’s the 240 min SPX;

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Here’s my primary count. Minute wave 2 traced a flat and now Minute wave 3 is here. You can see how much larger the structure is than Minute wave 1. This move lower should be very powerful, and we saw an example of its power today.

3:49pm
Tomorrow we have january’s jobs number which will shift the markets quite  a lot, but the charts point to more downside of at least 2-3%.

2:43pm
A bear victory today would be a true close below 107.30 on the SPY… that was our last level of support, and i think we will break it this time around (with a potential for a slight hourly bounce).

2:05pm
wooooo, the gold triangle worked like a charm. We got the exact move up, and now the breakdown to the south. 60 min:

12:01am
On monday-tuesday we got the exact rally we were hoping for. We had a massive rally up to the 38.2% retracement stopping right at the 110.40 level. Yesterday, even though the market did go down, the market action was not necessarily too bearish. The SPY managed to hold above 109.50 the whole day. I would like to see that break to the downside before i start shorting hard. As most of you alraedy know we made about 5% on our BDK trade and around 3-4% on our EW (I got stopped out from both). BPI we’re still holding, hoping for another few up days, however we are moving the stop back up to $14.60 to limit our loss. Here’s a 60 minute of the SPY, and you can see where resistance is, and why 109.50 is important support. If we break 110.40, we’ll probably see the 50% retracement.

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4:10 PM
Primary count still a double zig-zag for Minute wave 2. Alternate flat count still a possibility to be aware of (see bottom of post).

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3:00pm
A break of 109.55 to the downside will be the trigger for the continuation of this sell off .. so far my 110.40 level has been holding very nicely but there’s obviously an inverse H&S on the 10 minute SPY over the last 4 days.

2:50am
The market his my target of 110.40 on the SPY… this is the 38.2% retracement of the move lower thus far. While this would be the place where i’d feel comfortable to short, yesterday’s performance was a little too bullish to go confidently short, I would like to see an intra day reversal first or a break of the wedge formations formed by the last 2 days of trading in financials (XLF, GS , etc…). You can take some SDS with a stop 0.4% out… or short SPY 110.40 with a stop slightly above yesterday’s highs maybe 110.65.

Here is another S&P count I am watching that has Minute wave 2 tracing a 3-3-5 Flat. This count is interesting because it takes out the wave 4 triangle with the short e-wave that never quite sat well with me. Thoughts?