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02
Jul
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$DJUSRE, the Dow-jones US Real Estate index, which URE and SRS lever, has just made a bear cross of the 20-day MA down thru the rising 50-day MA. If things close this way a few days, well, look what happened the last time this and all the other beargasms occurred:
Also notice that $DJUSRE and its shorter-term MAs never reached the 200-day MA, making this one of the most bearish charts among the indices levered by the ETFs many of us trade.
Comparable charts of other indices ($DJUSFN instead of $RIFIN for Financials because $RIFIN has no 200-day MA yet), approximately in order from most to least bearish:
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From Idan’s blog:
“One thing to note is that we haven’t had a close below the 90.20 level on the 10 minute charts… so as soon as you see that happens, if that happens, you KNOW we’re going lower…”
Thanks for the heads-up!
what was the Dow and SP500 at during the 139.90 and 120.00?
July 2nd, 2009 at 1:30 pm
See charts of several indices added above.
good job
Trigger?
An economy bigger than Russia, Brazil, Canada, India or Spain is in imminent risk of defaulting on its debts.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/07/economy-bigger-than-russia-brazil.html
July 2nd, 2009 at 2:59 pm
“Eye needt yoor kloze, yoor boodts, undt yoor modorzykel.”
“Meye mizshn iss too prodekt yoo.”
“Eye swear eye vill nodt kill anyvun.”
“No problemo.”
“Chill oudt, dickwad.”
U -da – man Uner. Super find.
I just googled ma pattern and ST post for scott came up at the top of the search!
It is in UNG. Does not look good.
Happy 4th.
many thanks Professor Uner…mostly in the bear position this weekend “all cash”….happy 4th!
sweet pimp slapping the bulls
Don’t we have a golden cross on DJIA?
July 2nd, 2009 at 6:32 pm
That is the kind of golden cross bulls do not want to see. The 50dMA will probably soon top out and make a death cross back down thru the 200dMA, just as the 20dMA is likely doing (and the 20dMA will probably also make a bear cross down thru the 50dMA). This is true for most, if not all, of the daily index charts above.
I decided to stay in cash over the holiday and pile in long after we get oversold. Any equities did not get crushed today and showed excellent strength in market weakness.
If you all stay short at 880ish, I think you will lose a huge bounce.
This sell off was caused by the bulls, not the bears.
July 2nd, 2009 at 7:36 pm
we will see
July 2nd, 2009 at 7:38 pm
I sold out of FAZ after hours and now am likewise all cash. FAZ had risen to 5.22 and was heading back down. It continued dropping after I sold, and now is back to 5.15, almost back to 5.13 where it closed. Sometimes the thing to do is take the money and run. I left some money on the table here and there, but have swing-traded FAZ for a 40% gain net of commissions in less than a month.
July 2nd, 2009 at 7:56 pm
Faz was a good trade – congrats…..but was intirely due to sentiment and jobs report coming where they did….otherwise, it would be at $4.00 right now. That is too much of a gamble to win in the long run. May as well play craps.
FAZ must be the worse bet in the world right now in my opinion. The financials will be the July bullish catalyst….albiet some sell on the news because profit will be huge but projections will be horrible.
July 2nd, 2009 at 8:11 pm
FAS in at 7.50 (when this sell signal peeters out)
out at 15.00 after 2q bank earnings catalyst.
15$ aug calls are 0.08 cents!
July 2nd, 2009 at 8:59 pm
I just buy FAZ when it lances an hourly chart’s lower Bollinger Band and RSI(14) is around 30 or preferably 20, and hooking under. I sell it when it spikes the upper BB and RSI(14) is >70 or preferably >80, which happened today.
http://i39.tinypic.com/k9bbic.png
I also look at a similar chart of the financials. They have a lot of support near current levels.
It works pretty well so far.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:36 pm
Sounds good but I wonder what would have happened if the jobs report was the opposite.
July 2nd, 2009 at 10:49 pm
if my aunt had a penis, she’d be my uncle.
July 3rd, 2009 at 1:07 am
I heard your aunt does.
July 3rd, 2009 at 9:47 am
Nothing compels anyone to sell on a bad day. I can wait. Many StockTockers hyperactively trade too many securities far too often. The objective seems to be pursuing trading as a hobby rather than making money. Commissions are a major expense. I trade at most about ten times a month, and only follow a few ETFs and indices. Trading individual stocks means doing a lot of DD and worrying about exposure of single companies to exogenous unpredictable events. None of that applies to indices and sectors.
I just make sure to buy at what is most likely a good price. I have the patience to wait until I can sell at a good price, trading decent swings along the way, but I am also not too proud to dump a position if the buy price turns out to have been a longer-term mistake. If a peak turns out not to be a peak, I will chase (I sold at 4.62 and reloaded at 4.65 less than 24 hours later, then held until selling out at 5.18). FAZ/FAS and URE/SRS move by larger percentages than other securities, so they are my most frequent vehicles. All else is mostly noise.